Kido Butai: After the Wave

Commissar

Banned
The point here is that the war itself was not going to be much diferent, even without the Pearl Harbor Raid. If the Kido Butai, due to some reason, could not execute its mission, it would simply turn back to repair and restore its equipement. The other aiffairs in the Grand Plan of the Japanese in taking controll of East Asia, would go on, as most moves were already underway to do so.

The attack on Pearl Harbor would only basically delay the planned destruction of the USN Pacific Fleet, whichwas even more realistic with the USN battlefleet at sea, given the poor AA outfit of the battleships and their vulnerablity against torpedodamage. Something simmilar like the sinking of the HMS Prince of Wales and Repulse, but on a much bigger scale could be expected, since the USN was still traditionally a battleshipnavy. More importantly, the ships sunk at sea, would be lost for ever, while those in the OTL in Pearl were lucky to settle in shallow waters inside a port.

Essentially the USN was blessed in the OTL, as the Pearl Harbor Attack removed the useless slow battleships of the Pacific Fleet and forced the USN to make use of its aircraft carrier forces as primary weapons of choice, rahter than the slow battleshipforce.


1. No U.S. BB was sunk while under its own power at sea by air attack.

2. U.S. BBs had the most comprehensive AA package of any navy and the most advanced director system. The British ships were given the shoddiest directors for their AAs and the crews were ill trained.

3. Given the conditions of this op and the political necessity of relieving the PI, plan orange will go forward.

4. With no Pearl Strike, Hitler is unlikely to declare war and will wait for developments. Which effectively postpones his declaration for good.

5. This means once Wake is relieved, a flying column of transports carrying a National Guard Regiment, supplies, and some 20-30 Light Tanks will be rushed to the Philippines under the Pacific Fleet's escort.

6. Kido Butai will be out of the picture for a year at least as they fix themselves.
 
The problem was that they were attacking the Philippines about the same time. And Guam and Wake. And had their ambassador delivering a declaration of war. No, Japan isn't going to be able to avoid fighting here.

The DOW was delivered a full day later. But yes, fair enough. But will those attacks produce enough bile? Guam, Wake, and Midway, no. Phillipines, meh...

I had forgotten about the midget subs though, thanks for reminding me. They're not going to be very effective regardless however (were midget subs ever particularly effective?)

Well the Wee Vee hit was supposedly, depending on the sources.

That's what I was thinking, more or less. Likely we might see some of the early plans for invading Taiwan and China come off to get bases for B-29s and B-17s to pound Japan.

Concerning the Japanese mini submarines, here are two good links covering the latest information on the subs at Pearl Harbor. The first link is a long and informative discussion thread; the second is a website about the minisub attack.

http://www.j-aircraft.org/smf/index.php?topic=8601.0
http://i-16tou.com/

Beat ya to the first one. ;)

Thanks for the info Dilvish. I thought I remembered the second sub getting in, but it seems that is highly debatable at best. Most likely only one midget got into PH proper.

Without the air attack, the fleet response is far more muted. Kimmel is still trying to confirm Outerbridge's report of the Ward sinking a midget just after 6:30. So maybe that one midget gets into position - but then what? Weren't the midgets supposed to wait for the air attack before firing? I think I remember that from somewhere or other.

Even if it puts two torps into one BB, all it does is prove Japan has attacked, while accomplishing very little. Even if say, California sinks, it has minimal effect by itself on the US fleet.

Fizzle, like I said when I posted that. :p

Nagumo is likely to run for home with his damaged charges. I would expect no Carrier attack on Wake, and very possibly the second IJN landing fails or gets dropped entirely. Fletcher brings the reinforcements on Tangier into harbor and Wake remains a Marine air station for the duration of the war.

Likely.

Assuming the carriers themselves do not sustain damage, which is very unlikely (carriers have lots of flat surfaces that tend to get crumpled by heavy waves like that described here, IJN carriers are especially vunerable given the design of their forward flight deck and its exposed supports, allowing a wave to get under the flight deck www.globalsecurity.org/.../akagi-cv-schem.htm), the Japanese are unlikely to suddenly gain a perspective that eluded them during a year of planning.

Indeed.

Unlike our 70 years later informed view, the USN submarine force was not seen as a threat, the admin offices were beneath contempt from a military perspective, and the fuel farm was NOT, despite the latter day revisionist dreams, a reasonable military target. No, assuming Nagumo is willing to press on with 70-80 attack aircraft, he is much more likely to rearm as many of his B5N as possible with torpedoes. It would delay the strike, not that the strike was going to be leaving anytime soon as was. It would take several hours to clear the deck park (the IJN didn't use tow vehicles so we are talking manual labor to clear the decks), perhaps too long to even spot what is left of the 2nd wave.

There would not be time to launch the 2nd wave, even if it left on schedule, recover the aircraft, refuel, rearm, and relaunch in time to reach Oahu while it is still full daylight. Landing would be in full dark, in fairly rough seas (assuming that the weather is otherwise the asme as IOTL save the rouge wave). The second wave lost a number of aircraft to mission kills due to land accident IOTL due to the weather.

What I expected.

Anywho, I'm still curious as to who eats the first atom bomb in this scenario. Mayhapse a Havana exchange?
 
1. No U.S. BB was sunk while under its own power at sea by air attack.

2. U.S. BBs had the most comprehensive AA package of any navy and the most advanced director system. The British ships were given the shoddiest directors for their AAs and the crews were ill trained.

3. Given the conditions of this op and the political necessity of relieving the PI, plan orange will go forward.

4. With no Pearl Strike, Hitler is unlikely to declare war and will wait for developments. Which effectively postpones his declaration for good.

5. This means once Wake is relieved, a flying column of transports carrying a National Guard Regiment, supplies, and some 20-30 Light Tanks will be rushed to the Philippines under the Pacific Fleet's escort.

6. Kido Butai will be out of the picture for a year at least as they fix themselves.


This is a severe underestimation of reality in december 1941.

Point one is irrelevant so far, as no USN BB was operating at sea in enemy controlled parts of the Pacific, while the British did. USN BB's only operated when under CAP from own carrier fighters, later in the war.

2. USN BB's of the december 1941 to decemder 1942 period were absoluytely inferior to British and German BB´s in AA outfit, since they only mounted a few, manually controlled heavy AA guns and almost no light rapid fire guns, appart from useless 50 cal M2´s. 20mm and 40mm were not to be fitted untill late 1942.
Secondly, the USN Battleships of the period mentioned were weakly constructed and vulnerable to underwaterdamage, as they were constructed in a time, when torpedoes and aircraft were not yet mature. Unlike a modern fast battleship, the older pre 1914 designs were slow and less capable of absorbing serious hits of especially torpedoes and AP bombs. (Only a few had had their decks strengthenedbetween the wars.) It should be noted that five out of seven BB´s in the port of Pearl Harbor in the OTL actually sank after being torpedoed, although one was partly disabled due to mainentance of her watertight doors and one already blew up due to a bombhit. (USS Pennsylvania discounted as she was in a drydock) USS Oklahoma, West Virginia, Nevada and Callifornia all settled at the bottom, due to the flooding caused by the holes made in their hulls.

3. In the case the USA did go to war, without the Pearl Harbor Attack, the support for doing so would be politically less strong, as the USA were not attacked themselves first. Perhaps in 2001, such a thing could happen, but not in 1941. The USA insisted that it would be attacked, before going to war.

4. Hitler might not have declared war, but as well he might, since Hitler was not the kind of person known for making rational decissions.

5. Wake was only a sideshow and lacked the basical needs to become a major hub for the war and the support of the Pacific Fleet. If it could be held by the US forces, it was fine, but that was all. The base was on too small an island to become a stagingpoint for the assault on Japanese controlled parts in the Pacific.

6. The Kido Butai could loose lots of aircraft but these would be replaced by airgroups originally based elsewhere (other carriers) and regrouped on the bigger ones. The only problem would be to train new aviators for the aircraft needed on other parts of the Fleet, or wherever they might be needed. So on the short term, the loss was not so problematic, but in the long term, it would be.
 

CalBear

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Ah, the expert has arrived. Now we are getting somewhere! :)

CalBear, in your judgment as one of our Pacific experts... any real chance that Nagumo, given the ball-kicking the universe just gave him, and his less than total comfort with the PH plan going into the operation, actually launches any attack?

I'd say no. He takes his battered ships and runs for it. And doesn't slow down a wink for Wake or Yamamoto or much of anything else.

Yamamoto may want to kill him, but when he sees the crumpled flight deck supports on the carriers sailing into harbor... he might even admit Nagumo was right.


Nagumo was a very dedicated, professional officer. If it was possible to accomplish the mission, even with a 50% chance of success, he would have proceeded because he would find it a matter of duty and honor.

It all comes down to his losses, especially in deck crew and among his armorers and engine space crew. The way that a rouge wave as described would have shaken the ships caught in its wake like a rat in a terrier's grip resulting in snapped ankles and broken bones across the ship, not to mention the fatalities caused by lovely things like being tossed into a moving propeller blades.

The losses in deck crews has already been discussed briefly but, like everyone who has posted, I neglected to bring up the losses among below deck personnel. Armorers would have been scythed down by rolling ordnance while engine space crewmen would have been tossed into machinery and other lethal bits of metal.

I can envision Nagumo proceeding with the attack even if he only had two usable decks, assuming he had fully staffed crews, while he ordered his damaged ships home.

Another, altogether separate concern for Nagumo, one that might well determine if he continued with the attack, is the state of his escort. The Kido Butai sailed with what, to USN standards, was an entirely inadequate escort. For his six carriers Nagumo only had a total of seven destroyers, a single light cruiser, two heavy cruisers and two fast battleships. The destroyers, all Kagero class, were only 2022 tons displacement, an 80 foot wave would have capsized, if not simply inundated and sunk, any of the DD it caught. Even the CL Abukuma, at only 5500 tons, and a 16 foot draft, would have been in some serious danger of sinking, while the Tone and her sister would likely have their combat effectiveness ruined due to smashed upper works. Even the two BB would likely have suffered near total losses in their AAA crews, at least those manning the 40mm and lighter guns. With a crippled escort force, not to mention the possibility that the same sort of disaster had befallen his replenishment ships (such as they were) it would not be unreasonable for Nagumo to decide his entire force, the IJN's entire mobile striking force, was in danger. His orders did not allow him to risk the destruction of the entire Kido Butai.

So to, finally, answer your question: It depends. :D
 
The DOW was delivered a full day later. But yes, fair enough. But will those attacks produce enough bile? Guam, Wake, and Midway, no. Phillipines, meh...

Well, I made that point that they would produce less bile. And I see that as a good thing, it may make it less likely for some of the skankier things the US did in WWII to happen. Regardless, it's irrelevant as far as Japan is concerned--they've still attacked us, they've still declared war. We're still going to fight them.

And don't forget that the US had actually been fighting the Germans for some time before the Pearl Harbor attack, either. Eventually, a German sub was going to do something nasty enough to the USN or USCG that the US would declare war on them, or Hitler et. al. would be so irritated by our lend-lease and escorting convoys that they would declare war on us. Since we're now actually at war alongside the Brits, we're only going to increase the flow of supplies to them. The bigger question for Europe is whether or not we extend lend-lease to the Soviets at that time, or instead focus on the Brits and China until we enter into the ETO.
 

burmafrd

Banned
Our old BBs were not that pathetic no matter what some claim. Plus our lighter ships had much better AA and our Destroyers were very good even earlier in the war. So despite some claims we would not have been overwhelmed if it came to a fleet action at sea. A lot of variables would have been different then what anyone thought at that time so who knows.

Now as regards Nagumo he was very worried about where OUR carriers were. With a much reduced capability he has to seriously wonder - the attack instead of early in the morning would not occur until almost noon at the earliest. So the surprise factor would be much less; the chances of being spotted were m uch higher and so on. So its a real question whether he decided to attack anyway. I disagree with Cal Bear about the Fuel Farm; if it can be set affire and badly damaged that would cause the USN to have to recall all its tankers (half of which had been sent towards the Atlantic) to make up for it. From a tactical point of view, that could be argued to be the best target that Nagumo could hit with the best chance of causing damage that would really hurt us for at least a few months. Now the big problem with that was that there was no practice hitting the fuel farm and they might not have known how to do it right. Though frankly if you can put a 1000 lb bomb in each tank it will get done.
 

CalBear

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The Fuel farm would require a bomb for every fuel tank. Nagumo, especially in the state under discussion, would have to dedicate the entire strike to the farm to have any effect. Most of the horizontal bombers would miss, and even the dive bombers would be less than 75% effective. When completing that task, the entire point of the mission, crippling the fleet would go uncompleted.

The U.S. had a MASSIVE civilian tanker fleet, in addition to the military oilers. Attacking the fuel farm might reduce the activities out of Pearl for a month, maybe even two. That wouldn't even be a blip, especially when one considers that the availability of the entire Battle Force in undamaged condition, along with four carriers, would be enough to take Wake back even with the fairly unsophisticated state of amphibious assault tactics in early 1942. The repossession of Wake, beyond the morale issues, would create a serious strategic shift from OTL.

Our old BBs were not that pathetic no matter what some claim. Plus our lighter ships had much better AA and our Destroyers were very good even earlier in the war. So despite some claims we would not have been overwhelmed if it came to a fleet action at sea. A lot of variables would have been different then what anyone thought at that time so who knows.

Now as regards Nagumo he was very worried about where OUR carriers were. With a much reduced capability he has to seriously wonder - the attack instead of early in the morning would not occur until almost noon at the earliest. So the surprise factor would be much less; the chances of being spotted were m uch higher and so on. So its a real question whether he decided to attack anyway. I disagree with Cal Bear about the Fuel Farm; if it can be set affire and badly damaged that would cause the USN to have to recall all its tankers (half of which had been sent towards the Atlantic) to make up for it. From a tactical point of view, that could be argued to be the best target that Nagumo could hit with the best chance of causing damage that would really hurt us for at least a few months. Now the big problem with that was that there was no practice hitting the fuel farm and they might not have known how to do it right. Though frankly if you can put a 1000 lb bomb in each tank it will get done.
 

Bearcat

Banned
So to, finally, answer your question: It depends. :D

Fair enough. :)

Kido Butai will also have no CAP until her decks are in shape to launch. Except perhaps for a few zeroes launched right at dawn. Nagumo knows he is surpassingly vulnerable.

He will consult with Genda, his air officer, about any possible attack. He has maybe two decks worth of aircraft in one wave to accomplish what he can (versus six decks in 2 waves IOTL).

I'm guessing with his deck crews shredded it will take hours to get them cleaned up and a strike spotted. Maybe even close to noon...

By then, the Pacific Fleet knows all about the initial attacks in Malaya and Guam and is about to hear from Wake. Nagumo knows his schedule is shot to hell. There will likely be at least some air opposition over Oahu. Ship crews are likely to be at least somewhat more prepared. The one midget sub in the harbor probably is still waiting around for the air attack - I think they were not supposed to shoot until the planes arrived IIRC. At least one is sunk outside the harbor, and likely by now the attention that drew has spotted at least one more. Not sure when that one midget was beached either.

If Nagumo continues, he will get a much warmer reception.

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