Keynes' Cruisers Volume 2

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Functionally neutralized about a year ahead of schedule, compared to our history?

Never really built up in TTL compared to OTL. It is, in this TTL, an outer bastion/warning post/denial of opportunity to the Allies instead of a forward major operating base and logistics hub of its own sub-theatre of operation. It is more than Wake Island was in OTL but far less than it was in OTL TTL.
 
It should be possible for the Third fleet to continue to methodically reduce any other island bastions that may threaten the route from Hawaii to the Ryukyu Islands. Allowing Okinawa to be taken possibly before the end of 1943. And facilitating other Allied operations in the Western Pacific including the liberation of Luzon.
 
It should be possible for the Third fleet to continue to methodically reduce any other island bastions that may threaten the route from Hawaii to the Ryukyu Islands. Allowing Okinawa to be taken possibly before the end of 1943. And facilitating other Allied operations in the Western Pacific including the liberation of Luzon.
Nimitz does not need to be that ambitious. He sees the construction schedule
 
The ambushed militiamen
Vichy's Milice (mainly part time, with a few regulars in barracks) was considered very dangerous by the various Resistance groups, since they had local knowledge, and often useful informants from their pre-war activities as policemen and criminals.

Film recommendation: Louis Malle's Lacombe, Lucien is a 1974 movie about a 17 year old turned down by the resistance who instead joins the Carlingue, a Vichy Gestapo that worked with the Milice. Really good.
...two dozen Nell bombers to hit Tulagi.
[Rabaul] Never really built up in TTL compared to OTL. It is, in this TTL, an outer bastion/warning post/denial of opportunity to the Allies instead of a forward major operating base and logistics hub of its own sub-theatre of operation. It is more than Wake Island was in OTL but far less than it was in OTL TTL.
Does the Japanese use of G3Ms reflect this? Relegated to a relatively unimportant sector - or perhaps G4M production has failed to keep up with losses.
 
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Vichy's Milice (mainly part time, with a few regulars in barracks) was considered very dangerous by the various Resistance groups, since they had local knowledge, and often useful informants from their pre-war activities as policemen and criminals.

Film recommendation: Louis Malle's Lacombe, Lucien is a 1974 movie about a 17 year old turned down by the resistance who instead joins the Carlingue, a Vichy Gestapo that worked with the Milice. Really good.


Does the Japanese use of G3Ms reflect this? Relegated to a relatively unimportant sector - or perhaps G4m production has failed to keep up with losses.

Re: The Milice --- in this scene, they have good local knowledge (which is why they knew where to patrol) but still rough combat skills as they just officially stood up a few weeks earlier.

Rabaul and Nells --- near the bottom of the priority barrel so second string air frames are there while Betty's are concentrated in the South China Sea and the Mariannas/Carolines barrier chain
 
Story 1922

Ploiești, Romania February 25, 1943



The fire hose went limp. Water sputtered out of the nozzle. Exhausted men began to wind the leather tube around a central wheel. The fire was out.


Engineers were already scrambling around twisted metal and broken tanks. Tape measures and calipers were being used to assess damage while other men worked to determine how to move oil from this damaged cracker unit to the other units at the Romanian-American refinery complex.


Off in the distance, the shell of a cratered Liberator still burned. Light anti-aircraft guns had claimed the kill with dozens of bullets ripping open the cockpit. No survivors were to be captured.
 
Story 1923

Palawan, February 26, 1943



His carbine was still. His head was not. Eyes scanned back and forth. Ears strained to hear anything other the the crash of waves and the song of birds. Out to sea, a red light flashed twice briefly, and then waited five seconds before flashing again for three seconds.


“Send the counter-signal” the captain whispered. A hurricane lamp sent a bright series of dashes and dots. The floating red light responded. Both sides were confident that the other was who they said they were.


An hour later, a wooden blockade runner was forty yards from the beach. Rubber rafts were unloading supplies for the guerrillas. The Filipino officer hurried to meet the tall, sunburned and skinny American naval officer. They shook hands and exchanged books. One book had notes on half a dozen beaches, the type of sand, the length of the shingle, the angle of the rise, defenses observed and the presence or absence of reefs. The other book was a series of one time pads for radio messages.


By midnight, the guerillas and the supply boat were both away from the beach.
 
Story 1924
Arlington, Virginia February 27, 1943

"Boss, come over here"

Her sweet voice broke the silence. Half a dozen young women had their faces inches from their desks. All of their eyes were narrowly focused until they heard Genevieve's voice break the silence. They clustered around her.

"Look at this... this is odd"

The eight mathematicians now began to concentrate on this oddity.
 
Arlington, Virginia February 27, 1943

"Boss, come over here"

Her sweet voice broke the silence. Half a dozen young women had their faces inches from their desks. All of their eyes were narrowly focused until they heard Genevieve's voice break the silence. They clustered around her.

"Look at this... this is odd"

The eight mathematicians now began to concentrate on this oddity.

Well this is interesting, didn't she crack Purple in 1940? I wonder what she's done now...
 
I think she started work on the Venona Project.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venona_project

Basically counter intelligence against the USSR.

Yeah I should have kept going through Wikipedia, I didn't realize they made some big breaks in Venona during WW2. But it turns out they had some big successes early on:

Results
NSA reported that (according to the serial numbers of the Venona cables) thousands of cables were sent, but only a fraction were available to the cryptanalysts. Approximately 2,200 messages were decrypted and translated; about half of the 1943 GRU-Naval Washington to Moscow messages were broken, but none for any other year, although several thousand were sent between 1941 and 1945. The decryption rate of the NKVD cables was as follows:

  • 1942 1.8%
  • 1943 15.0%
  • 1944 49.0%
  • 1945 1.5%
Out of some hundreds of thousands of intercepted encrypted texts, it is claimed under 3,000 have been partially or wholly decrypted. All the duplicate one-time pad pages were produced in 1942, and almost all of them had been used by the end of 1945, with a few being used as late as 1948. After this, Soviet message traffic reverted to being completely unreadable.

It would be nice if the Atomic spies are caught before they turn over too much to the Soviets. I wonder what the political fallout would be if it became known during the War how many spies the Soviets had in the British and American governments.
 
Story 1925

The Arabian Sea, February 28, 1943



Ancient ships trundled forward. Seventeen of the twenty one merchant ships including all four tankers had either been built or ordered during the first great war. One had even survived being torpedoed in the Mediterranean in the last few weeks of that conflict. Now they were being escorted by a Greek armored cruiser that was soon able to collect an old age pension and a C-class cruiser that had never received the anti-aircraft modernization of her sisters. Two Indian crewed sloops provided the anti-submarine escort as the convoy of slow bulk carriers and oilers moved on. Once they arrived at Bombay, the slow ships would unload while the tankers and a fewer faster ships that had independently arrived at Bombay would pick up a more modern escort and head to Sumatra and Singapore.
 
Story 1926

Port Said, Egypt March 1, 1943



HMS Norfolk followed the trio of coastal minesweepers. The lanes had been cleared. It had been over a year since an enemy mine had been found in these waters. However just last week, a drifting mine that broke free of its moorings had been cleared. That mine had been laid in 1940 just before war broke out and the Italian Red Sea flotilla was still a threat. It would not have cared that its horns touched the hull of one of His Majesty’s ships instead of the hull of an enemy.


Behind the heavy cruiser, the fast convoy that had started in the Clyde and rested at Gibraltar before crossing the entire inland sea assembled. Enough supplies to keep the reorganized 11th Army operational for a full quarter were aboard. The 14th Army was being folded into the 11th Army. Five divisions, including an armored division, were in the process of being redeployed back to the European theaters. Slow convoys had already started to move some of the irreplaceable heavy equipment from Malaya to Egypt, Libya and the Salisbury Plain. Most of the equipment was being left in the theatre. New gear would be supplied to the troops who were still waiting for the fast liners while their old gear, obsolete against Germans but more than sufficient against the Japanese, would form a theatre replacement pool.


But until then, the look-outs aboard the heavy cruiser and the division of escorting destroyers would keep a sharp eye open until they arrived at Singapore.
 
Story 1927

Belfast, March 1, 1943



HMS Bruiser, HMS Boxer and HMS Thruster formed the front portion of the second column of seven. Escorts darted around the ungainly and awkward amphibious ships. They were loaded with factory fresh tanks and firing range dirty guns. Some of the landing ships had the vehicle crews aboard while other soldiers had already headed to the front aboard fast liners in an earlier convoy.
 

formion

Banned
To ignite the conversation, what are the posters views on the development and deployment of US divisions ITTL?

A useful book on the topic is Matloff's "Strategic planning for coalition warfare, 1943-1944" (https://b-ok.org/book/2060772/8fdb64).

I think as in OTL, the US Army will move forward with the 90-Divisions scheme. I have read the argument that a more dedicated Europe First strategy could yield 12 more divisions for the ETO by September 1944. Matloff stated that by the end of 1942 there were 9 US Army Divisions at the Pacific Theater and by September 1944 the number rose to 21. ITTL where there is a Commonwealth Army in SE Asia, an active KNIL that can easily field 6 divisions and a garrison of 50,000 in Bataan, what are the needs of US Army for the years 1943 and 1944 ? We may assume that the development of the Marine Divisions as the same as in OTL.

12 Divisions would make a hell of a difference in ETO during 1944. Combining with the general greater availability of trained manpower ( I had made a list in post #2196),the ETO from the WAllied perspective is possibly quite more different than in OTL.
 
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