Keeping Cool with Coolidge. Again.

Coolidge had a heart condition that he successfully concealed at the time of his choosing not to run for re-election. It was the primary mover behind his not seeking re-election when he could have had it easily.

Had he gotten his second term (and he likely would have, he was a popular peacetime president), he likely would not have lived to see the end of it, or quite possibly even the first two years of it.

Never, ever underestimate the kind of stress the White House is for its most famous resident, even in the comparatively relaxed presidency of the 1920's, it was still a demanding job with long hours, lots of travel, and constant stress.

As has been mentioned, he eventually did die of a heart attack, and he had suffered one shortly before the announcement of his decision not to run in 1928. Simply put, he wasn't going to make it through his term if he was re-elected, and he knew it.

Free-market Coolidge will, as others have said, veto the Hawley-Smoot Tariff, and I also agree with the general consensus that it will take the edge off of the Depression, so it will be remembered as yet another of a series of American recessions that was particularly nasty for farmers because of the Dust Bowl. But without sweeping and systemic reforms, the system will eventually come crashing down in a nasty way, it just won't happen at the same time or under the same circumstances as historically, but sooner or later the fact that the entire financial sector is basically getting by on cooking the books is going to have an enormous backlash.


No, it really wouldn't be worse.

That tariff bill effectively created a tariff war between nations that created the Great Depression as we know it, expanding it beyond a large but simple Panic.

Now, unlike Hoover he won't support New Deal like policies which will certainly hurt in the long run, but overall the Recession is much smaller and unemployment far below what we experienced historically. Coolidge might actually also live out his term, considering while the Presidency shortens the lifespans of its holders, Calvin died of a heart attack, an event that can change with the passage of time. Even were he to die however, it is easy to imagine that his Vice President would be one more in tune with his views, given he would not have supported either Hoover or Dawes.

So basically we experience a Mini-Depression.

What he said.

I completely disagree. A depression under Coolidge would have been far worse in the long run. What you are saying, is practically defending laissez-faire economics.

It wouldn't be a Depression under him.

I think it's safe to say that one of the more widely-accepted beliefs among both historians and economists who studied the Depression was that the vicious cycle of tariffs and counter-tariffs lead to the destruction of international trade and thus hamstrung any hope of recovery in the immediate short-term. Without the severe collapse of international trade, that isn't going to happen, and the "Depression" we knew it to be will be, as I've said, yet another of a series of stinging, short recessions that hit the agricultural sector with particular potency.

Others are mincing words and dancing around, so maybe in this case I shouldn't: your understanding of the economics of this time period as well as the United States in the Depression in general is fundamentally flawed. You're twisting facts to make a bygone era conform to your values, when in reality Coolidge was not at all a remarkably exceptional person when it came to his views on economics. Simply put, the United States had weathered quite a few stinging recessions, but never widespread and systemic economic collapse on the level of the Great Depression. Coolidge and really quite a few others had no real reason to think that the United States was approaching disaster, nor did they have any reason to think that this was any different from other recessions of the period, and respond with the same methods that had been used to alleviate them before.

If you looked at what people are saying in response to you, you'd notice that people are actually agreeing with you on certain points, particularly the fact that without reform the system is going to eventually fall apart in a rather spectacular way.

And by the way, one can defend laissez-faire economics, because last I checked it isn't on the same level as denying the Holocaust.
 
Last edited:
If the unemployment rate is 15% instead of 25 % people are still suffering. There are going to be runs on the banks. I suspect my grandparents could still lose their savings. As this TL doesn't change Franklin Roosevelt advantages, he is the Democrat that wins in 1932.

1923 - 1933 Calvin Cooldge
1933 - same as OTL

or

1923 - 1931 Calvin Cooldge
1931 - 1933 Charles Dawes
1933 - same as OTL
 

Japhy

Banned
If the unemployment rate is 15% instead of 25 % people are still suffering. There are going to be runs on the banks. I suspect my grandparents could still lose their savings. As this TL doesn't change Franklin Roosevelt advantages, he is the Democrat that wins in 1932.

1923 - 1933 Calvin Cooldge
1933 - same as OTL

or

1923 - 1931 Calvin Cooldge
1931 - 1933 Charles Dawes
1933 - same as OTL

Not if Smith fails to get the nomination in 1928, he stays on as Governor and FDR is left out come 1932.
 
If the unemployment rate is 15% instead of 25 % people are still suffering. There are going to be runs on the banks. I suspect my grandparents could still lose their savings. As this TL doesn't change Franklin Roosevelt advantages, he is the Democrat that wins in 1932.

1923 - 1933 Calvin Cooldge
1933 - same as OTL

or

1923 - 1931 Calvin Cooldge
1931 - 1933 Charles Dawes
1933 - same as OTL

Chances are Roosevelt is defeated in his bid for Governor of New York in 1928 on Coolidge's coat-tails. I imagine him running again in 1930 and winning of course, but there is no way he would have the kind of strength behind a Presidential bid that he had in OTL. That largely leaves Smith (despite losing by an even larger electoral margin than OTL in 1928), or some other dark horse we haven't thought of.

Dawes if off the ticket, if Coolidge has anything to say about it. He hated the man by the time the Convention of '28 came around. In discussion with others I have recommended Frank Lowden and William Kenyon as potential replacements for Dawes.

Unemployment would at best reach around 11-12%, not the 15% you are predicting.

I'll admit I was not aware Coolidge actually had any health issues regarding the heart, and a source I like to use, Doctor Zebra, doesn't mention it either though the page is still under construction. If that is the case, I am not sure how to make it so that he doesn't consider it a definitive answer, whatever the circumstances, as to running for another term of office.

Not if Smith fails to get the nomination in 1928, he stays on as Governor and FDR is left out come 1932.
I fail to see how one can keep Smith from the Presidential nomination in 1928; it was basically his best chance for the nomination, even if the prospects in the general election were long. Actually, I am not sure who else was really in the running for the Presidency besides Smith, given most of the others who received votes at the convention were more favorite sons rather than actual candidates for the nomination.


 

Japhy

Banned
I fail to see how one can keep Smith from the Presidential nomination in 1928; it was basically his best chance for the nomination, even if the prospects in the general election were long. Actually, I am not sure who else was really in the running for the Presidency besides Smith, given most of the others who received votes at the convention were more favorite sons rather than actual candidates for the nomination.

Smith's inner circle had serious questions about his ability to defeat Coolidge in 1928, after the 1924 Results, where they'd been beaten out in the convention they were looking at that defeat as a blessing. Robert Moses and James Farley just to name two were very much holding to the idea that if he waited a few more years 1932 would be a Democratic year and the Southern/Post-Bryan Democratic Factions would be willing to let the Progressive Governor of New York have the nomination with less of a fight and he'd be able to run better in the General despite his Catholic faith.

Though on the other hand 1928 was the one election that Smith didn't depend on his old inner circle so yes he still might run. In the end I just find Paul's assumption that everything goes like OTL, to be like all of his other instances of insisting that everything goes like OTL to be massively flawed.
 
Top