Keynes' Cruisers Volume 2
- Thread starter fester
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AIUI the idea of was certainly considered in the very early 30's when Germany began building the Panzershieffe
but was shelved for more than 5 years until rumours came that the Japanese were building "super cruisers" too.
The USN initiated a review in 1938 but no funding was made till September 1940 as part of the Two Ocean Navy Act.
Construction did not start on any of the planned 6 class until Dec 1941
Ironically the Japanese had NOT made any plans for super cruiser (being happy with their new CAs and older BCs) at least until they heard Alaskas were ordered.
In mid 41, the IJN looked at the concept but then sensibly decided against building any response.
ALSO
iOTL converting the two partially built Alaskas to carriers were considered at roughly this date
They were not converted iOTL (more Essexes and CVEs being preferred)
iTTL I suspect it's more likely the 2 Alaskas will be scrapped in favor of completing the next two Iowas
(to replace Sodak if for no other reason)
More probable option is to mine and bomb to create a blockade, then see if starving them out works. If they are still holding out when the bomb is ready then use it as per OTL. No one is going to do Downfall if they have any sane other option, no President is going to agree to the expected US casualty count it involves unless they have no other option left.
Great spreadsheet, thanks fester.
You've done the (near) impossible - you've done a VERY plausible wank. And I'm only calling it a wank since I can't think of a better word. A combo of an earlier American (and resulting Allied) rearmament and everything that entails plus six months more of training/combat compared to OTL Midway means that The Bloodletting Of Makassar Strait is incredibly plausible, hell, incredibly LIKELY given the parameters you've set and held to.
This is the kind of AH that I love - a relatively small, almost-unnoticeable act years ago leads to a radically different world years down the line. It is a thing of beauty and you should be very proud.
You've done the (near) impossible - you've done a VERY plausible wank. And I'm only calling it a wank since I can't think of a better word. A combo of an earlier American (and resulting Allied) rearmament and everything that entails plus six months more of training/combat compared to OTL Midway means that The Bloodletting Of Makassar Strait is incredibly plausible, hell, incredibly LIKELY given the parameters you've set and held to.
This is the kind of AH that I love - a relatively small, almost-unnoticeable act years ago leads to a radically different world years down the line. It is a thing of beauty and you should be very proud.
Agreed absolutely that Shokaku will go - one way or another
and that Mutsu will be tidied up by some of Lees remaining lighter ships
and that CVL Ryujo is vulnerable to a degree that depends on his actions
and I wish all of the rest were probable or even possible, but IMHO it's not
Unfortunately there is no time for a further night strike from Force Q.
We know it's short on torpedoes and is in any case already starting an unrep for oil and AVGas.
So the fleeing IJN BBs are safe for the night
The ASV equipped Sunderlands can track and the MadCats perhaps trim off a cripple
but even there they are better tracking and reporting.
The main mission is still to ensure the success of the landings long enough for a self sufficient base to be established.
That means the supply vessels that dispersed have to return and complete unloading taking at least a few days
They will require surface screen, CAP and ASW plus CAS and if possible NGFS.
As you have said, the obvious candidate for this job is a replenished Force Q
and I suggest also Lee's 2 remaining combat capable BBs.
However your task list completely omits how Lee's cripples can be saved.
That will take up all his remaining light resources.
These ships will also need CAP and ASW protection on their way south - either from Force Q or TF-16
That too will be a job for Force Q - the element you say is not mission capable will have a lots to do
because TF-16 is needed to attempt the actual cleanup
Unfortunately while TF-16 is a powerful Sunday punch it is not enough to take down even one of the big 3 escapees for certain.
Originally the 3 Yorktowns had 106 DB and 42TB. Allowing for losses in their two strikes plus gains from orphans from TF-17 they will be slightly down. Say 90-95DB and 30-35TB. BTW In the circumstances the TB deficit is significant. Force Q deployed nearly twice as many in the night attacks.
The modern japanese BBs are tough.
At Sibuyan Sea it took 200 Strikes in at least 4 waves to take down Mushashi delivering over 19 torpedo hits and 17 bombs
Similarly in Ten Go Yamato had 400 strikes also in 4+ waves for similar numbers of hits (plus strafing and rocketing to suppress her AAA).
and yes I know the Japanese AAA was much thicker iOTL 44
and that iTTL the ships have already taken other damage
but realistically this is still short of a Force Z scenario - where 88 aircraft hunted down 2 Capital Ships with very weak AAA by TTL standards.
The random factor is the subs - but the USN boats are too unreliable and the RN already committed.
Maybe a damage on the big 3 or a kill of the CVL is the best that should be expected
Aside: edited slightly later for coherence, hopefully without changing basic argument
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I had brought that up earlier with the comment that, "..by winning earlier we may lose more later"..or something to that extent. Someone else mentioned that B-29's wouldn't be available for long distance bombing, either. We may find out if FDR would be willing to drop the bomb on the Germans if the timeline gets too out of sync.
Even IOTL, trying to starve them out didn't work. The radicals were in full control of the house at that point, and presumably also its getting there ITTL at this point as well....
Derek Pullem
Donor
@AlanJWhite Timing for a second strike is arguable. The first night strike landed at around 2000 hrs and the battleships have been steaming South for most of that time. I wouldn't rule out another strike of similar size to the one that hit the Yamato originally.
The landings need to be protected from what? Land based air would seem to be the biggest threat and the airfields are being worked over by the B-24s of USAAF. All Force Q needs to do is provide a deck for a few days to maintain a CAP over the landings. The ASW needs are provided by their integral escorts (virtually untouched). Same for the battleline casualties - they still have 7 undamaged cruisers and almost twenty destroyers as escorts. The battleline can leave the area - it's not needed anymore.
TF-16 is the main offensive tool left (along with subs and allied land based air)
The effectiveness of the TF-16 strikes (and I would suggest they are going to plan for at least two in daylight) will depend on the targeting. If they go for the Yamato class then they will damage them but probably not sink them. If they go for Hiei, Nagato or Hyuga then those ships are toast.
Subs (on both sides) are unlikely to gather anything other than the cripples - there are more cripples on the IJN side so losses will be lop sided.
If the IJN comes out of this with more than one functioning CV and two functioning BB they will be extremely lucky. On the other hand the Allies look like they have at least 6 CV and 2-3 BB available and more available soon.
The bottom line is that the IJN had to win 3:1 or better - they didin't even break even. Allies have a free rein in the Pacific for six months and by the time the IJN is ready to come out to play they will be outnumbered 4:1 or more.
The landings need to be protected from what? Land based air would seem to be the biggest threat and the airfields are being worked over by the B-24s of USAAF. All Force Q needs to do is provide a deck for a few days to maintain a CAP over the landings. The ASW needs are provided by their integral escorts (virtually untouched). Same for the battleline casualties - they still have 7 undamaged cruisers and almost twenty destroyers as escorts. The battleline can leave the area - it's not needed anymore.
TF-16 is the main offensive tool left (along with subs and allied land based air)
The effectiveness of the TF-16 strikes (and I would suggest they are going to plan for at least two in daylight) will depend on the targeting. If they go for the Yamato class then they will damage them but probably not sink them. If they go for Hiei, Nagato or Hyuga then those ships are toast.
Subs (on both sides) are unlikely to gather anything other than the cripples - there are more cripples on the IJN side so losses will be lop sided.
If the IJN comes out of this with more than one functioning CV and two functioning BB they will be extremely lucky. On the other hand the Allies look like they have at least 6 CV and 2-3 BB available and more available soon.
The bottom line is that the IJN had to win 3:1 or better - they didin't even break even. Allies have a free rein in the Pacific for six months and by the time the IJN is ready to come out to play they will be outnumbered 4:1 or more.
Story 1830
Southern Celebes Sea 0300 January 3, 1943
USS Grouper descended. Six torpedoes were swimming towards the damaged heavy cruiser limping across the Celebes Sea.
Ninety one seconds after the first torpedo left its tube, the Mk-14 should have arrived and hit its target. It missed. The torpedo had wandered to the right. Four more shots were clean misses, some due to wander and some due to spread. The only hit failed to detonate. It did wake up many exhausted men and led to a broken wrist as a man fell out of his hammock.
Kinugasa continued north even as a destroyer ran down the bubble tracks and forced Grouper under for the next four hours.
USS Grouper descended. Six torpedoes were swimming towards the damaged heavy cruiser limping across the Celebes Sea.
Ninety one seconds after the first torpedo left its tube, the Mk-14 should have arrived and hit its target. It missed. The torpedo had wandered to the right. Four more shots were clean misses, some due to wander and some due to spread. The only hit failed to detonate. It did wake up many exhausted men and led to a broken wrist as a man fell out of his hammock.
Kinugasa continued north even as a destroyer ran down the bubble tracks and forced Grouper under for the next four hours.
Story 1831
Central Makassar Strait, 0303 January 3, 1943
USS Massachusetts ceased fire. Half a minute later King George V also went silent.
The Japanese battleship Hyuga had been given a chance to surrender or scuttle. She was heading north at seven knots and listed nine degrees to starboard. Her heavy guns could only fire in a limited range toroid with horrendous direction. The two escorting destroyers had been sunk by a combination of American destroyer gun fire and the secondary batteries of the two battleships. Their torpedo attacks were pressed hard but ineffective as the launches were expected and they were on fire and crippled when the torpedoes entered the water 9,000 yards from the battleships.
14 inch shells splashed wildly around the two battleships. They maneuvered so that the broadsides were to the stern of the crippled ship. A single working Japanese turret could track the modern battleships and spit out defiance as the execution began. On the minute, Massachusetts fired. On the half minute, King George V fired. Soon the one working aft turret aboard Hyuga had been ruined. The range closed to 4,000 yards. No armor scheme in the world would keep out armor piercing shells fired at a range familiar to Admiral Dewey.
Aboard the Massachusetts, the Marine contingent commander had managed to get himself to the bridge. He asked for a minute of the Captain’s and admiral’s time. It was granted. Could he prepare his men for a boarding mission?
The admiral denied him permission. The Japanese battleship was on fire and could turn turtle at any moment. And he knew that if his ship was about to be boarded, he would detonate the magazines. It was an audacious ask that would never be held against the man in his fitness reports, but it was a suicide mission. Instead, two destroyers slowly moved into position and each launched torpedoes from five hundred yards away. Half a dozen explosions opened up the battered ship to the sea even more. Four minutes later, her bow was 100 feet under the water and her screws were fifty feet above.
USS Massachusetts ceased fire. Half a minute later King George V also went silent.
The Japanese battleship Hyuga had been given a chance to surrender or scuttle. She was heading north at seven knots and listed nine degrees to starboard. Her heavy guns could only fire in a limited range toroid with horrendous direction. The two escorting destroyers had been sunk by a combination of American destroyer gun fire and the secondary batteries of the two battleships. Their torpedo attacks were pressed hard but ineffective as the launches were expected and they were on fire and crippled when the torpedoes entered the water 9,000 yards from the battleships.
14 inch shells splashed wildly around the two battleships. They maneuvered so that the broadsides were to the stern of the crippled ship. A single working Japanese turret could track the modern battleships and spit out defiance as the execution began. On the minute, Massachusetts fired. On the half minute, King George V fired. Soon the one working aft turret aboard Hyuga had been ruined. The range closed to 4,000 yards. No armor scheme in the world would keep out armor piercing shells fired at a range familiar to Admiral Dewey.
Aboard the Massachusetts, the Marine contingent commander had managed to get himself to the bridge. He asked for a minute of the Captain’s and admiral’s time. It was granted. Could he prepare his men for a boarding mission?
The admiral denied him permission. The Japanese battleship was on fire and could turn turtle at any moment. And he knew that if his ship was about to be boarded, he would detonate the magazines. It was an audacious ask that would never be held against the man in his fitness reports, but it was a suicide mission. Instead, two destroyers slowly moved into position and each launched torpedoes from five hundred yards away. Half a dozen explosions opened up the battered ship to the sea even more. Four minutes later, her bow was 100 feet under the water and her screws were fifty feet above.
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formion
Banned
Regarding the ability of RN carriers to throw another good sized punch, I would like to mention that the british carriers have only torpedo bombers. How many attacks did they have already ? 2 or 3 ?
Now an Illustrius class carrier would have the following bomb capacity as per the 1936 guidelines:
- 45x torpedo
- 250x 500lb SAP bombs
- 400 250lb SAP bombs
- 250 250lb “B” bombs
- 100x 100lb AS charge
- 600x 20lb
Could they increase the torpedo capacity if they operate only torpedo bombers and not dive bombers? I don't know. In general it seems plausible to have a smaller and final RN strike.
Edit to add source: http://www.armouredcarriers.com/hms-illustrious-armoured-aircraft-carrier-design/
Now an Illustrius class carrier would have the following bomb capacity as per the 1936 guidelines:
- 45x torpedo
- 250x 500lb SAP bombs
- 400 250lb SAP bombs
- 250 250lb “B” bombs
- 100x 100lb AS charge
- 600x 20lb
Could they increase the torpedo capacity if they operate only torpedo bombers and not dive bombers? I don't know. In general it seems plausible to have a smaller and final RN strike.
Edit to add source: http://www.armouredcarriers.com/hms-illustrious-armoured-aircraft-carrier-design/
Story 1832
Parepare, 0400 January 3, 1943
An artillery battalion started to fire. The high explosive shells dug into the earth and exploded a few hundredths of a second after the fuses were activated. Behind the barrage, four tanks and two companies of Marines began to advance. Machine guns were sending three and four round bursts at the enemy strong point. Any time a defender exposed himself by firing back, one of the tanks would fire its seventy five millimeter hull mounted gun. Company controlled mortars were laying a string of chaos along the Japanese trench line while the battalion mortar teams were placing supersonic steel fragments behind the position to prevent any reinforcements or counter-attacks.
As the Marines got closer, men with bulky cylinders on their backs were called up. Orange tongues of death darted into holes and crannies. Off on the right flank, a Japanese anti-tank gun fired quickly. Three shells slammed into the closest Grant. Most of the crew scrambled out of the burning vehicle before the ammunition cooked off. The infantry platoon supporting the destroyed tank began an immediate advance against that deadly position.
An hour later, a steady stream of ambulances brought the wounded back to the aid stations and the field hospitals. Slowly the few Japanese strong points and hold-outs were being cleared.
An artillery battalion started to fire. The high explosive shells dug into the earth and exploded a few hundredths of a second after the fuses were activated. Behind the barrage, four tanks and two companies of Marines began to advance. Machine guns were sending three and four round bursts at the enemy strong point. Any time a defender exposed himself by firing back, one of the tanks would fire its seventy five millimeter hull mounted gun. Company controlled mortars were laying a string of chaos along the Japanese trench line while the battalion mortar teams were placing supersonic steel fragments behind the position to prevent any reinforcements or counter-attacks.
As the Marines got closer, men with bulky cylinders on their backs were called up. Orange tongues of death darted into holes and crannies. Off on the right flank, a Japanese anti-tank gun fired quickly. Three shells slammed into the closest Grant. Most of the crew scrambled out of the burning vehicle before the ammunition cooked off. The infantry platoon supporting the destroyed tank began an immediate advance against that deadly position.
An hour later, a steady stream of ambulances brought the wounded back to the aid stations and the field hospitals. Slowly the few Japanese strong points and hold-outs were being cleared.
In my mind and research, the RN carriers had the magazine capacity for about 2 full strength ASuW strikes. Given losses, there are enough torpedoes for a single roughly half strength strike left. The question will be range.
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The Americans need the Philippines in this timeline because they still have an army fighting there, under siege, in Bataan. Every Congressman whose constituents have family in that army is going to be under pressure from those constituents to make sure that army gets relieved.
And the propaganda value (at least for the United States domestic audience) of relieving Bataan will be enormous.
Edit:
Regardless of any military value, it seems to me a successful liberation/relief of the Philippines has enormous political value for the USA.
A boarding action would have been cool as hell but the admiral made the right call here.
The four Japanese heavies heading north can all sustain at least 17 knots.
My understanding was that BC Hiei went in a different direction.
Has he rejoined the BBs?
Or are you counting CA Nachi as the fourth?
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