Hey fester, really enjoying this timeline, keep it up. I have a "simple" question, what's the attitude of Thailand right now, with the Japanese advance stalling out and maybe even being pushed back across their border? I was curious, so I did a little reading, and that little reading was enough to make me realize that the politics of Thailand in this period are a tarpit. The current leadership OTL briefly resisted the intial Japanese invasion, but then threw in with Japan in the hope of regaining various territories in Malaya, Indochina and Burma. This was controversial even at the time. As the war went, there was a US sponsored Free Thailand movement, and the Japanese themselves did their usual outstanding work in "winning hearts and minds." By 1944 people were openly speculating about Thailand switching sides and called them the "Italy of Asia." TTL Japan's fortunes have not risen highly, and Thai popular and elite opinion have to think that they have all too quickly backed the wrong horse. Messy times ahead in Bangkok for sure.
My other little question; when does Japan run out of gas, literally? OTL Japan started with a stockpile of ~42 million barrels, which worked out to about 1 years consumption. Historically Japan conquered oil fields producing about 65 million barrels in the Southern Area (DEI plus British Borneo). Right now TTL the allies are sitting on a 30 million barrel a year field at Palembang, Sumatra, plus a few others, adding up to maybe half of that 65 million. Japan has maybe ~32-33 million barrels a year of potential production under control at this moment. But potential is not actual output, and even with less successful sabotage than OTL, it will still take time to get all those fields back in production. So Japan is already in the hole, and is getting sucked into a struggle for Timor, which even if they win, will probably compare with the OTL Guadalcanal campaign in terms of fuel spent, not to speak of the unit losses. Unless they can dramatically reverse the current momentum, will they even be able to fight in 1943? Or will Japan be full of soldiers full of fighting spirit, who, lacking the fuel to take them anywhere, will spend 1943 grubbing up Pine tree roots for their oil?
