Keynes' Cruisers Volume 2

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fester is giving us the perfect foil to Halsey's OTL boner at Leyte Gulf. There will be no "Where is TF-34, the world wonders" ITTL....
 
Given that his primary stated objective is to protect the landing he should hit battleships. He can hit the carriers tomorrow at 1st light. Actually he launch before dawn.
Regardless, there IS going to be a surface engagement during the night (unless the IJN turns away for some reason) and any damage to the enemy battleline now increases the odds in the Allies favor.
 

Errolwi

Monthly Donor
Aboard HMS Ark Royal, 1605 January 2, 1943

"Tea, please"

"Aye sir".

He had a few minutes to think. The torpedo bombers were not scheduled to take off for another fifteen minutes. They were currently planning to go after the enemy carrier force just after dusk. But the message from Quincy had been thrust into his hands a moment ago.

Tea would give him enough time to weigh the dice.

Change targets without a chance to properly re-brief? I can see why Quincy is planning on holding down the transmit key, at least they shouldn't be hammer-and-anviled by the RN.
 
I do think that ppl. are overrating the IJN BB’s night fighting abilities. I’m not talking about the cruisers here, just the BB’s. I seem to recall that the Kongo’s practiced with the cruiser force, but the rest of BB’s didn’t. So maybe the Kongo’s (what’s left of them) can do some good night fighting, but I doubt the rest of the IJN battleline will be any better or worse than anyone else; except the RN and whatever cross training they gave the USN.

And the Americans have radar. Do they have effective fire control radar by this time?

Also, given the fuel situation, I don’t think the IJN has been doing gunnery exercises as near as the should be doing them or as often as the Allies seem to.

I also remember reading how bad IJN fire control was at Leyte Gulf. How bad was the IJN BB’s fire control at this point IOTL?
 
Do you really think that they should make plans based on the assumption that the enemy are going to be poorly trained?

Besides, the battleships a most likely crewed by pre-war trainee crews. While they might be lacking recent refresher training they should still be decent.
 
Fester, the Japanese navy does not know about there being 12 to 15 fleet and light carriers building for the American navy that will be combat ready by spring of 1944 plus the fact that the American navy losses any battleships they will simply decided on completing the 2 iowa class battleships whose building was suspended due to lack of battleship usage in the war.
 
The Japanese had really bad intelligence about the US, even the IJN, which had less excuse than the Army. In a lot of ways, this wasn't a shock, since the Japanese big failing was accurately guessing how good American workers could be, nor how many the US actually had (The Rosie the Riveter was a complete shock to them, one they never really internalized). You see this with their base assumption that Lexy II, for example was just a succession of ships, named again and again.
 
Given that his primary stated objective is to protect the landing he should hit battleships. He can hit the carriers tomorrow at 1st light. Actually he launch before dawn.
Regardless, there IS going to be a surface engagement during the night (unless the IJN turns away for some reason) and any damage to the enemy battleline now increases the odds in the Allies favor.
This is the point - if the RN hit the battleships then the carriers will turn away. If the RN hit the carriers first the battleships can't outrun the follow on strikes the next day but the landing area and ships stationed there may take a pounding.

If the RN know accurately the situation of the carriers then they may be tempted to finish them off. If they are unsure about the number of carriers / fighters remaining then the attack on the battleships looks the lower risk option.
 
The fact of the matter, in this case: "Which is the threat he must honor?"

Answer: Battleships heading for the landing zones.

Sun Tzu made this one very clear. If the US and Dutch troops and support ships are torn apart under a British Admiral, when he could have saved them...
 
The fact of the matter, in this case: "Which is the threat he must honor?"

Answer: Battleships heading for the landing zones.

Sun Tzu made this one very clear. If the US and Dutch troops and support ships are torn apart under a British Admiral, when he could have saved them...
Yeah the Japanese carriers are battered and mostly combat ineffective for the near future, those Battleships represent the greatest threat to the landihs and must be destroyed. By the time the Japanese carrier force is combat ready again the Essex and Independence classes will be rolling off the production line.
 
No British Admiral would allow any thought beyond protecting the landing beaches to occur . No matter the cost the IJN battle line will not be allowed to close the beaches .
 
No British Admiral would allow any thought beyond protecting the landing beaches to occur . No matter the cost the IJN battle line will not be allowed to close the beaches .

You mean no admiral with half a brain no matter their country of origin.

...Assuming they have all the information required to come to that conclusion...
 
No British Admiral would allow any thought beyond protecting the landing beaches to occur . No matter the cost the IJN battle line will not be allowed to close the beaches .

However Somerville has already messed up protecting the beaches in at least 3 ways so far:

  1. The original positioning of the whole CV force was too far south. It should have been sufficient far north of the landings to put the landing site (and the CVEs) "behind the right shoulder" of the 3 CV task forces. In essence the CV Force Cap would have made a partial Barcap for the CVEs even without assigning specific fighter cover.

    This would be a greater risk from Japanese subs and land air but if protecting the landing is the priority ...

  2. His arrangement of the 3 CV Task Forces was fundamentally flawed. He should have had the RN further North by Night , the USN further North by Day (swapping positions in the twilight)

    That would optimize both his defensive and offensive capabilities.

    In particular, if Force Q had been properly position he could have made that early night strike by the RN against the IJN forward force he decided against. AS a bonus this would have avoided the subsequent over commitment of the USN strike in early morning

  3. By creating the separate BB line so early he reduced the defensive effectiveness of their AA covering the Cvs.

    (The line could be formed easily at need for ASuW)
 
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The whole battle seems to have been based on the principle of drawing the IJN into the Makassar Straight using the bait of the landings. It's going to work at a cost. The 3 CVE and the Dutch cruiser are already part of the "acceptable cost" calculation. This calculation would have to have been done by all concerned - not just Somerville.

To be honest if the IJN is gutted as would seem likely then no one is going to blame the victors.

The hindsight calculation ignores the what if of whether the Japanese find the fleet carriers before they commit to attacking the escorts - by hanging back this risk was minimised and it gives the Allies a chance at a full strike on the carriers against minimal opposition.

Another comment would be that the carrier attacks have been unusually effective on both sides for this time of the war.
 
the Japanese carrier force lost 2 carriers sunk 3 more if they make home may be out of the war until 1944 and one that may be back online by fall of 1943, aka there is no Japanese fleet carrier support for 6 months to a year. the Saratoga if she makes it is out of the war until summer for battle damage but I going to assume that she is going to get a complete refit and overhaul instead meaning late or early release from the dockyard. the Lexington may not sink but see may taken enough underwater damage that getting her out of the combat zone may not be possable.
 
Story 1789
Southern Makassar Strait, 1608 January 2, 1943


The last Avenger had landed aboard USS Saratoga. The deck was crowded, the hangers even more so. A dozen aircraft were busily being stripped for anything useful before they were heaved over the side. Destroyers were spread out over a thirty mile trail picking up aircrews from the planes that had to ditch due to battle damage. The carrier was packed. Most of Lexington’s airgroup had landed on the big ship. Some of the Wildcats had diverted to Enterprise and Constellation, while somehow a trio of Dauntlesses landed on Furious despite the pilots never having trained on the bat signals that the British used.

The CAG looked down and counted the aircraft that would be available tomorrow as reinforcements for TF-16. He looked at the sheet of paper that kept track of the known dead, missing and wounded. He would soon leave PriFly and head down to the ready rooms to hear the debriefs. After that, he would be in sick bay to talk with the wounded men. He would authorize medicinal brandy for any man who had been on the strike. And then after night fell, he would start writing letters for the men whom he would never see again.

Losses were “light” for the damage that was being claimed but the light losses included men whom he had gone to Pensacola and flew with for the first time. They included men who had 2,000 hours in the air. They included men who had been aboard Saratoga since before the war started. They included men who had shipped aboard fresh from advanced training and whom he barely knew as all of the twenty two year olds looked and sounded the same to him. They included men who had dreams and hopes and families who would be broken when they received the telegram from Western Union. Light losses, yes, but painful losses to the man who would be writing letters for the next week.
 
Story 1790
Aboard HMS Ark Royal, 1608 January 2, 1943

He sipped his tea.

Chaos was erupting on the flight deck below him. Pilots that were ready to take-off looked confused. Deck crew were putting chocks underneath the wheels of the first wave. Angry shouts were coming out of the cockpits and being returned from the flight decks. Pilots were storming towards the island as they did not know why the strike was being held back.

He sipped his tea as Ark Royal began a turn from the southeast where the wind was over her deck to dead north. Flight operations were over as the heavily laden torpedo bombers could not take off on this course. The three other carriers also were turning to follow the flagship. Engines slowed slightly from thirty knots to only an efficient twenty five knots as the Admiral knew that his destroyer skippers were losing their mind as they thought about their fuel reserves.

Several decks below him, he could hear flight leaders and squadron commanders bellow in frustration. And then he heard stunned silence when they were informed that they were to hunt bigger game tonight. He would need to go down to the squadron rooms in a moment where he could lean on his years of credibility to explain the new information. His men, his pilots, his crews would have the chance to Trafalgar an enemy if they would only be patient.
 
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