Keeping Italy Liberal | No Mussolini Discussion

if Giolitti had not called the elections in 1921, he probably could have completed the rehabilitation of the economy.
in subsequent elections the liberals would have been stronger, so they would not have supported the fascists.
 
So no WWI (or an intervention in last days to take Trento and Trieste)
Neutral Italy means A-H is unlikely to collapse - and a CP victory is more likely by a fair amount with an earlier Russian defeat and Austro-Hungarian troops in Northern France, not to talk about a safer Mediterranean. If it's benevolent neutrality (which I doubt, but who knows), that means a lot fewer issues with food, as well.
 
Neutral Italy means A-H is unlikely to collapse - and a CP victory is more likely by a fair amount with an earlier Russian defeat and Austro-Hungarian troops in Northern France, not to talk about a safer Mediterranean. If it's benevolent neutrality (which I doubt, but who knows), that means a lot fewer issues with food, as well.
I agree.
Italian neutrality would be hugely beneficial to Italy (that is pretty clear in hindsight) at least in the short-to-mid term (long term continuation of the Liberal consensus and a more generally conservative society could prove hindrances over the decades, but that is another point).
But it would impact the wider war quite massively, improving the odds for the CP significantly (especially as Romania, for instance, would be far less likely to join with a neutral Italy, and I am under the impression tha this also applies to Greece) and changing the outcome anyway.
If the Entente still wins (which may take a bit longer, or be a less decisive affaire with a "negotiated" peace) it is unclear what happens to Austria, and in the event of an Austrian collapse ( less likely, though a postwar AH would likely be very messy) or with a punitive peace Italy may still take Trento, and possibly Trieste, in a way similar to how Denmark got Northern Schleswig at the peace table even without taking part in the war.
(Or maybe Italy decides to profit from Austrian instability to try to grab more, and find herself in a complex quagmire across the Adriatic... but I don't think it's very likely, especially with a cautious Giolitti in charge).
 
I agree.
Italian neutrality would be hugely beneficial to Italy (that is pretty clear in hindsight) at least in the short-to-mid term (long term continuation of the Liberal consensus and a more generally conservative society could prove hindrances over the decades, but that is another point).
But it would impact the wider war quite massively, improving the odds for the CP significantly (especially as Romania, for instance, would be far less likely to join with a neutral Italy, and I am under the impression tha this also applies to Greece) and changing the outcome anyway.
If the Entente still wins (which may take a bit longer, or be a less decisive affaire with a "negotiated" peace) it is unclear what happens to Austria, and in the event of an Austrian collapse ( less likely, though a postwar AH would likely be very messy) or with a punitive peace Italy may still take Trento, and possibly Trieste, in a way similar to how Denmark got Northern Schleswig at the peace table even without taking part in the war.
(Or maybe Italy decides to profit from Austrian instability to try to grab more, and find herself in a complex quagmire across the Adriatic... but I don't think it's very likely, especially with a cautious Giolitti in charge).

The question then becomes, in a CP victory are the chances of a punitive treaty ceding to Italy Nice, and possibly more of the Alpes departments(s), Corsica or Malta?
Getting more of the Irredenta lands without a shot fired by the Italian side would appease the nationalists and prove to them that one of their historical enemies (France) is a butter eating weakling.
 
"No Mussolini" is a necessary condition for a Liberal Italy, but not a sufficient one.

Indeed, but all PoDs must be set up and I believe something involving Mussolini is, perhaps, the most paramount - even Italy ducking out of the World War leads to this as fascism doesn't necessarily come into it's own as an ideology and proto-fascism remains a nameless branch of National Syndicalism.
 
The question then becomes, in a CP victory are the chances of a punitive treaty ceding to Italy Nice, and possibly more of the Alpes departments(s), Corsica or Malta?
Getting more of the Irredenta lands without a shot fired by the Italian side would appease the nationalists and prove to them that one of their historical enemies (France) is a butter eating weakling.
With neutral Italy?
Minimal. Austria would probably oppose the idea on principle and Germany would not to be so keen on giving something for not fighting. The CP will not be in the position to enforce on Entente powers as a whole, especially not the Western ones, the same kind of punitive peace they did at Brest-Litovsk. it is debatable that an enforced referendum in Nice would return a majority for Italy except perhaps in the Roja valley (which is small, insignificant and "ethnically Italian" enough that the Germans can feasibly ask for it to be handed over and the French, while pissed, wouldn't care enough not to comply, just as a gesture of goodwill to Rome). I am not sure about Corsica (which the French would be very bitter about) which, while also ethnically Italian, AFAIK had very little if any local irredentism desiring union with Italy (while there was discontent for France for sure). But Britain would have France's back in negotiations and object to anything substantial (which Corsica would be). No way anything British, such as Malta can be ceded (this is hard to see even with CP Italy from the outset and decisive CP victory).
Anything else, except perhaps truly token concessions regarding colonial borders in the Sahara (Bourkou, a forbidding and underpopulated area even by Saharan standards) requires Italy actually firing shots.
EDIT: Germany is also far less likely to ask for referendums in "irredent" areas (which is the only condition by which France can plausibly agree to cede something like Nice or Corsica) that the Entente was in Schleswig or Upper Silesia. Among other things, someone might then float the notion of doing one in Alsace-Lorraine.
 
The better way is having Wilson crashing to death on his way to Paris; no 14 points, no mutilated victory, a lot of land more were to employ the veterans, all in all, better publòicity for the liberals. Beside without the 14 points the self-determination principlr is not imposed and the treaties are less heavy. World War 2 may be avoided.
 
The better way is having Wilson crashing to death on his way to Paris; no 14 points, no mutilated victory, a lot of land more were to employ the veterans, all in all, better publòicity for the liberals. Beside without the 14 points the self-determination principlr is not imposed and the treaties are less heavy. World War 2 may be avoided.
Well, the weight of Versailles is more on France's shoulders than anything else - they wanted to declaw Germany for good, and a heavy treaty was the best way short of a costly occupation they could not afford. Saint Germain/Trianon is likely to be quite different, though, which might be to Italy's benefit.
 
Or it might not if they have to spend huge amounts of money to control or develop their new lands.
 
Or it might not if they have to spend huge amounts of money to control or develop their new lands.
It's not like Italy is going to eat A-H whole anyway. The difference would be minimal on a national scale. Fiume, for sure, and Zadar/Zara, with maybe some other snippets of Dalmatia. While some might try and go for the whole thing down to Dubrovnik/Ragusa, I doubt that would end up happening.
 
The whole Damatian coast was Italophile and Italophone.

Well no, only (some of) the islands and the biggest coastal towns - just outside of said towns, people spoke Croatian already - sure, a very Venetian-influenced kind of Croatian, but Croatian nonetheless. A sane Italy would most likely stick to the islands and the major cities, without trying to claim the whole region.
 
The coast of Dalmatia spoke Italian, the interior spoke Croate.

Sure but yes, from a pure strategic and ethnic pov, it has been a much better move concentrate on obtaining more island and a city or two more like Sebenick/Sebenico and Split/Spalato and transform this 'concession' in a method to get Fiume immediately
 
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