Keeping the British Liberal Party flag flying high

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by pipisme, Jun 26, 2009.

  1. pipisme Well-Known Member

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    'The results from two more Lancashire seats have come in and they are both held by the Conservatives. In Preston South they have a majority of 17.7% over Liberal, up from 9.3%, but in Blackpool Stanley Park the Liberals have reduced the Tory majority from 8.8% to 1.2%.' [1] 'These are swings of 4.2% from Liberal to Conservative in Preston, and 3.8% from Conservative to Liberal in Blackpool.' 'Why the swing to the Tories there?' 'I would attribute it to redistribution which transferred Conservative voting areas to the adjacent North Fylde constituency.'

    'The Liberals have held Kensington North with only a small fall in their majority over Conservative from 4.6% to 5.3%.' 'This is a swing of only 0.35% from Liberal to Conservative.'

    [1] Blackpool Stanley Park is roughly equivalent to Blackpool North in OTL.
     
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  2. pipisme Well-Known Member

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    'Manchester Moss Side is a Conservative gain from Liberal with a majority of 3.1%. What was a Liberal majority of 7.9% is now a Conservative majority of 3.1%. We now have the result for Reading. Peter Emery has taken the seat for the Tories with a majority of 4.3%. This is a new constituency created out of the merging of Reading North and Reading South.' 'North was a marginal Tory seat and South a marginal Liberal one.' 'We have the first result from Birmingham. It is the Moseley division which Tom Iremonger has held for the Conservatives. His majority has increased from 3.8% to 14.6%. There is a recount in Glasgow Camlachie.' 'Who has asked for it? 'The Socialist Labour candidate and his agent.'

    We have just had news that Socialist Labour has gained Glasgow Maryhill from Conservative. Let's have a look at the figures:
    Sarah Macleod [Socialist Labour and Co-operative]: 45.2% [34.9%]
    Conservative candidate: 35.1% [38.0%]
    Liberal candidate: 19.7% [27.1%]
    ------------------------------------------------------------
    Socialist Labour majority: 10.1% [Conservative majority: 3.1%]
    -----------------------------------------------------------
    Miss Macleod is twenty-five years old and so far is the youngest candidate elected. She works as a shop assistant in a leading department store in Glasgow.' [1] 'Socialist Labour had high hopes of gaining the seat. Sir Ian Clark Hutchinson who had held it since 1946 was retiring, and they had reduced his majority to 1016 at the last general election. Miss Macleod's majority is 3.528. The swing from Conservative to Socialist Labour is 6.6%, which is the highest so far.

    [1] She is a fictional character.
     
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  3. Archangel Battery-powered Bureaucrat

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    Keep it up, pip! :)
     
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  4. pipisme Well-Known Member

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    'The Conservatives have held Brighton Montpelier and Portsmouth South.' [1] 'There is no surprise there. Their majorities over Liberal are 25.0% and 40.2%, with swings from Liberal to Conservative of 2.9% and 5.7% respectively.' 'The Conservatives have taken Oxford from the Liberals. But with a majority of only 439 or 0.8%, compared with the previous Liberal majority of 213 or 0.4%.' 'That is a swing of 0.6% from Liberal to Conservative.'

    'We must now go over to Birmingham City Hall for the declaration of the result for the Edgbaston constituency where Mr Profumo is seeking re-election.' The returning officer having read out the number of votes cast for each candidate says 'and I hereby declare that the said John Dennis Profumo is hereby elected to serve as member of parliament for the said constituency.' Then the three candidates, starting with Profumo, give their speeches of thanks. Profumo's wife, Valerie Hobson, is with her husband. Back in the election night studio. 'Our reporter in Birmingham is interviewing Mr Profumo.'

    'Congratulations on your victory, sir.'

    'Thank you.'

    'How do you think the results are going for your party?'

    'So far, on balance, they have been going moderately well.'

    'Do you think that a Conservative government will be taking office tomorrow?'

    'It is too early to say, but I am cautiously optimistic.'

    'Thank you sir.'

    Profumo's wife, Valerie Hobson, was at the count with him.

    'Let's have the Edgbaston figures:
    John Dennis Profumo: Conservative: 62.2% [56.3%]
    Liberal candidate: 23.5% [28.0%]
    Socialist Labour candidate: 14.3% [!5.7%]
    ------------------------------------
    Conservative majority: 38.7% [28.3%]
    -------------------------------------
    'That is a swing of 5.2% from Liberal to Conservative.'

    [1] Brighton Montpelier is roughly the equivalent of Brighton Pavilion in OTL.
     
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  5. sarahz Well-Known Member

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  6. pipisme Well-Known Member

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    'Three more results in from London. The Conservatives have held Kensington South, and the Liberals Bethnal Green. Camberwell North is a Socialist Labour gain from Liberal.' There is swing from Liberal to Conservative in Kensington South of 2.8% and swings from Liberal to Socialist Labour in Bethnal Green and Camberwell North of 3.4% and 3.7% respectively.'

    'We now have the first result from Northern Ireland. It is Belfast North. As expected Mr Stratton Mills has held it for the Ulster Unionists, but his majority over Northern Ireland Labour has fallen from 24.9% to 14.7%.' 'That is a swing of 5.1% from Ulster Unionist to Northern Ireland Labour. In Belfast two new constituencies, Belfast North-West and Belfast South-West have replaced Belfast West. This result has boosted Northern Ireland Labour's hopes of winning North-West and possibly South-West.' 'Socialist Labour have held Farnworth. Mr Ernest Thornton has increased his majority over Liberal from 12.0% to 15.5%. Mr Ralph Kilner Brown, the parliamentary secretary ministry of works is back in Oldbury and Halesowen. But his majority over Conservative has fallen from 26.3% to !6.0%.
     
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  7. Archangel Battery-powered Bureaucrat

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    Keep it up, pip! :)
     
  8. pipisme Well-Known Member

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    'Socialist Labour have held Glasgow Shettleston. Their majority Conservative has increased from 13.2% to 17.2%. As expected the Conservatives have won Liverpool West Derby, but their majority over Conservative is practically unchanged at 15.0%, compared with 15.1% previously. We have news of a recount in Bury.' 'It has been requested by the Conservative candidate and his agent. The Liberals are defending a majority of 4.8%.' 'Mr Frederick Mulley is back in Sheffield Park for Socialist Labour. His majority over Conservative is 23.7%. In the 1955 election he had a majority of 22.6 over Liberal.' 'There is a swing of a quarter of one percent from Conservative to Socialist Labour. The Liberals have kept Islington East with their majority over Conservative having fallen from 13.2% to 8.4%. Let us have a look at the figures':
    Liberal: 36.7% [40.8%]
    Conservative: 28.3% [27.6%]
    Socialist Labour: 25.0 [21.6%]
    -----------------------------
    Liberal majority: 8.4% [13.2%]
    -----------------------------
    'The below average swing of 2.9% from Liberal to Conservative is in line with those in London constituencies.'

    ' Three more results have come in from Birmingham. The Conservatives have held Aston, and gained Sparkbrook from Socialist Labour, where they have defeated Mr Dennis Howell. But Ladywood has been held by Socialist Labour. In Aston the Conservative majority over Socialist Labour has risen from 1.1% to 11.4%. In Ladywood the Socialist Labour majority over Conservative has fallen from 35.2% to 28.3%. In Sparkbrook, a Socialist Labour majority has become a Conservative majority of 5.1%. Here are the figures':
    'Conservative candidate: 42.8% [35.2%]
    Dennis Howell (Socialist Labour): 37.7% [39.8%]
    Liberal candidate: 19.5% [25.0%]
    -----------------------------------------------------------
    Conservative majority: 5.1% [Socialist Labour majority: 4.6%
    -----------------------------------------------------------
    'The swings from Socialist Labour to Conservative are 5.15% in Aston, 3.45% in Ladywood and 4.85% in Sparkbrook.'

    'The Liberals have held Islington North, with Socialist Labour pushing the Conservatives into third place, Let's see the figures.
    Liberal candidate: 38.2% [41.5%]
    Socialist Labour candidate: 31.3% [29.2%]
    Conservative candidate: 30.5% [29.3%]
    ---------------------------------
    Liberal majority: 6.9% [12.2%]
    --------------------------------
    'This is a swing of 2.7% from Liberal to Socialist Labour.'
     
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  9. pipisme Well-Known Member

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    The Tories hold Blackpool Squires Gate [roughly equivalent to Blackpool South in OTL] but their majority over Liberal is slashed from 10.7% to 4.5%. This is because of boundary changes which transferred Tory voting areas to the adjacent South Fylde constituency. The Conservatives also take the new seats of Coventry North-West and Coventry South with majorities over Liberal of 8.3% and 14.1% respectively. Of the three Coventry seats, the Tories now have two and Socialist Labour one, compared with one Tory and one Socialist Labour before the election when there were two seats for Coventry. The Liberals keep Dudley but their majority over Conservative is reduced from 15.8% to 6.4%. But at 4.7% the swing from Liberal to Conservative is below the West Midlands average. The Tories hold Southend East but their majority over Liberal is 0.4%, compared with 2.2% in the 1955 general election.
     
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  10. Archangel Battery-powered Bureaucrat

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    Keep it up, pip! :)
     
  11. pipisme Well-Known Member

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    The Liberals hold Chesterfield with their majority over Socialist Labour up from 0.5% to 4.6%. This is against the trend as in most of the results declared so far there is a swing from Liberal to Socialist Labour. The Tories have kept Brighton Woodingdean [about the same as Brighton Kemptown in OTL] but their majority over Liberal has increased only from 1.1% to 3.9%. Stanley McMaster is back in Belfast East for the Ulster Unionist Party, but with a drastic reduction in his majority. The figures are as follows [1955 general election]:
    Stanley McMaster: Ulster Unionist: 39.4 [51.1]
    Northern Ireland Labour: 30.6 [23.0]
    Progressive: 30.0 [25.9]
    ---------------------------------
    Ulster Unionist majority: 8.8 [25.2}
    ---------------------------------
     
  12. pipisme Well-Known Member

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    The Liberals hold Bolton East and Willesden East with their majorities over Conservative reduced from 12.9% to 9.1%, and from 14.1% to 7.5% respectively. The Conservatives are back again in Lewisham North with only a small increase in their majority over Liberal from 5.5% to 9.1%. The Tories also take the new constituency of Liverpool Toxteth. But their majority over Liberal is only 6.5%. This seat was created by merging the fairly safe Conservative seat East Toxteth and the very marginal Tory seat of West Toxteth.

    Barnsley is a Socialist Labour gain from Liberal. Here are the figures [1955 general election]:
    Socialist Labour: 42.6% [39.2%]
    Liberal: 41.1% [47.2%]
    Conservative: 16.3% [13.6%]
    -------------------------------
    Socialist Labour majority: 1.5% [Liberal majority: 8.0%]
    -------------------------------
    There is a swing of 4.75% from Liberal to Socialist Labour. The President of the Board of Trade, Honor Balfour, is back in Rochdale. Her majority over Socialist Labour is down from 37.8% to 34.2%. She is the most senior cabinet minister re-elected so far. She says in interviews with the media that she is hopeful that the Liberal Party will form the government after the election. She is regarded as a contender for the Liberal leadership when Megan Lloyd George retires.
     
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  13. Archangel Battery-powered Bureaucrat

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    Keep it up, pip! :)
     
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  14. pipisme Well-Known Member

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    Socialist Labour gain Vauxhall from Liberal with a majority of 5.8%. The Liberal majority was 0.2%. Also in London, Socialist Labour also hold Battersea North with a majority of 18.8% over Liberal, up from 14.6%, and take the new seat of Shoreditch and Finsbury with a majority of 11.5% over Liberal. The Tories keep Ruislip-Northwood with their majority over Liberal up from 2.5% to 14.3%. Middlesbrough West is a Conservative gain from Liberal. Here are the figures [1955 election]:
    Conservative: 47.4% [39.9%]
    Liberal: 38.2% [45.2%]
    Socialist Labour: 14.4% [14.9%]
    --------------------------------
    Conservative majority: 9.2% [Liberal majority: 5.3%]
    -------------------------------
    That is a swing of 7.25% from Liberal to Conservative.
     
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  15. pipisme Well-Known Member

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    The Conservatives have taken Grimsby from Socialist Labour with a majority of 153. Both parties increased their vote at the expense of the Liberals, as shown here:
    Conservative: 39.4% [34.8%]
    Socialist Labour: 39.1% [35.5%]
    Liberal: 21.5% [29.7%]
    --------------------------------
    Conservative majority: 0.3% [Socialist Labour majority: 0.7%]
    --------------------------------
    This is a 0.5% swing from Socialist Labour to Conservative.

    The Liberals have gained Barrow-in-Furness from the Tories with a majority of 2.9%. The Conservative majority was 1.3%. There is another Liberal gain from the Tories at Watford, where a Tory majority of 3.4% is now a Liberal majority of 1.8%. The Liberals have held Northampton. Their majority over Conservative is down from 10.2% to 6.1%. The swing of 2.05% from Liberal to Conservative is below the average.

    Bessie Braddock, the formidable Socialist Labour member for Liverpool Exchange has been re-elected. Her majority over Conservative is slightly up from 22.5% to 23.1%. In the neighbouring Scotland constituency David Logan is back for Socialist Labour. His majority over Conservative is down from 28.0% to 25.1%.
     
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  16. Archangel Battery-powered Bureaucrat

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    Keep it up, pip! :)
     
  17. pipisme Well-Known Member

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    Islington South-West is a Socialist Labour gain from Liberal with a majority of 6.4%, compared with the previous Liberal majority of 3.1%. The Tories have held Edinburgh Pentlands and have gained Cambridge from Liberal with a majority of 3.0%. The Liberal majority was 2.2%. Socialist Labour have held Deptford and Woolwich East. The Conservatives have retained Putney but their majority over Liberal is down from 9.0% to 2.4%. This is because of council housing in the Roehampton estate in the constituency. Here are the figures for Putney [1955 election]:
    Conservative: 41.6% [46.6%]
    Liberal: 39.2% [37.6%]
    Socialist Labour: 19.2% [15.8%]
    ----------------------------------
    Conservative majority: 2.4% [9.0%]
    ---------------------------------
    There is a swing of 3.3% from Conservative to Liberal.
     
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  18. idumea lurking encouragement

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    I pity the person calculating a uniform national swing from some of these results. It looks like this election has in many places defied the national polls and been fought on local issues.
     
  19. pipisme Well-Known Member

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    So far, the average swing from Liberal to Conservative is around four percent, but with regional variations. Also there is a tendency for the swing to be smaller in seats which incumbent popular Liberal MPs are defending.

    Sir Elwyn Jones has held the new seat of West Ham South for Socialist Labour. Sir Elwyn is a one time Attorney-General. The Liberals have taken Paddington North from Conservative with a majority of 0.7%. Here are the figures:
    Liberal: 34.2% [33.3%]
    Conservative: 33.5% [35.8%]
    Socialist Labour: 32.3% [30.9%]
    -------------------------------
    Liberal majority: 0.7% [Conservative majority: 2.5%]
    --------------------------------
    The swing from Conservative to Liberal is 1.6%.

    There are a considerable number of tenants who rent privately in the constituency and it is thought that the Tory policy to end rent control lost them votes.

    John Hynd is back in Sheffield Attercliffe. He is a member of the Socialist Labour shadow cabinet and a former Minister of Transport.
     
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  20. Archangel Battery-powered Bureaucrat

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    Keep it up, pip! :)