Keynes' Cruisers Volume 2
- Thread starter fester
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Yep, which would put it up among the PI in priorities in this timeline.
So having read that Saipan only supported 1 airfield for B29s and Guam and Tinian 2 fields each. It would seem easier and less costly to bypass Saipan after bombarding it to uselessness and then keep it down using 8" artillery from Tinian and occasional bombardments by escorting cruisers as they drop off convoys.
This victory is as significant and almost as strategically important as the Allied naval victory at the Battle of Makassar. The destruction of nearly the entire Japanese army in S.E. Asia. The casualties for the IJA will be much worse than what they suffered at OTL Imphal and Kohima. Plus the loss of all military equipment heavier than what can be carried by a starving infantryman. Some IJA troops may infiltrate/break out with what they can carry on their backs but most will not.
So what do the Allies, in particular the British and Commonwealth forces, do with the door to French Indochina kicked wide open in front of them? I would guess the French may have some suggestions.
That's another good reason to invade the Ryukyus. Okinawa is large enough to support many airfields.
Another good reason is in OTL and maybe in this TL too B-29s aren't operational until mid-1944. So what to do with all those B-24s in 1943?
Driftless
Donor
Another thing that pops into mind: even though the Bengal Famine will be reduced as a by-product of the events of this TL, sufficient food will still be problematic for millions in the region. Soon, the Commonwealth will be adding 140,000+/- Japanese mouths to the ration list. Who would be making those top level rationing decisions? Does that fall on Wavell?
Driftless, do you really think there would be 140,000 Japanese surrenders?
God, the Japanese Soldiers being... Who they were, is it a viable strategy to just... Sit there and let them starve? Well, maybe thirst will kill some as well.
Driftless
Donor
No real clue - I was just using the maximum possible level. There are some tough calculations that the region's top commanders would make that would impact that final number. How hard do they press the pockets? What are the trade offs between keeping a large containment force for an indeterminate time to let the Japanese wither away, or reducing those pockets soon, so the Commonwealth forces can be redeployed elsewhere, or some of both choices? Depending on the size of the pockets, there are probably significant civilian populations who are caught between the proverbial rock-and-a-hard-spot: die by starvation or warfare?...
I'd just invest in some loud speakers, a couple japanese speakers, and blast the pockets 24/7 with propaganda, bonus points if you get any actual defectees and can put them on.
formion
Banned
Well the 140,000 men have been surrounded. They are not POWs yet. If anything, I would expect rather few to surrender and many many more to die in banzai futile attacks. The eventual POWs can be shipped to East Africa, South Africa and Australia. The convoys returing from Singapore may carry rubber and tin, but generally return with rather less cargo than the inbound journey.
It is worth mentioning that the Kra Isthmus Offensive lasted almost 3 months. If 140,000 have been reduced in pockets and given the ferocity and bravery of the Japanese, it is plausible that tens of thousands more have been losses so far. So, perhaps the total loss in Kra Isthmus in the end may be close to ~200,000 men. Another division or two was lost in Burma and during the fighting during Q1 1942 several divisions were destroyed or gutted. When the last garrisons in Siam are reduced after the Thai armistice, we can make better calculations. It won't be ASB though that the whole "Malaya/Burma Offensive" to have cost almost half a million losses since December 1941. Staggering losses from the crème de la crème units of the IJA.
That's huge.
Has B-29 development been accelerated in this timeline? In OTL wasn't engine development an issue?
There are a lot of decadent adults following this story (and another writing it).
The only Japanese surrenders of that sort of numbers were after the overall surrender and the Emperors broadcast. If they are truly surrounded, and exfiltrating is very limited, they would get it together for massive banzai charges, suicides of those too ill/wounded for charges. I would be surprised if there were hundreds of prisoners at the most.
the main issue in the pacific is the lack of carrier cover for the assault forces. remember you can fly planes into the southern phillipines to cover a convoy to break the Luzon army out. but you do not have enough carrier docks right now to cover the assault force and run counterair ops by themselves right now.
The civilian population caught in the Japanese pockets aren't Allied civilians with very rare exceptions ( sex slaves taken North from Malaya during the initial winter 42 offensive.
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Failure to accept surrender always reduces this total. IJA actions aren’t too different to historical to change this relationship.
Story 1865
Cambridge, England January 13, 1943
Eighty men marched down the streets and away from the university. They saluted the colors and their superiors. Rifles were tight on their shoulder and eyes were held to the front. As they passed outside the town and turned towards a small field, they saw a table for tea had been set up. Their commander and his superior both spoke for a few minutes. This Home Guard company was being demobilized. Certificates of thanks and appreciation were handed out almost as readily as exemptions from further national service. The men were then released for tea tonight and then they would be released back into the labs and workshops that were needed to produce the weapons of 1944 and 1945.
Eighty men marched down the streets and away from the university. They saluted the colors and their superiors. Rifles were tight on their shoulder and eyes were held to the front. As they passed outside the town and turned towards a small field, they saw a table for tea had been set up. Their commander and his superior both spoke for a few minutes. This Home Guard company was being demobilized. Certificates of thanks and appreciation were handed out almost as readily as exemptions from further national service. The men were then released for tea tonight and then they would be released back into the labs and workshops that were needed to produce the weapons of 1944 and 1945.
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