Not to mention that ITTL about 140,000 men were captured when Tunisia fell. OTL it was about 230-250,000 and resulting supplies/guns/tanks/vehicles. 1943-44 Germany ITTL has a MUCH larger pool to draw men from to keep fighting.
Keynes' Cruisers Volume 2
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Not to mention that ITTL about 140,000 men were captured when Tunisia fell. OTL it was about 230-250,000 and resulting supplies/guns/tanks/vehicles. 1943-44 Germany ITTL has a MUCH larger pool to draw men from to keep fighting.
The Germans got to within ~13 miles of Moscow in this timeline. The big difference is that when the Soviet counter-attack came, there were far fewer "no retreat" orders given or followed plus some more theatre level reserves were available (90th Light Division at Rhez instead of OTL Libya)
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/keynes-cruisers.388788/page-241#post-15989200
Ah...
So yeah, presumably most of the German forces are concertraited on the Eastern Front?
That's how I see it. A post-war Europe where the Iron Curtain is much further east than OTL. All because of some extra cruisers.
Given that the Europe First policybis still in effect, the British are in a much stronger position ITTL, and the Germans have been doing better in Russia ITTL, after this victory, it's quite possible that while Nimitz can and will get more and more forces to fight with, a number of units, especially Army and Army Air Force units that historically ended up in the Pacific might instead be redeployed to European duty.
Even after this victory, the Allies still lost a lot of ships and aircraft, and thousands of families are going to have terrible letters in the mail, or service personnel making unfortunate visits. A lot of the new ships coming online are going to need time to work up and train as well.
If nothing else, by Q3 of 1943, I'd expect Nimitz to clear the Mandates and move to take the Marianas. The former might even be doable by May or June.
Another thing to consider, Japan at this point basically has a military government. You have the Emperor and some civilians in support roles or powerless administrative or figurehead posts, but the senior officers of the Army and Navy are running things for the most part. Whereas Nimitz, Somerville, Eisenhower, and other US or British commanders still report to and serve at the pleasure of their civilian masters, in the case of many senior 3 and 4 star Japanese officers, with the exception of the Emperor himself, there is nobody over them. The reason I bring this up, aside from the number of ships lost, quite a few of these ships likely went down taking one or more Admirals with them. Nagumo was mentioned as being fatally wounded. He also had a 2 star Rear Admiral serving as his Chief of Staff. Did Yamaguchi survive the loss of Hiryu, or did he go down with the ship. Yamamoto may or may not survive, and I'd assume he would have either a Rear Admiral or maybe even a Vice Admiral serving as his Chief of Staff aboard Yamato. Given the number of other battleships, battlecruisers, and cruisers that have been sunk, plus the number of damaged ships, it's probably safe to say at least two or three additional 2 or 3 star admirals have also likely been killed. This is going to create a major shakeup at the leadership level as well. After Midway OTL, with the exception of RADM Yamaguchi, all the senior officers that took part in the Midway operation survived and went on with the war. Here, numerous senior leaders are not going to be present in the aftermath, and numerous flag level commands don't exist anymore. The Japanese aren't complete idiots, many are actually western educated, and they just got their asses kicked hard. I don't see them surrendering anytime soon, but I could see their navy at least becoming somewhat willing to play things a bit more on the conservative side.
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And the Allies will be the one marching into Berlin instead of the soviets...
Hecatee
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I suspect the disparition of so many admirals and the shame brought by the defeat might also lead to an all out push by the army to seize all governing positions with few naval officers able to confront them. Naval policies frlm now on might be to simply supply the army and only do what supports the army policy, which might be "finish china asap with a max effort everywhere using every plane and amphibious capacity and men availlable", with ship building limited to lighter units for escort duty and all the rest of the metal being used for land and air weapons, with the heavy ships not repaired or even dismantled...
Regarding the above post:
With the Burma Road remaining open, and Nationalist China seeming to have its supply and retraining situation in hand (at least for now), it'll be a lot more difficult to Ichigo them. From what we've seen, the US is successfully advising them on fire support, there's a good supply of 75mm pack howitzers coming through the road, and the National Revolutionary Army is trying out guerrilla tactics. For the last part, it looks to be going OK militarily, although I'd think that the communists are light years ahead of the KMT in guerrilla warfare (this is coming from someone who firmly believes that while the KMT's army had serious weaknesses, their successes and the stuff they did well shouldn't be dismissed or overlooked.)
Perhaps in future, the serious Chinese army reform might actually occur, along with the 36-division plan working out properly.
Whether or not Stilwell has been sent to China is unclear, but hopefully he hasn't, and has gone to North Africa like originally intended.
With the Burma Road remaining open, and Nationalist China seeming to have its supply and retraining situation in hand (at least for now), it'll be a lot more difficult to Ichigo them. From what we've seen, the US is successfully advising them on fire support, there's a good supply of 75mm pack howitzers coming through the road, and the National Revolutionary Army is trying out guerrilla tactics. For the last part, it looks to be going OK militarily, although I'd think that the communists are light years ahead of the KMT in guerrilla warfare (this is coming from someone who firmly believes that while the KMT's army had serious weaknesses, their successes and the stuff they did well shouldn't be dismissed or overlooked.)
Perhaps in future, the serious Chinese army reform might actually occur, along with the 36-division plan working out properly.
Whether or not Stilwell has been sent to China is unclear, but hopefully he hasn't, and has gone to North Africa like originally intended.
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Yeah, with more supplies to the KMT, maybe the KMT manages to retain control of some of mainland China IOTL postwar (if not most of it outside of Manchuria)...
Hell, the postwar world ITTL is going to be interesting. With the Japanese not having occupied nearly as much of Southeast Asia as they did IOTL, decolonization in the Southeast Asia colonial possessions of the Dutch, British, and French is not going to resemble IOTL. IMO, it'll still likely happen ITTL; there's too many factors in favor of it...
Hell, the postwar world ITTL is going to be interesting. With the Japanese not having occupied nearly as much of Southeast Asia as they did IOTL, decolonization in the Southeast Asia colonial possessions of the Dutch, British, and French is not going to resemble IOTL. IMO, it'll still likely happen ITTL; there's too many factors in favor of it...
The Imperial Japanese Army should have lost a lot of prestige in TTL. They have not had one complete victory as compared to OTL. Only partial ones that have been reversed or are currently under threat. And the war against China continues with no victory in sight. Both the IJN and IJA senior commanders are discredited. Could this allow a larger influence to the negotiation faction?
An ambitious thought would be the KMT being actually able to secure parts of mainland China prior to 1945, instead of losing more territory. But we'll see how that all plays out. If they've got their leadership, training and supply all reformed into at least a reasonable level, they might be able to pull it off.
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Just chiming in to say that I love you using "Ichigo" as a verb. It totally works too!
Would it be possible for the KMT army to advance through Kwangsi and isolate Indochina? Also, there might be some long-range bombing missions against occupied Luzon, further disrupting the Japanese position there and helping to some small extend the besieged Bataan garrison.
Donald Reaver
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We are going to have to see what the final results of the battle are. The relative strength of the I.J.N. of what is left, compared to the Allies fleet and how quickly can the Allied fleet can repair damaged ships and add new ones. The I.J.N. sounds like getting close to a spent force, with at best one last desperate gamble it can make. Finishing the island campaign they are on now needs to happen first. Bataan may be too far at this point, another island perhaps Palawan needs to come first to ensure land based airpower.
Would berlin fall to the US/UK forces easier, or at least faster than it did to the Soviets? They would have less to fear from surrendering to us..but of course they would still have as much to fear from surrendering from Hitler if they were not beyond his reach yet. Did Eisenhower have plans for assaulting Berlin..putting it under siege, direct assault, etc?
Define occupied.
There are two divisions in Central Luzon. The Japanese feel comfortable walking around downtown manilla, Davao and legapsi in pairs.
Many farmers have not seen a Japanese patrol in months.
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