Kevin Rudd WI

Teejay

Gone Fishin'
Kevin Rudd Australian Prime Minister from 2007-2010 and in 2013 was the member for the Queensland House of Representatives seat of Griffith in Brisbane from 1993-1996 and 1998-2013. He was defeated in the 1996 federal election in Griffith by the Liberal party candidate Graeme McDougall. In OTL he defeated Graeme McDougall at the 1998 Federal election.

The two POD's

Firstly; is that Kevin Rudd decides after his defeat in Griffith in 1996 to decide to get into Queensland state politics and it would likely that Graeme McDougall narrowly retain the division of Griffith in 1998 and possibly represent that electorate until the 2007 election.

Secondly; Kevin Rudd does not decide to enter federal politics in the first place and decides to go into Queensland state politics instead.

How would in these timelines how would Kevin Rudd's career in Queensland state politics go and without Kevin Rudd becoming Labor leader in 2007, who would be Labor leader instead. I would argue that without Kevin Rudd as leader Labor was highly likely going to win the 2007 federal election.
 
I have no idea about Queensland State Politics. Without Rudd being in a position to become, then you're left with Swan or Smith as far candidates from Labor Right are concerned. Gillard would be in contention as well but it'll be a question of whether or not they dare to go with someone from the Left.
 

Teejay

Gone Fishin'
I have no idea about Queensland State Politics. Without Rudd being in a position to become, then you're left with Swan or Smith as far candidates from Labor Right are concerned. Gillard would be in contention as well but it'll be a question of whether or not they dare to go with someone from the Left.

I tend to go for wither Wayne Swan or Stephen Smith as Labor leader which would help with Labor winning seats in Queensland (Wayne Swan) or Western Australia (Stephen Smith). If either became Prime Minister you would see a much more stable, unified Labor government than in OTL.
 
Quick response: PM Beazley 2007.

If he stays in #Qldpol, then I don't see him becoming Premier. The timing just doesn't work. Peter Beattie is in the ascendancy and I don't see him changing his anointed successor in Anna Bligh. Given the relationship the two had, this article from the Courier Mail is worth quoting:
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/...t/news-story/67210ba5c067d3cc690d68782569cb78
The same observer described the Beattie-Rudd relationship as ''tempestuous'', and dates that history back nearly a quarter of a century to the period when Rudd was chief of staff to former Queensland Premier Wayne Goss and Beattie had moved from being the publicity hungry State ALP secretary to the member for Brisbane Central in the post-Fitzgerald Goss-slide of 1989.

At that stage both Goss and his chief of staff (that would be Mr Rudd) viewed Beattie as something of a threat. He was not only ambitious and already a canny media operator, but also perceived as something of a leaker when it befell personal advantage - something Rudd could presumably relate to given events of recent years.

Despite Beattie's high profile and talent he was locked out of the Goss ministry until 1995 when he was handed the hospital pass of the Health portfolio… not that long before the Mundingburra by-election which ultimately brought the demise of the Labor government.

Those there at the time describe the relationship between he and Rudd as strained, with Rudd viewing many in Cabinet in somewhat contemptuous fashion. Further, Beattie's insatiable appetite for publicity (it was there in spades during his time as chair of the Parliament's CJC oversight committee when he sided with then CJC chair Max Bingham on a number of contentious issues that damaged the Goss government's public standing) was also seen as less than helpful.

Certainly Beattie's messy ascension to the Labor leadership throne post Mundingburra (with a narrowly averted challenge to Goss) did little to endear the man some of his then colleagues refer to as the ''one man band leader'' to either Goss or Rudd - who at that stage had his sights set on the seat of Griffith.

That said, by 1998 Beattie was Premier, and Rudd (after failing in 1996) was the newly minted member for Griffith, and their paths diverged - so much so that when the Rudd Prime Ministerial star was ascendant in 2007 Beattie was bowing out while still on top.

From Confessions of a Faceless Man (2010), by Australian Workers' Union national secretary Paul Howes:
"(Beattie) told me plainly 'that bloke stuffed up the Goss Government, stuffed up his own government and, during the election, did his best to stuff up Julia's government. No one should ever forget the damage that he has done'."
This Guardian article was also less than optimistic about their relationship: https://www.theguardian.com/world/australia-news-blog/2013/aug/08/rudd-beattie-play-happy-couple

I don't see Rudd being Beattie's successor. I think Rudd's self-belief, ambition, insecurities and ego would undo him before he got anywhere near the executive annexe.
 
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