Commissar
Banned
The point here is that the war itself was not going to be much diferent, even without the Pearl Harbor Raid. If the Kido Butai, due to some reason, could not execute its mission, it would simply turn back to repair and restore its equipement. The other aiffairs in the Grand Plan of the Japanese in taking controll of East Asia, would go on, as most moves were already underway to do so.
The attack on Pearl Harbor would only basically delay the planned destruction of the USN Pacific Fleet, whichwas even more realistic with the USN battlefleet at sea, given the poor AA outfit of the battleships and their vulnerablity against torpedodamage. Something simmilar like the sinking of the HMS Prince of Wales and Repulse, but on a much bigger scale could be expected, since the USN was still traditionally a battleshipnavy. More importantly, the ships sunk at sea, would be lost for ever, while those in the OTL in Pearl were lucky to settle in shallow waters inside a port.
Essentially the USN was blessed in the OTL, as the Pearl Harbor Attack removed the useless slow battleships of the Pacific Fleet and forced the USN to make use of its aircraft carrier forces as primary weapons of choice, rahter than the slow battleshipforce.
1. No U.S. BB was sunk while under its own power at sea by air attack.
2. U.S. BBs had the most comprehensive AA package of any navy and the most advanced director system. The British ships were given the shoddiest directors for their AAs and the crews were ill trained.
3. Given the conditions of this op and the political necessity of relieving the PI, plan orange will go forward.
4. With no Pearl Strike, Hitler is unlikely to declare war and will wait for developments. Which effectively postpones his declaration for good.
5. This means once Wake is relieved, a flying column of transports carrying a National Guard Regiment, supplies, and some 20-30 Light Tanks will be rushed to the Philippines under the Pacific Fleet's escort.
6. Kido Butai will be out of the picture for a year at least as they fix themselves.