Keynes' Cruisers Volume 2

[Curtain Jerker]

Looks like I missed a lot over the holiday.

If Makassar Strait was fought ten times the Japanese might be more successful (not "winning," merely "more successful in losing") six or seven of those times. But there was only one roll of the dice and the USA rolled pretty high. So it goes in battles both historical and fictional.

This timeline is a bit of a Allied-wank (that's the premise after all) and some of the best writing on this site. Don't let the former detract at all from the latter.

 

[Wet Coast]

This timeline is a bit of a Allied-wank (that's the premise after all) and some of the best writing on this site. Don't let the former detract at all from the latter.

I think it's very tough to write a Pacific war (including the Indian Ocean) timeline without it becoming an Allied wank. The Japanese in OTL were so unbelievably lucky that it would be difficult to replicate let alone do better with a start date in 1939/40 or later. So if the breaks even out instead of constantly going Japans way, they are screwed much more that OTL.

 

[Curtain Jerker]

I think it's very tough to write a Pacific war (including the Indian Ocean) timeline without it becoming an Allied wank. The Japanese in OTL were so unbelievably lucky that it would be difficult to replicate let alone do better with a start date in 1939/40 or later. So if the breaks even out instead of constantly going Japans way, they are screwed much more that OTL.

If someone wrote a timeline on this site that replicated exactly what happened in OTL early in the war half the site would be shouting "ASB!!!!" from the rooftops.

 

[NHBL]

If someone wrote a timeline on this site that replicated exactly what happened in OTL early in the war half the site would be shouting "ASB!!!!" from the rooftops.

Very true. Wouldn't be ASB, but would be low probability

 

[Draconis]

In Keynes' Cruisers we have read about the differences that have accumulated from the initial divergence caused by FDRs' decision to increase U.S. military and naval spending by a relatively modest amount beginning in 1937.

Now the TL has reached August 1943 and there are manifest results of this POD. The biggest difference between OTL and festers' TL is in the Pacific War. Not that there haven't been considerable changes in the other theatres but it's in Japans' failure to achieve their primary objectives that we see the greatest difference.

The situation the Japanese are facing by August 1943 in TTL is far more stark and worrisome to the Japanese. Both the IJA and IJN have little else but defeats to show for their efforts. Even what successes they did achieve have been either rolled back or nullified by Allied victories and advances. This is very different from OTL where the Japanese had massive victories and successes at the beginning of the Pacific War. The OTL successes vindicated the claims and beliefs of the militarists that controlled the government of Japan.

But how different is the political situation in Japan becoming in TTL? The militarists surely must be greatly discredited by their record of failures and defeats and will be losing their power and influence. As Japans' situation grows more dire, especially after the Allied bombing campaign against the Home Island begins, how much more discredited and even incompetent will the militarists be seen?

What I'm suggesting here is that in TTL there might be the possibility of a power struggle taking place in late 1943 or early 1944 resulting in a change of government, or rather who controls the government of Japan. This leads to the new leaders of Japan suing for peace. Asking for more realistic terms that the Allies can accept. Or accepting the terms that the Allies will insist on. Japan could be permitted to only keep Formosa and Korea but Manchuria and all the rest of occupied China must be relinquished. As well as all the other occupied lands. I think the Allies in TTL might be satisfied with those conditions but would the post militarist government of Japan agree? Or have the power and ability to agree and enforce the peace treaty? Would this lead to a Japanese civil war?

 

[Driftless]

What I'm suggesting here is that in TTL there might be the possibility of a power struggle taking place in late 1943 or early 1944 resulting in a change of government, or rather who controls the government of Japan. This leads to the new leaders of Japan suing for peace. Asking for more realistic terms that the Allies can accept. Or accepting the terms that the Allies will insist on. Japan could be permitted to only keep Formosa and Korea but Manchuria and all the rest of occupied China must be relinquished. As well as all the other occupied lands. I think the Allies in TTL might be satisfied with those conditions but would the post militarist government of Japan agree? Or have the power and ability to agree and enforce the peace treaty? Would this lead to a Japanese civil war?

How might the Emperor weather this version of the end-game? I have no clue, but I'm guessing the end rolls up sooner and more abruptly than in our history. Does that make a difference?

 

[RyderWest]

How are the titular Keynes Cruisers doing?

 

[Draconis]

How might the Emperor weather this version of the end-game? I have no clue, but I'm guessing the end rolls up sooner and more abruptly than in our history. Does that make a difference?

So much would depend on the people who take over the government from the militarists and what they can accept and what they can enforce. But I would guess the Allies would allow the Japanese to keep the Emperor. A negotiated peace would mean Japan isn't occupied. I don't think the Allies could force the removal of the Emperor unless they invaded and occupied Japan. Which in TTL might not be necessary providing the Japanese would agree to terms that sufficiently defang them.

 

[formion]

I think the sticky point would be Manchuria and China. Even without the successes of OTL, any official who proposes to accept forfeiting Manchuria would not survive for long.

 

[Draconis]

I think the sticky point would be Manchuria and China. Even without the successes of OTL, any official who proposes to accept forfeiting Manchuria would not survive for long.

I agree. Just how much more of a battering would the Japanese have to endure in TTL before they would face reality, abandon their absurd ambitions and do what is necessary to suppress the fantasists.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

asking for more realistic terms that the Allies can accept.

Haha. No.

Or accepting the terms that the Allies will insist on. Japan could be permitted to only keep Formosa and Korea but Manchuria and all the rest of occupied China must be relinquished. As well as all the other occupied lands. I think the Allies in TTL might be satisfied with those conditions

After Pearl, I find it hard to believe that the US would be that lenient.
At a wild guess, they'd demand more. Maybe giving Korea independence. Maybe being able to summon wartime leaders for warcrimes.

I could imagine them keeping Taiwan.

but would the post militarist government of Japan agree? Or have the power and ability to agree and enforce the peace treaty? Would this lead to a Japanese civil war?

Without ships shelling the Home Islands, it's really hard to see any Japanese government agreeing, and enforcing, such terms.

I imagine there'd likely be a coup and several other unpleasantnesses before the harsh reality of the situation allows them to accept such terms.

Eventually something might get worked out, but it would be a tough slog.

 

[Lascaris]

I agree. Just how much more of a battering would the Japanese have to endure in TTL before they would face reality, abandon their absurd ambitions and do what is necessary to suppress the fantasists.

We are in July 1943. The Casablanca conference in OTL was in January 1943. Hasn't Roosevelt TTL declared a policy of unconditional surrender? If not how so?

 

[RyderWest]

I personally believe is that the Allies basically have to be on Japans doorstep before thrre is a sliver of any reason in Tokyo.

Aka ATL Operation Downfall...

 

[formion]

By the way, @fester what is the status of the Mark 14s at this point ?

 

[fester]

By the way, @fester what is the status of the Mark 14s at this point ?

About the same as OTL...getting better, not great

 

[Draconis]

We are in July 1943. The Casablanca conference in OTL was in January 1943. Hasn't Roosevelt TTL declared a policy of unconditional surrender? If not how so?

To be honest I don't remember how the Casablanca Conference or TTLs' version of it proceeded. I may go back into the archived postings to see.

 

[fester]

To be honest I don't remember how the Casablanca Conference or TTLs' version of it proceeded. I may go back into the archived postings to see.

Never really mentioned

 

[fester]

Palmyra Atoll, July 28,1943

Battery Stillwater would stand watch over the airbase by itself. The two eight inch cannons from the lost carrier Saratoga had an almost complete overwatch of the island. There was a small blind spot that had been covered by her sister battery, Rexford and a pair of lighter coastal defense batteries. One of the light batteries remained. Half of the defenders were boarding a small tramp steamer with a destination of Pearl Harbor. There was no longer a need to worry about the strategic rear of the Pacific Fleet. A few submarines had been spotted east of the Gilberts but the Japanese strategic striking fists had been shattered in the Celebes. Hundreds of trained Marines who were primarily working on their tans were needed elsewhere. Most of the men would either round out the 3rd and 4th Marine Divisions' attached artillery regiments or become part of the replacement pools. A few would head back to California and then off to camps and schools.

 

[fester]

Bataan, July 29, 1943

"DOG COMPANY, ECHO COMPANY MAN YOUR BOATS"

The loud speaker called out commands. Heavily laden men ready for anything began to amble down the cargo nets that the crew from the anchored assault transport had placed on the hull an hour ago. Sergeant Donohue gripped the thick ropes and found his footing after he dropped the last eighteen inches into the assault craft. Soon the rest of the boat's cargo was aboard. Some of the eighteen and nineteen year old privates were boasting about their bravery. Others were muttering the rosary, more tried to hold their footing and their breakfast in the mild swells. The veterans of Timor waited. There were no shells splashing in the water, there were no bombers dropping death from above, there were no snipers taking potshots at them. Nothing beyond fate was trying to kill them, so they could wait.

The boats began to assemble in straight lines. Beacons ashore were being lit up and the barges began to move forward. Patrol craft guided and guarded the edges of the lines. Fighters from the small airfield hacked out of the jungle and rebuilt over the past two months began to rise and protect the landing waves as the sun edged over the eastern horizon. Patrick was ready even as three battleships and five cruisers, somewhere to the distant northwest, began a steady bombardment on Japanese positions guarding the entry to the division's final objective.

The boat shuddered. It stopped. The ramp went down and the first part of DOG Company landed.

Up and down the beach, dozens among dozens of assault craft were disgorging their cargoes. Two were stuck on reefs outside of the marked lanes. One would soon work its way wiggling forward and back to break free and then land. The other would be scuttled after the infantrymen were ferried ashore in rubber rafts. By the time the sun started to beat down on the beaches, two full infantry regiments were ashore and the first of the artillery park was being loaded into another wave. By nightfall, guides had brought the fresh troops north to the front lines. They would not jump off just yet as a tank battalion was still being inspected by the mechanics and the artillery dumps were being filled with shells.

Bataan had been relieved.

 

[Spencersj345.346]

Welp the siege of Bataan will definitely go down as a legendary part of the history of the various units involved in it. If nothing else I expect a latter Essex to be named after it in addition to the member of the modern Wasp class amphibious assault ship already so named.