Keep Bavaria and Baden-Wurttemberg separate from Germany to present

Possible? If so then for how long? And which one?

  • No

    Votes: 7 20.0%
  • World War One (Bavaria)

    Votes: 6 17.1%
  • World War Two (Bavaria)

    Votes: 1 2.9%
  • Cold War (Bavaria)

    Votes: 1 2.9%
  • Present (Bavaria)

    Votes: 3 8.6%
  • WW1 (Baden-Wurttemburg)

    Votes: 1 2.9%
  • WW2 (B-W)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • CW (B-W)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • P (B-W)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • WW1 (Both)

    Votes: 6 17.1%
  • WW2 (Both)

    Votes: 1 2.9%
  • CW (Both)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • P (Both)

    Votes: 9 25.7%

  • Total voters
    35
In my current TL I have Bavaria becoming a separate kingdom and including Baden- Wurtremberg as a separate kingdom within the nation. In my TL I do this with the inclusion of another major power in the split of the former Reich after the war.
Could have happened OTL if say France wanted to split Germany forever and always.
 

nbcman

Donor
I cannot agree:
NRW, Lower Saxony, Hamburg and S-H were fully in the UK OccZone, Rheinland-Pfalz and Saarland fully in the French zone, Bavaria, Bremen and Hesse fully in the American zone. Current BW is actually the only West German Land that straddlees a former OccZone border.

That is rather natural, since the Länder were created by the occupation authorities and redate the Federal Republic by years.
If Hesse was transferred fully to to French zone (northern part of OTL US OccZone) along with Rheinland-Pfalz and Saarland then the US could be compensated with the remainder of Baden and Wurttemberg plus Bavaria and Bremen for their OccZone.
 
If Hesse was transferred fully to to French zone (northern part of OTL US OccZone) along with Rheinland-Pfalz and Saarland then the US could be compensated with the remainder of Baden and Wurttemberg plus Bavaria and Bremen for their OccZone.

Having the US Zone not connect to the UK Zone is really unlikely.
Counter proposal: The UK gives up all of the Rhine Province to France. In compensation, it gets all of current Hesse, and the US gets Bavaria, Baden and Württemberg. Neater, more plausible borders.
But alas it still not changes the fact that a FRG made up of the British and French zones, with the US keeping its zone separate, is politically highly unlikely. Unless you assume a POTUS Henry Wallace who initially intends to let Southern Germany unite with the Soviet zone.
 
To answer the original question:
I can see Bavaria (iincluding the Palatinate), Württemberg and Baden staying outside the North German Federation for a long time, but being politically and economically closely associated.
To maintain this even two decades after 1867, we have to avoid the French-Prussian War of 1870. Actually, we have to avoid all wars in Central Europe.

In other words, keep this map for as long as possible.
d162de40cd4d09cb8714701c7e4c6cb7.jpg


So, no WW1 like OTL, and not the later conflicts.

What would happen? The Ottoman reign in Europe will still be fragile, and local rebellions will occur. Russia and the UK will quarrel over the Straits and other places. Austraia and Russia will quarrel over the Balkans. France and Italy will continue to quarrel over Papal Rome. France and the UK will probably quarrel over parts of Africa. Unlike OTL, an alliance between the NGF and France is actually possible.

Any OTL conflict might blow up far more than in OTL, or comparably less. If a French-North German War can be avoided, then the South German realms can remain independent in their shadow.
 
I like Redbeard's POD, which opens the way to a completely different endgame of the Napoleonic wars.
The problem is that in such a scenario Prussia will be even more strongly aligned to Russia, while Bavaria would be under the Austrian influence. The issues of the Palatinate and of Saxony are not going away: IOTL the Palatinate was given to Prussia with the aim to contain any future expansionistic ambition of France; who is going to get it ITTL? I would believe it to be too much to award to Bavaria, so it might end up in Prussian hands again by lack of suitable alternatives (it might be given to Austria, but in such a case the Austrian Netherlands would not change hands and the focus of Austrian strategy would be much more on Germany).

Otherwise the best chance to keep an independent Bavaria, Baden and Wurttenberg is to avoid the Franco-German war of 1870, which is not an easy thing to do (there was a war scare every year from 1867 to 1870): maybe the best way is to have the health of Louis Napoleon get worse quicker. If the emperor is confined to bed and there is a council of regency the likelihood of a war decreases a lot.
In this scenario, there might be again talks of a Southern German Confederation, which would be anyway much looser than the North German one. Anti-Prussian sentiment was still pretty strong in southern Germany, so Bavaria etc. might keep their independence even if they would still be tied to the NGC by a defence treaty and there would be growing economical ties with the more developed northern states. The problem here is that Bavaria does not have a lot of money, Austria cannot afford substantial investments and the only place which might provide loans is France.

Another possibility is for the war to come on schedule, but this time Sedan is avoided and the war ends sometimes in the autumn of 1870 like Bismarck wanted. The peace treaty is much more lenient, and does not requires land sacrifices. The Bonapartist regime totters on, and can end up either in the emperor hanging to power and passing the crown to his son or the regime being toppled in the 1870s and a new regime being set up (either a monarchy or more likely a republic). Bavaria etc. keep their independence as above.

I do not see many chances to Balkanize Germany after WW1 (the sentiment of belonging to Germany is strong after 50 years of empire, and the Entente does not have the political will to force the split up of Germany), and even less after WW2 (a divided Germany would not help much if the URSS invades, and the occupation cannot last forever).
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
If we go with no Franco- Prussian war we'd end up with Prussia still leading the North German Confederation, and Bavaria, Baden and Württemberg all being independent (but Hohenzollern being Prussian). Not sure how to avoid the Franco-Prussian war, and frankly the butterflies would be yuuge. But I think chances are good the three South German nations would still be independent if the war never happened.
 

Redbeard

Banned
I like Redbeard's POD, which opens the way to a completely different endgame of the Napoleonic wars.
The problem is that in such a scenario Prussia will be even more strongly aligned to Russia, while Bavaria would be under the Austrian influence. The issues of the Palatinate and of Saxony are not going away: IOTL the Palatinate was given to Prussia with the aim to contain any future expansionistic ambition of France; who is going to get it ITTL? I would believe it to be too much to award to Bavaria, so it might end up in Prussian hands again by lack of suitable alternatives (it might be given to Austria, but in such a case the Austrian Netherlands would not change hands and the focus of Austrian strategy would be much more on Germany).

Otherwise the best chance to keep an independent Bavaria, Baden and Wurttenberg is to avoid the Franco-German war of 1870, which is not an easy thing to do (there was a war scare every year from 1867 to 1870): maybe the best way is to have the health of Louis Napoleon get worse quicker. If the emperor is confined to bed and there is a council of regency the likelihood of a war decreases a lot.
In this scenario, there might be again talks of a Southern German Confederation, which would be anyway much looser than the North German one. Anti-Prussian sentiment was still pretty strong in southern Germany, so Bavaria etc. might keep their independence even if they would still be tied to the NGC by a defence treaty and there would be growing economical ties with the more developed northern states. The problem here is that Bavaria does not have a lot of money, Austria cannot afford substantial investments and the only place which might provide loans is France.

Another possibility is for the war to come on schedule, but this time Sedan is avoided and the war ends sometimes in the autumn of 1870 like Bismarck wanted. The peace treaty is much more lenient, and does not requires land sacrifices. The Bonapartist regime totters on, and can end up either in the emperor hanging to power and passing the crown to his son or the regime being toppled in the 1870s and a new regime being set up (either a monarchy or more likely a republic). Bavaria etc. keep their independence as above.

I do not see many chances to Balkanize Germany after WW1 (the sentiment of belonging to Germany is strong after 50 years of empire, and the Entente does not have the political will to force the split up of Germany), and even less after WW2 (a divided Germany would not help much if the URSS invades, and the occupation cannot last forever).

But wasn't most of Pfalz given to Bavaria after OTL 1815? Anyway, in a scenario where it is Bavaria (and Austria) that has ended the Napoleonic wars the OTL Prussian role of being the most effective German defence against France will have vanished and thus also the motivation to "award" Prussia teritory to give her strength. In OTL it was not at least Russia and UK that supported the Prussian cause, but their role in ending the Napoleonic wars has also dimished very much in this ATL. I actually doubt that Prussia will be allowed to dismember Saxony as in OTL. Austria, who has a much bigger role in this ATL, will not be interested in any German state too strong, which will also put a limit on much Bavaria can capitalise on her new position in the sunshine.

The Germany of first half 19th century probably will be even more conservative than in OTL and Austria with an ageing Metternich in command even more zealous to strangle any signs of emancipation. That might easily make the 1848 of this ATL much more volatile than the one of OTL. I still don't see any of the Great Powers wanting to support any of these Kleinbürger upstarts, but perhaps we would see a kind of German revolution ending in a German Republic uniting most or all of the German speaking areas?! We might even have Karl Marx and Frierich Engels in the government :evilsmile:
 
Let's say that after WW1 Germany collapses, with Prussia , Bavaria , Saxony, Baden , Thuringia, Wurttemberg and other states becoming independent. . Eventually most of Northern Germany save Mecklenburg and Saxony and Thuringia joins Prussia..
Hitler becomes a dictator in Bavaria, but no WW2
 
If we go with no Franco- Prussian war we'd end up with Prussia still leading the North German Confederation, and Bavaria, Baden and Württemberg all being independent (but Hohenzollern being Prussian). Not sure how to avoid the Franco-Prussian war, and frankly the butterflies would be yuuge. But I think chances are good the three South German nations would still be independent if the war never happened.

Brainstorming:
+ different Spanish Revolution and no Hohenzollern candidature
OR
+ the Empress pushes her husband towards military pressure on Italy, in order to keep Rome in papal hands.
OR
+ Bismarck falls ill for most of 1870 until the actrual crisis has blown over
 
Otherwise the best chance to keep an independent Bavaria, Baden and Wurttenberg is to avoid the Franco-German war of 1870, which is not an easy thing to do (there was a war scare every year from 1867 to 1870): maybe the best way is to have the health of Louis Napoleon get worse quicker. If the emperor is confined to bed and there is a council of regency the likelihood of a war decreases a lot.
In this scenario, there might be again talks of a Southern German Confederation, which would be anyway much looser than the North German one. Anti-Prussian sentiment was still pretty strong in southern Germany, so Bavaria etc. might keep their independence even if they would still be tied to the NGC by a defence treaty and there would be growing economical ties with the more developed northern states. The problem here is that Bavaria does not have a lot of money, Austria cannot afford substantial investments and the only place which might provide loans is France.

Without the Treaty of Frankfurt, there is no French reparation money to invest in German infrastructure. If OTOH, France invests directly in South Germany, the differences might be fascinating.

Internally, Bavaria would be in the same situation as Prussia in the North (ie bigger in population than all others combined), and King Ludwig would certainly love to be some kind of official president of a confederation. But I doubt that the other king and the grand dukes would accept that.
 
I did not say that there would be a "white peace treaty", just that there would not be any annexation of French territory. IMHO, Bismarck will have to walk a narrow line between his desire to preserve as much as possible the Bonapartist regime in France (the last thing he wants is a republic on the western border), the nationalistic pressure in Germany and the strong desire (to say the least) of the military to secure the Rhenish border (which was also a big drain on the treasury since Prussia had to keep troops in southern Germany). Not to mention that it will be difficult even for him to win a war and not punish the "aggressor". It will be a compromise: razing to the ground a couple of French fortresses, imposing a demilitarised zone on the Alsatian border and getting some reparations (much less than OTL, but then the cost of the war has been also much lower if he can manage to get a cease fire in September and a peace treaty by the end of November). There will be a lot of grumbling around, but Bismarck will be able to bring the troops home quickly, will have much less budgetary problems and will reinforce his image of mature and considerate politician in Europe. There may still be an imperial crown (of North Germany) for the king of Prussia, but it's not a given.

IMHO the NCG can push forward with its infrastructure building even without the massive reparations of OTL (the war has cost a lot less). French investment in southern Germany might certainly be very interesting and could open a lot of possibilities for the future. The French however will have to put their house in order first of all,and there will be some serious instability even if the empire survives; not to mention that building any serious infrastructure that would make easier for France to move troops into Southern Germany will not be very well received by the NCG (nor by Austria, whether the rapproachment with Prussia goes on in a way similar to OTL or not). The most likely outcome is that the NCG and France will play an influence war in the south; Austria's role will be dictated by its diplomatic outlook (friendship with NCG or France), and may change over time.

I do agree with your assessment of king Ludwig: there will be nor real Southern German Confederation, much less a Bavarian dominated one. The different states might very likely find themselves on different sides.
 
But wasn't most of Pfalz given to Bavaria after OTL 1815? Anyway, in a scenario where it is Bavaria (and Austria) that has ended the Napoleonic wars the OTL Prussian role of being the most effective German defence against France will have vanished and thus also the motivation to "award" Prussia teritory to give her strength. In OTL it was not at least Russia and UK that supported the Prussian cause, but their role in ending the Napoleonic wars has also dimished very much in this ATL. I actually doubt that Prussia will be allowed to dismember Saxony as in OTL. Austria, who has a much bigger role in this ATL, will not be interested in any German state too strong, which will also put a limit on much Bavaria can capitalise on her new position in the sunshine.

The Germany of first half 19th century probably will be even more conservative than in OTL and Austria with an ageing Metternich in command even more zealous to strangle any signs of emancipation. That might easily make the 1848 of this ATL much more volatile than the one of OTL. I still don't see any of the Great Powers wanting to support any of these Kleinbürger upstarts, but perhaps we would see a kind of German revolution ending in a German Republic uniting most or all of the German speaking areas?! We might even have Karl Marx and Frierich Engels in the government :evilsmile:

I may have expressed myself badly: by "Palatinate" I actually meant the northern portion of it and the Rheinland, i.e. what Prussia got in 1815. Bavaria will certainly get the Bavarian Palatinate as IOTL, and some other bits and pieces of real estate (in particular if Austria wants Salzburg), but I am not convinced they are getting a lion share along the Rhein. This makes things more complicated: Prussia has not the winning record of OTL, but they have certainly the Russian support; it seems that the former bishopics would go to Austria by default, but in such a case they would also be interested in keeping the Austrian Netherlands. The Netherlands proper need to receive some compensation for the colonies they lost to the English, even if it is not necessary for them to play a role of French containment if Austria holds the border. Incidentally, the kingdom of Sardinia did not play a real role in the Napoleonic wars, but they were still given the territory of the former republic of Genoa: it is still possible that OTL arrangement (Austrian Netherlands to the Netherlands and Rheinland to Prussia) will come to be.

I do agree that Germany will somehow more conservative in this ATL: it's also very likely that something similar to the Protocol of Olmutz will happen too, and Bavaria might be addedto the signatories. OTOH I would not expect a bloody 1848-equivalent in Germany, unless something very bad happens in the 1830s. Not only the social tensions are different from what prevailed in France, Italy or the Austrian empire, but the "bad example" of the Polish rebellion of 1830 will not be forgotten so easily. My bet is that it will be again a "revolution of professors", with a lot of speeches and tons of paper but little blood.
 
I did not say that there would be a "white peace treaty", just that there would not be any annexation of French territory. IMHO, Bismarck will have to walk a narrow line between his desire to preserve as much as possible the Bonapartist regime in France (the last thing he wants is a republic on the western border), the nationalistic pressure in Germany and the strong desire (to say the least) of the military to secure the Rhenish border (which was also a big drain on the treasury since Prussia had to keep troops in southern Germany). Not to mention that it will be difficult even for him to win a war and not punish the "aggressor". It will be a compromise: razing to the ground a couple of French fortresses, imposing a demilitarised zone on the Alsatian border and getting some reparations (much less than OTL, but then the cost of the war has been also much lower if he can manage to get a cease fire in September and a peace treaty by the end of November). There will be a lot of grumbling around, but Bismarck will be able to bring the troops home quickly, will have much less budgetary problems and will reinforce his image of mature and considerate politician in Europe. There may still be an imperial crown (of North Germany) for the king of Prussia, but it's not a given.

IMHO the NCG can push forward with its infrastructure building even without the massive reparations of OTL (the war has cost a lot less). French investment in southern Germany might certainly be very interesting and could open a lot of possibilities for the future. The French however will have to put their house in order first of all,and there will be some serious instability even if the empire survives; not to mention that building any serious infrastructure that would make easier for France to move troops into Southern Germany will not be very well received by the NCG (nor by Austria, whether the rapproachment with Prussia goes on in a way similar to OTL or not). The most likely outcome is that the NCG and France will play an influence war in the south; Austria's role will be dictated by its diplomatic outlook (friendship with NCG or France), and may change over time.

I do agree with your assessment of king Ludwig: there will be nor real Southern German Confederation, much less a Bavarian dominated one. The different states might very likely find themselves on different sides.

The "no Treaty of Frankfurt" was directed at the idea that there might be no Franco-Prussian War at all.
I fully agree how a more conciliatory peace after a far shorter war might look like.
IMO the imperial title for North Germany is not only not a given, I think it is even rather unlikely. Wilhelm I. was very reluctant in OTL as he feared that a populist imperial title would devalue the royal title of Prussia. And ina TL without the Kaiserbrief by Ludwig II., once the NGC is created wiout an imperial title, I don't see anyone in a position to convince W1 that it would be needed. Wilhelm II., on the other hand ...
 
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