"Keeper of Promises" wins the 1962's Best Foreign Film Oscar

What would the consequences for Brazilian Cinema if the 1962's Brazilian movie "The Keeper of Promises" (aka The Given Word) actually won the Oscar for Best Foreign Movie?

Would it delay the rise of Cinema Novo?
 
I don't think Cinema Novo would be delayed since it was an established movement prior to the film's release (if only recently.) Also, success of this kind isn't likely to phase them- the film already won at Cannes, after all. Besides, it's not like the US market was ever important for the experimental filmmakers of Brazil. I also don't think greater success would steal from their pool of resources in any meaningful way.

It might allow Duarte to rise in prominence, but then the actual winner that year (Serge Bourguignon) didn't really do so. Most likely it just becomes another plank in the campaign to market Brazil as the country of the future in the 1960s.

What would be ironic is if the win piques the world's interest in Brazilian cinema of a similar intellectual heft and distributors start buying Cinema Novo films without realizing (or caring) that they're not fans of Duarte.

Cinema Novo never achieved the penetration it deserved. A world where the Brazilians are punching their weight along with the French and Italians in the arthouse is intriguing. Think of the back-and-forth that might happen. And think of the New Hollywood generation that learns to worship Rocha alongside the French, Italian, and Japanese heavyweights. How the influence of Cinema Novo on Hollywood might manifest itself, I can't even begin to imagine.
 
I don't think Cinema Novo would be delayed since it was an established movement prior to the film's release (if only recently.) Also, success of this kind isn't likely to phase them- the film already won at Cannes, after all. Besides, it's not like the US market was ever important for the experimental filmmakers of Brazil. I also don't think greater success would steal from their pool of resources in any meaningful way.

It might allow Duarte to rise in prominence, but then the actual winner that year (Serge Bourguignon) didn't really do so. Most likely it just becomes another plank in the campaign to market Brazil as the country of the future in the 1960s.

Probably you are right... but I was wondering if the success of "Keeper of Promises" would give strength to Brazilian-made commercial cinema at the same time than Cinema Novo...

What would be ironic is if the win piques the world's interest in Brazilian cinema of a similar intellectual heft and distributors start buying Cinema Novo films without realizing (or caring) that they're not fans of Duarte.

Cinema Novo never achieved the penetration it deserved. A world where the Brazilians are punching their weight along with the French and Italians in the arthouse is intriguing. Think of the back-and-forth that might happen. And think of the New Hollywood generation that learns to worship Rocha alongside the French, Italian, and Japanese heavyweights. How the influence of Cinema Novo on Hollywood might manifest itself, I can't even begin to imagine.

That would be a intriguing side effect.
 
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