Keynes' Cruisers Volume 2

[vl100butch]

been thinking what the Victory at Sea episode would look and sound like....anyway for those familiar with the series, I think it's be a combination between episodes 4 (Midway), 5 (Mediterranean Mosaic), 5 (Guadalcanal), and 9 (Sea and Sand) (North Africa)...the ending would be one of these Allied endings saluting the three Royal Navies that took part and the USN...can't you hear Lloyd Graves talking about the gallant stand of the 4 navies that brought the IJN to a screaming halt...

then to my mind, the really fun episode...the relief of Bataan, use the triumphal music at the end of episode 9 as the carrier air wings fly over Fort Drum and the battleships steam into Manila Bay....

 

[sloreck]

The lack of destroyers and light cruisers right now will be a problem for the Japanese. After the next air attack by the CV groups, the black cats still have some torps to drop, Yamamoto is going to be facing a dilemma where some of his cripples can make a decent speed to get out of the danger zone from air attack. Some other cripples are going to be much slower. Now he will have decide which cripples/groups of cripples get to have the benefit of his very limited ASW screening vessels. Cripples without destroyers are going to be easy meat for any submarine, even US subs with crappy torpedoes - basically they can achieve good firing positions and keep firing and some of the torpedoes will work. With at least some of their AA armament destroyed, cripples will have a hard time not falling to land based aircraft, even with crews less than adept at anti-maritime strikes.

Once the immediate crisis of the next few days is over, the already poor Japanese convoy/ASW situation will get worse. The relatively few decent destroyers will be used for screening of major IJN units or very high value convoys. Sure eventually they'll get subchasers, but they have limited range and limited capabilities. Needless to say, all of this is going to snowball big time especially once the USN fixes their torpedo problem. Even before the Allies started gardening around Japan and fighter bombers and medium bombers go hunting from bases on Okinawa or off carriers, the Japanese Merchant Marine will pretty much cease to exist.

 

[StevoJH]

Is Admiral Yamamoto even alive? There is a very real possibility that he could have been killed or injured during the battle.

 

[Winestu]

Given that this was/still is a MAJOR combined navies operation, there will be after action reports and appraisals done by all the services involved. Once these reports are circulated, there will be questions as to why British torpedoes vastly outperformed American torpedoes. And when Adm. King sees this he’s going to go ballistic! I wouldn’t want to be on the receiving end of his wrath. He makes L. Rom Ermy look like a kindergarten cry baby.

 

[TheWildWestPyro]

King's mercurial nature and Anglophobia were well known and undoubtedly a serious flaw of his.

 

[Indiana Beach Crow]

King's mercurial moods and Anglophobia were well known and undoubtedly a serious flaw of his.

"He is the most even-tempered person in the United States Navy. He is always in a rage."

 

[TheWildWestPyro]

"He is the most even-tempered person in the United States Navy. He is always in a rage."

Ah, right. Bad juxtaposition on my part there.

 

[RyderWest]

Once the battle is over... going to create a wikibox for this battle. This is Midway levels of disaster for the Japanese, probably worse since they nearly lost their entire battleline as well as the Kido Butai.

 

[StevoJH]

This is well beyond Midway.

I’d say this is Midway and Leyte Gulf combined. It would add up to be the most destructive naval battle in history in terms of lives lost probably.

 

[Winestu]

King's mercurial nature and Anglophobia were well known and undoubtedly a serious flaw of his.

I’m not so sure he was an anglophobe (as opposed to just not liking them). I think his major problem with the Brits is that he may have believed that they were trying to back out of the Germany First agreement and were more interested in post war politics than they were in finishing the war. Which meant invading northwestern Europe and he felt they were trying to back out of that.

Though imagine being there when he loses it and you’re NOT going to on the receiving end of that rage?

 

[formion]

The lack of destroyers and light cruisers right now will be a problem for the Japanese

Indeed. The problem may get bigger due to a couple of factors :

a) The destroyers have been in high speed operations for a while now and the fleet had his base in Truk, considerably farther away from the battlefield than Singapore/Surabaya. If the allied destroyers had to replenish their fuel stocks, the Japanese have to as well. Would Yamamoto slow even more his battleships to allow this? Can some IJN destroyers find "safety" in a Borneo port like Balikpapan? If so, with regular B-24 visits their presence will be noticed.

b) The remaining destroyers have faced during the night double their number of enemy destroyers and cruisers. I would expect that they are pretty shot-up and they can get only a certain degree of punishment before they become liabilities in a retreat under enemy threat. Some will be leaking, some will have boiler damage.

Therefore, I would expect the light forces of IJN to face even more casualties by the end of the day.

 

[RyderWest]

I’d say this is Midway and Leyte Gulf combined. It would add up to be the most destructive naval battle in history in terms of lives lost probably.

And ITTL, the biggest naval battle of the entire war up until this point.

USN & RN: 9 fleet carriers, 3 light carriers, 6 battleships, 12 heavy cruisers, 22 light cruisers, 73 destroyers, 10 escort ships, 55 other ships (LSTs oilers, transports) = 190 ships

IJN: 6 fleet carriers, 1 light carrier, 7 battleships, 4 battle cruisers, 10 heavy cruisers, 2 light cruisers, 37 destroyers = 67 ships

So around 257 ships were involved with this battle.. not to mention about 674 aircraft on the allied side and 369 aircraft on the Japanese side.

I will guess Leyte Gulf level of casualties for the Japanese side...

 

[merlin]

been thinking what the Victory at Sea episode would look and sound like....anyway for those familiar with the series, I think it's be a combination between episodes 4 (Midway), 5 (Mediterranean Mosaic), 5 (Guadalcanal), and 9 (Sea and Sand) (North Africa)...the ending would be one of these Allied endings saluting the three Royal Navies that took part and the USN...can't you hear Lloyd Graves talking about the gallant stand of the 4 navies that brought the IJN to a screaming halt...

then to my mind, the really fun episode...the relief of Bataan, use the triumphal music at the end of episode 9 as the carrier air wings fly over Fort Drum and the battleships steam into Manila Bay....

I remember seeing that on (B & W) TV - decades ago, surprised with all the reruns of World at War, it never gets reshown!

 

[TheWildWestPyro]

I think we can all estimate that the level of face lost for the IJN is going to be catastrophic for them. Worst-case scenario for the Navy, the IJA will end up retaking their seats in the cabinet and ousting most of the naval officers that replaced them back in 1939.

However, it's doubtful if the Army will still push for a Northern Expansion into the USSR, unless their anti-communist fervor is kicking in again.

And if they grab all the resources needed for an assault on China - finally getting the steel for better armor, for example - with the Burma Road secure and the Chinese starting to have proper fire support, it's not likely to be the decisive victory they hope for.

 

[RyderWest]

I think we can all estimate that the level of face lost for the IJN is going to be catastrophic for them.

I just imagine the chaos back in Tokyo...

"YAMAMOTO!!! GIVE ME BACK MY SHIPS!!!"

 

[pjmidd]

And if they grab all the resources needed for an assault on China - finally getting the steel for better armor, for example - with the Burma Road secure and the Chinese starting to have proper fire support, it's not likely to be the decisive victory they hope for.

Given the situation in Thailand ( and Burma) eating far greater resources, coupled with the lack of extra resources gained compared to OTL, they will be lucky to match OTL numbers even with the IJN getting far less. They are in a desperate spiral already and with the US production about to start appearing in numbers, its going to get a lot worse.

 

[AlanJWhite]

I will guess Leyte Gulf level of casualties for the Japanese side...

AIUI iOTL the Japanese had ~ 12,500 casualties at Leyte when 3 battleships, 1 Fleet & 3 Light carriers, 10 cruisers and 11 destroyers were sunk.

At the latest report from Fester, iTTL the IJN has lost 4BB, 4 largish CVs, 9 cruisers , 13 DD and 3 BC.

Since iOTL the carriers were stripped of planes and presumably handlers there will be higher losses there iTTL
especially on Akagi that detonated and Junyo that was torpedoed at night.

Equally aircrew losses will be radically higher and skewed towards permanent loss.

More, the BC each have a crew of ~ 1,500 and at least one was also a catastrophic loss.

I would think nearer 20,000 casualties with a higher proportion dead or permanently disabled than Leyte.

 

[RyderWest]

AIUI iOTL the Japanese had ~ 12,500 casualties at Leyte when 3 battleships, 1 Fleet & 3 Light carriers, 10 cruisers and 11 destroyers were sunk.

At the latest report from Fester, iTTL the IJN has lost 4BB, 4 largish CVs, 9 cruisers , 13 DD and 3 BC.

Since iOTL the carriers were stripped of planes and presumably handlers there will be higher losses there iTTL
especially on Akagi that detonated and Junyo that was torpedoed at night.

Equally aircrew losses will be radically higher and skewed towards permanent loss.

More, the BC each have a crew of ~ 1,500 and at least one was also a catastrophic loss.

I would think nearer 20,000 casualties with a higher proportion dead or permanently disabled than Leyte.

Don't forget the massive crew casualties from the damaged ships, since IIRC the superstructures of the main ships that survived are probably wrecked from all that allied gunfire... Yamato ITTL did have everything above the armor basically popped holes and destroyed....

 

[Alanith]

I think we can all estimate that the level of face lost for the IJN is going to be catastrophic for them. Worst-case scenario for the Navy, the IJA will end up retaking their seats in the cabinet and ousting most of the naval officers that replaced them back in 1939.

However, it's doubtful if the Army will still push for a Northern Expansion into the USSR, unless their anti-communist fervor is kicking in again.

And if they grab all the resources needed for an assault on China - finally getting the steel for better armor, for example - with the Burma Road secure and the Chinese starting to have proper fire support, it's not likely to be the decisive victory they hope for.

Given the... inadequate performance of the IJA to date, it's also possible that the IJN gets kicked out and NEITHER armed branch manages to take said cabinet power. I mean, lets look at the IJA's war record thus far:

1. Got the Empire trapped in a quagmire in China
2. Failed to reduce the Bataan garrison when it had the chance, a chance that has in all likelihood, disappeared forever by this point.
3. Got kicked out of the vital oil producing islands in the Dutch colonies
4. In the progress of getting its ass kicked out of Thailand after losing its foothold in Malaya.

Not exactly a lot of glorious, undisputed victories of late that IJA GHQ can point to... Admittedly they're doing a bit better then the IJN right now, but not by that much.

 

[formion]

The IJA has been attrited ITTL considerably. We have to make a comparison with the OTL. In OTL there were the following fronts during 1942 and 1943:

a) Burma Front: Basically a reinforced size field army that didn't lose great formations during 1942-1943.
b) Solomon Islands/ New Guinea campaign: Never committed more than a corps in each campaign (Guadalcanal, Bougainville etc). Lost a few tens of thousands of men.

IITL just in 1942, the IJA had a compeltely different experience:

a) Lost corps size formations in Java and Timor.
b) During the first 3 quarters of 1942 in Malaya and Burma, losing several division-sized formations and experiencing heavy attrition to the remaining force.
c) The last offensive by the Commonwealth has pretty much destroyed 6 divisions in Thailand and 2 in Burma.
d) Even in the PI, attrition was significant more than OTL.

At least 300.000 men killed or permanently disabled (at the very best senario) - the core of the experienced A level divisions. While manpower is not an issue (yet),the replacement of those artillery pieces, trucks, tanks and the rest of the equipment is an issue for the Japanese industry who has to support also the China quagmire. The fortification of Borneo, Celebes and the Bandas is also a challenge and the IJA had to invest at least a dozen of relatively well equipped divisions.