Keynes' Cruisers Volume 2

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Remember that the PoD for this TL is significantly increased naval spending over OTL, as Keynesian stimulus to pull the US out of the Great Depression. So, it's entirely in line with the story arc.

On the contrary, IMHO Rochambeau and her sisters arriving early is entirely against the story arc.

For them to be early in TTL , means they were either started earlier than OTL or built faster than OTL.

IMHO the chance of being starting earlier is almost negligible. The USN wanted full-size CVs both iOTL and iTTL. Fester's post from TTL 1938 confirms this.

In OTL, smaller CVs were only investigated again in 1941 because (most of) the Essex class CV would not arrive until 1944.
In TTL the Essex class is further forward so it is plausible that may not even be an investigation in 41.

In any case, the USN rejected the option as late as October 41, only changing their mind OTL after Pearl Harbour.

in TTL, depending on how far forward the "Essex Production line" is, the USN might plausibly not even go ahead with the CVL concept even in Jan/Feb 42.

However assuming they do, will the first CVLs arrive earlier iTTL?

In OTL, the CVLs (as they later became named) were a crash program.
The design was developed based on converting one hull already in progress on the slips... as a kind of prototype. And then building the next two from scratch starting slightly later but with the advantage of the lessons learned.

Even so the first hull was not commissioned till late January '43 and still needed several weeks to work up. Belleau Wood as the prototype was actually slower, presumably because some work had to be done over. She did not reach the fleet till July 1943 and that with an American crew

In TTL, how can that be bettered, even with more investment in cruiser hulls before '41?
even with some extra preliminary thoughts as early as 1938? (Stated to be a only a few days)

Now if Fester has decided
  • that with more CLs built before the war, more could be spared to become CVLs based on the Cleveland Class in Feb 42
    or
  • that instead of a CL hull, a CA design was chosen, perhaps to reduce the USN's genuine and justified concerns about the size of the ship and its air group
    (After all, that is what the USN did in OTL '44 with the Saipan Class based on a Baltimore hull)
then either of those would have been "in line" with the Keynesian POD

Simply reducing the already exceptionally short time achieved in OTL to finalise an innovative design, work on a prototype, improve the methods, complete build of at least 3 instances and work-up crews (especially with a language barrier) is not plausible to me
.. at least not when the cut is by 3 months not a couple of weeks :teary:.

However, as I originally wrote ... Authors call
 
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In OTL, the CVLs (as they later became named) were a crash program.
The design was developed based on converting one hull already in progress on the slips... as a kind of prototype. And then building the next two from scratch starting later but with the advantage of the lessons learned.

Even so the first hull was not commissioned so till late January '43 and still needed several weeks to work up. (Belleau Wood as the prototype was actually slower and did not reach the fleet till July 1943)

However, as I originally wrote ... Authors call


I think I'm operating off of a different understanding of the ordering timeline in OTL for the Independence class carriers than you.

OTL ONLY

October 1941 USN rejects expedient CL conversions
October 25, 1941, FDR orders USN to reconsider

January 1942 Belleau Woods ordered from USS New Haven that had been under construction for 5-6 months.
February 1942 2 more CVL ordered (from CLs that had significant construction already started 7-9 months worth of work))
March 1942 --- 3 more CVL ordered from CLs that had slightly less construction already started

Summer 1942 --- remaining 3 CVL ordered from CLs that had not yet started from construction.

Belleau Woods was OTL commissioned March 31, 1943 and was in combat by August 1, 1943 or 4 months to shake down and transit to the front.

TTL

USN had been thinking longer and harder on expedient aircraft carriers since 1938. USN preference as always would be a full size carrier (first Yorktown and then Essex class). The two Ocean Navy Bill of summer 1940 authorizes the Essex class Pez dispenser but the first tranche of those ships were not expected until late summer 1943/early 1944 (close to OTL). The USN had been thinking about expedients. This TTL sees earlier conversion of the Sangammonn class CVEs as well.

October 1941 work is frozen on first three cruiser hulls that become Independence, Princeton, Belleau Woods/Rochambeau. Carrier design work for final approval kicks into high gear. Long lead time items (engines, turbines, reduction gear, radars, fire control etc) are still being assembled at the shipyard as they could be dual purposed for either the carrier or cruiser outcomes.

January 1942 All three cruisers are ordered as carriers and since there is less cruiser specific work to rework, and the conversion plans are further developed in TTL than OTL and the shipyards have slightly more early investment in them, the work goes faster.

Last week of December all three carriers are commissioned. I am benchmarking completion times of the three carriers of the first CVL tranche on the time it took to get Independence ready. I am making the construction period fast, perhaps too fast, but I think this is defensible to say each carrier conversion was launched late summer 1942 and commissioned in December 1942.

January 1943, the three carriers start their work up and three months later (mid-April 1943), none of them are in combat yet. One has moved to the forward fleet operating area, and the other two are going back for final post-shakedown availability.

We are probably arguing over six to eight weeks at the most. I think that the pathway I've gone down is internally coherent within this universe to steal those two months.
 
I think I'm operating off of a different understanding of the ordering timeline in OTL for the Independence class carriers than you.

AS I said, repeatedly, your call

...but as I also said in my honest opinion not plausible (i don't expect anyone else to agree)

Unfortunately, this is yet another example (admittedly only a small one)
of the greatest weakness of this otherwise excellent piece of writing

i.e. repeated changes of USN policy ... and above all mental posture..
simply not justified by the POD and its implications against OTL

ASW is the biggest area where you have given US planners an unreasonable amount of foresight
(unreasonable compared to their RL performance that is)

in OTL in Jan 42 the US was building no CVE or DE (except for those ordered by the RN).
Not a single one of either for themselves!
It had converted none of the many mothballed destroyers it was reactivating specifically for ASW.
It had not ordered land-based LRMP aircraft
(not even from an adapted bomber design let alone a special purpose model ).

and yet iTTL you have them doing all of the above

Just because it had a little extra money, targetted initially at extra Surface warfare ships

Apologies for the multiple edits: hands and eyes and brain not currently on good speaking terms
and unfortunately not due to single malt poisoning
 
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Messina, Sicily April 10, 1943


Dawn rose from the sea. Alert eyes scanned the horizon for ships and planes. None were seen. Today was just another day.


Early morning battle drill was a constant. Stay alert an hour before dawn to an hour after sunrise. If there was nothing, as there had always been nothing, the Luftwaffe tank soldiers would stand down for breakfast and then resume their normal training as the primary counter-attack force for the Sicilian armies.
Damn, fester. You are still teasing us with the start of Husky. I wonder how fast Italy is going to kick the bucket.
 
Take a look at all the moving parts that have not yet entered the Med...

PATIENCE
I know. Moving carriers for aerial support and cruisers/battleships for shore bombardement is a really big deal. With no Stalingrad and the German Army in a better shape, the Germans will be able to send reinforcements. So, the US Marines are going to have a great task ahead. How is the state of the Italian Army? They're better than OTL even with their disaster on Russia?
 
I am stealing this line

You are welcome to the line about a disconnect between bodily parts
(even the single malt poisoning if you have the good stuff to hand)

Just don't acquire the damnable syndrome that is creating it for me at irregular intervals
.. not pleasant at all
 
The Southern Spanish Coast, April 14, 1943


A battered body washed ashore. The fishermen had seen a flash of light overnight and then a fire on the water offshore. The body had a briefcase handcuffed to his left wrist. Within hours, the local police had called the regional police who had called the national police. This was not just a shipwrecked sailor or a downed aviator washing ashore.

The man who never was has arrived !
 

formion

Banned
One thing I have been pondering over in the timeline, is the torpedo scandal. We have seen USN subs operating from Singapore and Java. British and Dutch submarines operate from the very same bases and they have claimed a great deal of success. This proximity between the different submarine forces, along with the discrepancy in sinkings, how does it sit with the USN? British and Dutchmen bag tankers, tramp steamers, even capital ships. What does the USN has to show? Therefore, if there is greater scrutiny, is there a chance for more detailed and earlier investigation on the Mk XIV torpedo?


Furthermore, I sincerely recommend the "Global Logistics and Strategy" volume I & II, by Richard Leighton. If somebody wants it, pm to send it. It is more than interesting to read such a complete work on US army logistics in WW2.

One example:

From Pearl Harbor to the end of 1943, the United States Army alone shipped over 4,906,726 tons of cargo into Alaska and the Aleutian Islands. In comparison, 3,138,732 tons were delivered to Central Pacific, 2,423,512 tons to South Pacific, and 4,229,530 tons to Southwest Pacific. Even with a major building scedule in the Aleutians ITTL, more than 2 million tons of of material can be sent to other fronts. Accordingly, the building process doesn't need 400,000 men in Alaska. So, both men and material are freed. We have seen already the 7th Div to embark presumably for Palawan (or Borneo, in any case close to the PI). The 7th seems to be one of the major butterflies that the absence of an Aleutian campaign has released.

Furthermore, the books states several times the shipping and landing ship bottlenecks the US Army experienced. This issue has been presented as considerably minimized already.

Similarly, the manpower needs in the Pacific have been reduced with the Commonwealth armies in Thailand ( and not in the border of India as in OTL) and with the Dutch thriving. In OTL at this point there were at least 9 US Army divisions (not counting the growing Marines) that increased to 21 by 1945.

So, the big question for summer 1944 when the equivalent of Overlord ( and perhaps Dragoon) is launched is the following: Will the US Army be able to field one additional Army in the ETO, judging by the aforementioned new conditions? Already we have seen the WAllies having approximately one extra Commonwealth Army and one more big Army comprised of extra French, Polish, Greek etc troops. If there is a 3rd extra Army ( the US one) in summer 1944, then things can become veeeery interesting.
 
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Story 1998

Saigon, French Indochina, April 15, 1943



French prisoners hauled hoses forward. More men were grabbing axes and buckets of sand. A large fire had broken out in the residential district near the rail marshalling yards. Soon water was turning into steam, and firebreaks were being constructed. By late morning, the barracks of the occupying Japanese infantry regiment had been protected from destruction. Soon enough, another RAF raid would hit the city and the impromptu fire brigades would be back on the streets without enough equipment, training or calories to stay strong.
 
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