Kemp-Roth: Now that's the ticket!

1980
The Nashua Telegraph offers to host a debate between Reagan and Bush. Worried that a newspaper-sponsored debate might violate electoral regulations, Reagan subsequently arranges to fund the event with his own campaign money, inviting the other candidates to participate at short notice. The Bush camp does not learn of Reagan's decision to include the other candidates until the debate is due to commence. Bush refuses to participate, which leads to an impasse on the stage. As Reagan attempts to explain his decision, Jon Breen, editor of the Nashua Telegraph ordered the sound man to mute Reagan's microphone. A visibly angry Reagan responded "I am paying for this microphone, Mr. Green!" Eventually the other candidates agree to leave, and the debate proceeds between Reagan and Bush. Reagan's quote is often repeated as "I paid for this microphone!" and dominates news coverage of the event; Bush fails to make an impact with the voters.

Less than 24 hours after the debate, Governor Ronald Reagan suffers a fatal heart attack. With the GOP campaign for the Presidency wide open, many if Reagan's supporters are looking for a candidate to support. Some even blame George Bush for Reagan's death.

After meeting with his family, Rep. Jack Kemp of New York decides to run in the New Hampshire primary as a write-in candidate.

When all the votes are counted, the anti-tax mood in the state gives Kemp a GOP primary victory with 36% of the vote. Senator Robert Dole finishes second with 25% and Iowa caucus victor George H.W. Bush is third with 24%. The rest of the Republican candidates finish in single digits and drop out. John Anderson announces his endorsement of Kemp.

Kemp also manages to get 12% of the Democratic primary vote which is won by Senator Edward Kennedy.

With Kemp getting the "big mo", he sweeps the Southern primaries and ultimately the Republican Presidential nomination. He announces that Senator William Roth of Delaware is his running mate.

In Novermber, Kemp wins 58% of the popular vote against the incumbent Jimmy Carter and wins 46 states. Republicans win the Senate but Democrats hold on to the House.

Up next is 1981. I welcome any reactions to the above and your suggestions as to who President-elect Kemp should appoint to his cabinet.
 
Well… besides the stark unlikelihood of Kemp running in 1980, the entirely unplausible 58% of the vote against Carter, and the chances of Roth being picked for the VP slot (like, zero, if Kemp is the Presidential nominee)… ok, so it's pretty out there.


Now if you Kemp in '84, that's probably doable. Kill Reagan as you did, have George Bush or whoever lose against Carter (i.e. the conservatives want someone more conservative than Bush, and blame losing the election on that), and have the OTL 1981-82 recession occur and the Republicans could elect just about anybody against Mondale or whoever the '84 Democratic nominee was.

Also, Kemp could claim that his tax cut would have improved the US, he will have been able to raise his profile, and with Reagan and George Bush out of the picture, the only Republicans running in 1984 are weak campaigners (Dole, Baker), also-rans of 1980 (everybody), or just as junior as Kemp.

Further four more years of Carter with, probably, no tax cuts (albeit some deregulation, which will help) should take the anti-tax climate even higher.


But Kemp in 1980? Just too unlikely.
 
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