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Java and Timor are contested. Most other islands are captured as in OTL from what I can tell. The one big plus right now is that Japanese forces have not landed on Sumatra as of yet, and depending on how much of a resource drain Java and Timor become, the Japanese may eventually not have enough ships or army units available to land on the island of Sumatra. I'm not sure what defenses the Dutch have there, but just in case though, it would definitely be a wise idea for a British or other Commonwealth division to be deployed there.
Moresby had a decent anchorage, but not much in the way of port facilities.
In the context of just this timeline, Port Moresby would also be somewhat wasteful to develop at a major fleet anchorage also as the only really juicy target to strike from is probably Rabaul.
Speaking of which, it's apparent that some Japanese carriers are now back around Timor or Java again. Are the US carriers going near either island, or is New Caledonia and the Coral Sea about as far as Nimitz is willing to send them? If the latter is the case, what are the odds that Nimitz orders another attack against Rabaul by at least a couple carriers. I really don't see any conditions where a major naval engagement can or will occur anytime soon, and a third strike on the Japanese garrison may further cripple any chances of them using Rabaul as a staging ground for other targets. Who knows, by now maybe Halsey or whoever might find a couple of cruisers or something there this time.
The islands on the north side of the Java Sea are under Japanese control and economic exploitation. Bali is 100% Japanese and the less valuable Eastern chunks of java and central Timor are contested.
Story 1392
Timor Sea before dawn June 16, 1942
Two carriers turned into the wind. Fighters were soon airborne and then a few minutes later, half a dozen bombers were aloft for anti-submarine patrols. Scouting duty had been handed off to landbased bombers. Dutch and American flying boats had lost track of the Japanese convoy that was last seen approaching Dili while Australian crewed amphibians had tracked the Japanese carriers as they withdraw to the north and east of Surabaya. The last report had the Japanese carriers 250 miles northwest of Kupang steaming east. The sighting was at 2200 the previous night.
Two hundred miles behind the Pacific Fleet, the small convoy carrying another infantry regiment and forty five days of combat supplies for the polyglot American division already on the island edged southwards to be under Darwin’s air cover throughout the day. Destroyers stayed close to the troopers while infantrymen in life jackets and their green steel helmets were told to mount machine guns for close-in anti-aircraft protection. Sailors worked their way around the landlubbers who crowded the rails.
Even as the carriers moved north, the first contact of the day was called in. A dozen transports were entering the mined harbor at Dili. One was down at the bow after striking a mine but most seemed to have entered safely. The A-20 bomber’s transmission stopped for a few minutes as the radio operator had to man the defensive machine guns to drive away some Japanese army fighters. Four minutes later, a repeat of the previous message with a firmer count of the escorts and a warning that there was heavy flak was received in Kupang and sent to every naval unit within radio range.
By mid morning, ten Marine Wildcats, led by 1st Lieutenant Jaroschek as the squadron’s surviving senior officers either had a case of the runs or were recovering from wounds, climbed up to 13,000 feet over the port. Two dozen Army A-24 dive bombers soon joined them. They had flown together a few times in support of the Marines and National Guardsmen but this would be their first strike on a hard target. Off to the south, another half dozen A-20s were forming up to strike at Dili on their own, counting on their speed for their protection.
The Pacific Fleet stopped their advance to the island as the Sunday punch was being launched from two carriers. They had to race to the southeast, giving up so much sea room that they had taken overnight to get a strong enough wind over the decks. Forty five minutes later, Yorktown and Constellation had thirty Wildcats escorting sixty three dive bombers and twenty seven torpedo bombers to strike at Dili. Hornet and Enterprise were being held in reserve in case the Japanese carriers could be found.
Two carriers turned into the wind. Fighters were soon airborne and then a few minutes later, half a dozen bombers were aloft for anti-submarine patrols. Scouting duty had been handed off to landbased bombers. Dutch and American flying boats had lost track of the Japanese convoy that was last seen approaching Dili while Australian crewed amphibians had tracked the Japanese carriers as they withdraw to the north and east of Surabaya. The last report had the Japanese carriers 250 miles northwest of Kupang steaming east. The sighting was at 2200 the previous night.
Two hundred miles behind the Pacific Fleet, the small convoy carrying another infantry regiment and forty five days of combat supplies for the polyglot American division already on the island edged southwards to be under Darwin’s air cover throughout the day. Destroyers stayed close to the troopers while infantrymen in life jackets and their green steel helmets were told to mount machine guns for close-in anti-aircraft protection. Sailors worked their way around the landlubbers who crowded the rails.
Even as the carriers moved north, the first contact of the day was called in. A dozen transports were entering the mined harbor at Dili. One was down at the bow after striking a mine but most seemed to have entered safely. The A-20 bomber’s transmission stopped for a few minutes as the radio operator had to man the defensive machine guns to drive away some Japanese army fighters. Four minutes later, a repeat of the previous message with a firmer count of the escorts and a warning that there was heavy flak was received in Kupang and sent to every naval unit within radio range.
By mid morning, ten Marine Wildcats, led by 1st Lieutenant Jaroschek as the squadron’s surviving senior officers either had a case of the runs or were recovering from wounds, climbed up to 13,000 feet over the port. Two dozen Army A-24 dive bombers soon joined them. They had flown together a few times in support of the Marines and National Guardsmen but this would be their first strike on a hard target. Off to the south, another half dozen A-20s were forming up to strike at Dili on their own, counting on their speed for their protection.
The Pacific Fleet stopped their advance to the island as the Sunday punch was being launched from two carriers. They had to race to the southeast, giving up so much sea room that they had taken overnight to get a strong enough wind over the decks. Forty five minutes later, Yorktown and Constellation had thirty Wildcats escorting sixty three dive bombers and twenty seven torpedo bombers to strike at Dili. Hornet and Enterprise were being held in reserve in case the Japanese carriers could be found.
Story 1393
Diego Suarez, Madagascar June 16, 1942
The crew aboard the French armed merchant cruiser Bougainville began their regular day. A few dozen men were chipping paint under the eye of a trio of chiefs while more were working on the balky engines. The light cruiser Primauguet had visited the harbor earlier in the week. The converted merchant ship would never be as fast as a dedicated warship but she could barely keep up to the cruiser’s economical cruising speed. The captain was embarrassed and if this was a normal time, he would have been relieved but there were few men qualified to be captain of a French warship as there was no stream of replacements coming from Toulon to the Indian Ocean colonies. Instead, the small force based at Reunion and the Madagascar patrol squadron were effectively on their own, their admirals tipping their cap in the general direction of Vichy policy but they were on their own.
As night fell on the harbor, a fuel barge came aside and hoses were unreeled before connecting to the ship’s bunkers. Enough fuel was soon being pumped aboard for a thirty day neutrality patrol up and down the channel separating the island from the African continent. Over the next three days, the crew was filled out with sailors previously assigned to the shore establishment even as food and spare parts were brought aboard.
The crew aboard the French armed merchant cruiser Bougainville began their regular day. A few dozen men were chipping paint under the eye of a trio of chiefs while more were working on the balky engines. The light cruiser Primauguet had visited the harbor earlier in the week. The converted merchant ship would never be as fast as a dedicated warship but she could barely keep up to the cruiser’s economical cruising speed. The captain was embarrassed and if this was a normal time, he would have been relieved but there were few men qualified to be captain of a French warship as there was no stream of replacements coming from Toulon to the Indian Ocean colonies. Instead, the small force based at Reunion and the Madagascar patrol squadron were effectively on their own, their admirals tipping their cap in the general direction of Vichy policy but they were on their own.
As night fell on the harbor, a fuel barge came aside and hoses were unreeled before connecting to the ship’s bunkers. Enough fuel was soon being pumped aboard for a thirty day neutrality patrol up and down the channel separating the island from the African continent. Over the next three days, the crew was filled out with sailors previously assigned to the shore establishment even as food and spare parts were brought aboard.
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Driftless
Donor
This could play out any number of ways..... Especially if the Japanese fleet isn't as far off as first thought.
Going through the motions.... Check _/
Bit quieter than IOTL. Of course, the IJN has other priorities, and has suffered greater losses.
Churchill may (or may not) think the risk small enough not to commit forces here.
Driftless
Donor
No need for an Operation Ironclad in this universe? At least for the present. Historically, that was an overly expensive use of naval resources for the British.
If the ships on the "neutrality patrol" broadcast sightings on the clear, this can only assist the UK. As long it is obvious that the French in Madagascar are not aiding Vichy (and indirectly the Germans), and ITTL the potential for the Japanese to insert a presence there is not happening, hopefully everyone will leave well enough alone. A British invasion of Madagascar gains them nothing, and only pisses the French off more as more French sailors/soldiers would inevitably be killed - on top of what has occurred already. Why waste the resources...
Poor sods. Even if no one's shooting at you that's no country for a white man. As for fighting in it, it's sheer bloody murder for tough experienced soldiers with the best training in the world. They're barely trained, very poorly equipped and have zero experience. Yet they held, they fought the Japanese Army to a standstill and handed them their first defeat since they went south. The dispised Choco's expected to melt away like a chocolate teapot held throughout fighting the like of which wasn't even dreamed of in the worst nightmares on the Russian Front. Fighting literally tooth and nail at times they held their ground never giving an inch. Not enough can be said about their heroism, and certainly not enough has been.
Story 1393
Over Dili, East Timor 0743 June 16, 1942
"Break left, break left"
The Wildcat purred as the engine strained at maximum military power and the aircraft broke to the left milliseconds before a stream of machine gun bullets would have slammed into the cockpit. Josh grunted as the G-forces pulled at him and he snapped back as the Japanese Oscar overshot him and four heavy machine gun sent a stream of slugs in the general direction of the interceptor. The last four slugs from the port wing slammed into the enemy's tail, slowing him slightly but not enough for the ace to claim another kill, but enough to buy another second or two of uninterrupted life.
He snapped his head around to regain his awareness. His wingman was still tight with him and the rest of the squadron was fighting in pairs. Off in the distance he could see a single parachute descending into the hailstorm of flak over the port. Somewhere in that direction Army medium bombers were dropping their loads. Another half a second and he checked his gauges, the engine was fine and then his eyes scanned the sky in front of him. Another pair of Wildcats were in trouble as four Oscars were chivvying them away from the mutual support of the squadron. He nosed over and dove, the range closing fast as an Oscar filled his sight picture. As soon as he was spotted he knew that the Japanese pilot would have to break right or eat a pound of lead. He pushed his nose over ever so slightly to buy a better lead on the anticipated reaction and then the Japanese pilots broke exactly as he expected. His finger was already on the trigger and just enough pressure was applied to make his guns sing. A three second burst was one second too much as the Japanese fighter caught on fire as tracer rounds went through the half empty main fuel tank.
The two rescued Marine Wildcats pulled behind Josh's wingman and they broke from the fight as a four ships section to climb for altitude before looking for other compatriots to assist.
"Devil elements, check in" Josh as the mission lead called out on the radio. Within seconds, three of the other four element leaders had called in and reported that they and their wing man were still in the fight.
"Devil 6 to Devil Lead, Devil 7 shot down, no chute, repeat no chute Devil 7"
"Roger Devil 6"
The nine surviving Marine fighters had by now assembled. As they were getting ready to head east into the next group of Japanese fighters, Devil 8 called on the radio:
"Devils, look south, many bogeys, repeat many bogeys".
A quick glance south showed a massive raid, at least eighty aircraft were sighted. A few seconds later, the stubby designs from the Ironworks were obvious as Navy fighters began to jump the second group of Japanese interceptors from superior altitude and with superior numbers. The Marines held back as their radio crackled with a report from the Army dive bombers that they were four minutes from the habor. Their mission was to cover the Army bombers and not rack up their personal score so they waited.
Twelve minutes later, the Army dive bombers had dropped on the harbor. Three aircraft were missing as the anti-aircraft guns aboard the convoy had claimed Charon's toll but at the cost of two ships settling on the bottom of the small harbor. The Marine Wildcats made a single pass on four Japanese Zeros that were low and slow on the deck and egressing away from the Navy's fighters. Two crashed in the forest having never seen the Marines. Moments later, Yorktown's fighters waggled their wings at the Marines as they left for Kupang and the carrier jocks began to systemically demolish the ships in the burning harbor.
"Break left, break left"
The Wildcat purred as the engine strained at maximum military power and the aircraft broke to the left milliseconds before a stream of machine gun bullets would have slammed into the cockpit. Josh grunted as the G-forces pulled at him and he snapped back as the Japanese Oscar overshot him and four heavy machine gun sent a stream of slugs in the general direction of the interceptor. The last four slugs from the port wing slammed into the enemy's tail, slowing him slightly but not enough for the ace to claim another kill, but enough to buy another second or two of uninterrupted life.
He snapped his head around to regain his awareness. His wingman was still tight with him and the rest of the squadron was fighting in pairs. Off in the distance he could see a single parachute descending into the hailstorm of flak over the port. Somewhere in that direction Army medium bombers were dropping their loads. Another half a second and he checked his gauges, the engine was fine and then his eyes scanned the sky in front of him. Another pair of Wildcats were in trouble as four Oscars were chivvying them away from the mutual support of the squadron. He nosed over and dove, the range closing fast as an Oscar filled his sight picture. As soon as he was spotted he knew that the Japanese pilot would have to break right or eat a pound of lead. He pushed his nose over ever so slightly to buy a better lead on the anticipated reaction and then the Japanese pilots broke exactly as he expected. His finger was already on the trigger and just enough pressure was applied to make his guns sing. A three second burst was one second too much as the Japanese fighter caught on fire as tracer rounds went through the half empty main fuel tank.
The two rescued Marine Wildcats pulled behind Josh's wingman and they broke from the fight as a four ships section to climb for altitude before looking for other compatriots to assist.
"Devil elements, check in" Josh as the mission lead called out on the radio. Within seconds, three of the other four element leaders had called in and reported that they and their wing man were still in the fight.
"Devil 6 to Devil Lead, Devil 7 shot down, no chute, repeat no chute Devil 7"
"Roger Devil 6"
The nine surviving Marine fighters had by now assembled. As they were getting ready to head east into the next group of Japanese fighters, Devil 8 called on the radio:
"Devils, look south, many bogeys, repeat many bogeys".
A quick glance south showed a massive raid, at least eighty aircraft were sighted. A few seconds later, the stubby designs from the Ironworks were obvious as Navy fighters began to jump the second group of Japanese interceptors from superior altitude and with superior numbers. The Marines held back as their radio crackled with a report from the Army dive bombers that they were four minutes from the habor. Their mission was to cover the Army bombers and not rack up their personal score so they waited.
Twelve minutes later, the Army dive bombers had dropped on the harbor. Three aircraft were missing as the anti-aircraft guns aboard the convoy had claimed Charon's toll but at the cost of two ships settling on the bottom of the small harbor. The Marine Wildcats made a single pass on four Japanese Zeros that were low and slow on the deck and egressing away from the Navy's fighters. Two crashed in the forest having never seen the Marines. Moments later, Yorktown's fighters waggled their wings at the Marines as they left for Kupang and the carrier jocks began to systemically demolish the ships in the burning harbor.
You know you are in a bad way when the enemy is less danger to you than the environment you are fighting in. IMHO only the arctic, and the glaciers at >15,000' between India and Pakistan are as hostile to the soldier. Even when not in contact with the enemy you are fighting to survive 24/7.
Driftless
Donor
Double benefit... RN ships not needed for threats in the Western Indian Ocean can be more useful elsewhere.
Easy to say in hindsight but in late April and early May 1942 the Japanese looked invincible, in no small part because a few months earlier many in the US and UK had a decidedly opposite view of them.
Driftless
Donor
To be sure, that's with the benefit of hindsight. But think of the level of sorely needed naval war power the British felt they needed to commit to Ironclad. 2 CV's, 2 BB's, 6 Cruisers, 30+ Destroyers and smaller ships. I'd bet part of the calculus was: go big, hit hard, move on. As you noted, the Allies put themselves in the hole historically by underestimating the Japanese and not being prepared.
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