Kennedy 38

Along with his brother surviving, RFK surviving and becoming president is a common president ATL. However with that scenario covered so many times, I'm wondering what the effect would be if he became president later than most expected? Let's say that the bullet that killed him hits his shoulder instead. For whatever reason, Humphrey gets nominated instead and beaten by Nixon, who's next four years as president go as they did IOTL. Robert Kennedy wins either in '72 or '76. What do you think his presidency would look like?
 
Last edited:
Along with his brother surviving, RFK surviving and becoming president is a common president ATL. However with that scenario covered so many times, I'm wondering what the effect would be if he became president later than most expected? Let's say that the bullet that killed him hits his shoulder instead. Since he's already lost his brother from bullet, RFK declines being nominated. Humphrey gets nominated and beaten by Nixon, who's next four years as president go as they did IOTL. He runs for re-election, but is beaten by Robert Kennedy. A 47 year old Bobby becomes America's 38th President. So how do you think Robert F Kennedy's presidency will look in the wake of Nixon(1969-1973)?

If you want RFK to be POTUS later than in OTL a much simpler and more plausible way to do it is to have him not assassinated--and lose the 1968 Democratic nomination. The notion that victory in the California primary guaranteed RFK the nomination if he lived is largely based on a misunderstanding of how the nomination process worked in 1968--primaries were not as decisive as they are nowadays. While RFK and McCarthy were knocking each other out in the primaries, Humphrey was quietly accumulating enough delegates to put himself within hailing distance of a convention majority. I know some people think that Mayor Daley and others would have switched to RFK if he had lived, but I am skeptical about that; see my post at https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...ted-rfk-if-he-had-lived.443752/#post-17022521

If RFK is not seriously wounded and gets the nomination, I think it unlikely he would turn it down--it would go against his self-image of courage. What is much more plausible is that he won't get the nomination.

(Incidentally, I doubt that RFK or any other Democrat would beat Nixon in 1972 anyway--I think 1976 would be a much more promising year for RFK--but that's another matter.)
 
If you want RFK to be POTUS later than in OTL a much simpler and more plausible way to do it is to have him not assassinated--and lose the 1968 Democratic nomination. The notion that victory in the California primary guaranteed RFK the nomination if he lived is largely based on a misunderstanding of how the nomination process worked in 1968--primaries were not as decisive as they are nowadays. While RFK and McCarthy were knocking each other out in the primaries, Humphrey was quietly accumulating enough delegates to put himself within hailing distance of a convention majority. I know some people think that Mayor Daley and others would have switched to RFK if he had lived, but I am skeptical about that; see my post at https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...ted-rfk-if-he-had-lived.443752/#post-17022521

If RFK is not seriously wounded and gets the nomination, I think it unlikely he would turn it down--it would go against his self-image of courage. What is much more plausible is that he won't get the nomination.

(Incidentally, I doubt that RFK or any other Democrat would beat Nixon in 1972 anyway--I think 1976 would be a much more promising year for RFK--but that's another matter.)

Duly noted. Just ignore what I said about the cause and have RFK get nominated/become president in the seventies instead. The reason isn't important, the point is that he's president in the 70s rather than '69 like many hoped
 
Duly noted. Just ignore what I said about the cause and have RFK get nominated/become president in the seventies instead. The reason isn't important, the point is that he's president in the 70s rather than '69 like many hoped

If he runs in 1972, he could get the nomination and perform strongly in the general election - while most likely losing to Nixon. A Nixon-Kennedy matchup would less like the OTL blowout and more like 2004. And unlike Kerry, RFK may be given a second chance in 1976. If Watergate happens during and after a close election instead of a landslide, many would question if Nixon had been fairly elected or if he'd stolen the election. So Kennedy could get the nomination again in 1976 and easily win. However, Reagan may primary Ford if he can convince Republican voters that only he has the charisma to defeat the popular Kennedy. He almost defeated Ford at the convention after all, that kind of change in political circumstances might serve to put Reagan over the top. But he would certainly lose to RFK.
 
Top