Karl Peter Ulrich's War!

Valdemar II

Banned
There are a few elements with Galicia and Poland, the Polish king may keep from annexing Galicia, because he fear that it would strengthen the Noble estate. Right now I expect the Commowealth being split in five zones, where the king has to adopt different policies

Kingdom of Prussia: Here the king has absolut power, I expect it being used for experiments in reforms, likely we has seen many of the same reforms as we saw in Denmark in the same periode (universal education, land reform, removal of "serfhood").

Vistula Watershed/Poland proper: this is the next zone, here the king try to buy up non-crown estates, and set up the Briefadel. While some reforms are push through, serfhood are still going strong, simply because of the need of labour for the large estate, which produce the cereal, which are Polands main export. The urbanisation are mostly build on German immigrants, Jewish migrants and free Polish "low-nobles". The latter make up the petit bourgeois, while Jews are mostly common labours and artisans, and Germans go from journeymen to mechant princes. The reason for the royal focus on this area, are that the Vistula make export of the grain easy.

Grand Duchy of Lithuania: It's completely dominated by the magnates, little have changed in centuries, the king mostly leave them alone to run this country, against them staying out of the crowns business in the Vistula area. This state are also a hotbed of Polish Nationalism and Catholism (among the nobility), a growing anti-semitism push the Jews to migrate to towns and cities in Prussia and the Vistula watershed.

Duchy of Courland: It's much like Prussia, except few reforms are pushed through and the local Baltic German are left to run it as long as they pay their taxes.

Ukraine: This area are special, while the local nobles own vast estates, there are few brieladels and the crown own little land, there are a growing class of burghers and selfowning peasants. The latter are to large degree a result of westen immigrants, whom buy up land to establish agricultural hamlets/communes/colonies.

The annextion of Galicia, would mean that the king had to deal with a noble stronghold in the Vistula watershed, which are why he prefer a close and peacefull relationship with them. Beside most of their export goes through the Vistula, so he get as much money out of them outside the kingdom as he would inside without the troubles. Maybe in the future when the crowns grip are stronger he's going to annex them.
 
@Valdemar II:
Interesting analysis.
Your points on Prussia and Courland is also my perception though I guess I didn't make it that clear when writing the Danzig War part. But as explained recently that was the raison for making it a triple monarchy. So the King had one land in which he would be absolute.

This also make for some reasoning on why Poland-L-Pr hasn't yet gobbled up Galizia; another is the aftereffects of Tambora in which crown lands in Poland was adversely affected thus reducing the Kings resources. Of course what he does would be an efford to curtail the power of the magnates. Inviting another group of magnates wouldn't be the order of the day.
 

Valdemar II

Banned
I looked a little on population and by 1800 I would say the population was split as such.

Prussia: 1,5-2 millions
Vistula: 5 millions
Lithuania: 4 millions
Courland: 0,3 million
Ukraine: 2-3 millions

Galicia: 3 millions

All in all if it was unitarian state few states would be bigger. But even with the mostly only controlling Vistula and Prussia to any large degree, it's still a medium size power. Which I think are a important facto in the crown mostly leaving Lithuania to the magnates and leaving Ukraine to develop on it own. I imagine in the longer run we will see something like Austria-Hungary, with Lithuania taking the position of Hungary. Likely we also see Ukraine being given wide autonomy, while Vistula and Prussia will become more integrated.

Nationalism wise the Commonwealth are going to be interesting, the king are going to push a patriotic, loyalty to the state, multiethnic, multireligeous nationalism (think a mix between French and Swiss nationalism). The lack of universal education* outside Prussia and the multiethnic cities will likely help with this. The magnates on the other hand will push a blood and soil Polish speaking Catholic nationalism and they will do so in Lithuania, where Poles are the 3rd or 4th largest group (likely 3rd with the exodus of Jews to Vistula and Prussia). A interesting aspect in Lithuania was that Westen Belarussian and easten Polish was so close, that the defination on whom are whom was based whether they was Catholic or Othodox. So Polish language may spread in Belarussia and with the exodus of Jews we may see the towns become Polish speaking. Ukraine are likely to be weird likely most will just want to be left in peace, there are still room that distinct groups can live in peace with each others.

The Galicians are likely to not give shit, the local Magnates are Catholic but beside that a mix of Germans and Poles (mostly the latter), they rule their estates like small kings, and mostly push a export friendly anti custom policies. We will likely see little urbanisation and serfhood may last until the last year of the 19th century. More or less Galicia are just rump version of OTL Poland-Lithuania but without any neghbour wishing to carve them up.

Immigrants I will put in several categories.

"Oldenburgers": this are mostly a mix of North Germans and Danes from the Oldenburg possesions, through likely we will see some Hanoveans among. They are mostly mechants and set them self as the middleclass in the towns and cities. The new Polish Briefadel mostly comes from these. They bring with them capital but also new agricultural technics, their lingua franca are Low German and they are mostly Lutherans. They mostly set themself up in Vistula and Prussia. The fact that Denmark and Poland use same briefadel system likely mean that they recognise each others titles, this mean that many "Danes" invest in the cheaper soil in Poland to get a title. The result are major influx of capital and the adoption of the latest agricultural methods in Poland

Farmers: This are poor Germans, Dutch and Czechs whom move east to get cheap land, they mostly set up small agricultural colonies, where they can live in peace from the state. They are both Protestant and Lutherans, use all the different German dialects and mostly settle in Ukraine. They have little influence except that they help develop the low populated east.

Jews: These are mostly migrants from Lithuania, which leave for greater tolerance and oppotunity. Mostly they end up as urban labours and artisans are a important facto in the urbanisation and industrialisation of Vistula. They are Yiddish speakers.

I imagine with these people living in the towns together with native poles, we will likely see pidgin develop based on Low German with heavy Yiddish, High German and Polish influence and smaller Danish. This may develop into a full urban creole after a generation or two.

*Mostly because we will likely see universal education in the cities, while the more homogene serfhood doesn't get inspiration from outside. This would likely not be viable many places, but the fact that the Jews serve as a source of cheap urban labour rather than Poles make this somewhat viable.
 
First... i must say kudos for the continued efforts...

i had forgotten about this and have just managed to catch up

But there are several errors and inaccuracies that probably need addressing or at least some fleshing out...

1/. the Bimbia trading post is probably out of the question without some revisions... the whole coast between the Niger and Ogooue were claimed by Spain by earlier treaty with their neighbours the Portuguese. The whole coast would be the economic hinterland of their colony on Fernando Po and it would most definitely injure their trade interests, even if they were small. They would see the Danish-Norwegian intrusion in the same light as the French protestants attempts in the Carolinas and act accordingly. You need to find a n accomodation or their will be war even undeclared. The Spanish with more manpower and maritime resources and a colony on location would prevail. They probably have the Portuguese as allies lest the Danish - Norwegians start looking to interlope on their territories to the south of the Ogooue. After the Napoleonic wars the Spanish and Portuguese declined to the point that they were not in a position to defend these claims even if they were so inclined. Prior to though and through the entirety of the 18th C they would be more than capable of doing so. Spain while in the twilight of its power is still a first rank power. D-N no matter how much you wank them is still in the second tier because of its limited manpower resources prior to the 19th C..

2/.. The Slaver war is a reach to the point of being ASB for several reasons...

African slavery was outlawed in the Empire in 1715 outside of Cuba and Puerto Rico precisely because they had to open the trade to the British.

Even then the trade was held to a trickle such that there were few if any saves in the islands. until of course 1762 when the British gained Havana and landed nearly 10,000 during the course their occupation. bringing the bulk of the Slaves to the island.

Spain did not per se participate in the trade itself...Slaves were brought by British and Portuguese merchantmen.

Unless there is a concensus or adoption of a resolution by the concert of powers in Europe to ban or otherwise limit the trade any moves towards Anti- slavery patrols and seizures of cargos by the D-N is simply piracy against lawful commerce. Something that every maritime state would have an interest in preventing as it would set an awful precedent, that would include of course the USA as well. D-N no matter how you word the treaty with Britain, would have no allies.

Besides, with such a minor even non-existent interest in the trade.. the Spanish are not going to go to war over one lowly merchantman engaging in a practice supporting an activity that they have all but outlawed. the far more serious issue would be freedom of the seas and lawful commerce... and the Spanish will not act unless they have the support of other maritime powers if they are to be at war with Britain as well.

3/... On the North American continent...there are no US settlers west of the Mississippi if their is no purchase. the only reason there was OTL In the Missouri/St. Louis area was because the LP had occurred and it was in the fortunate position of being at the crossroads of the 3 most important rivers and the natural centre of trade and settlement beyond the Appalachians.

Here this will not be. There will be handfuls of American traders, businessmen and trappers and probably a few adventurers, all of whom have mutual interests with their Spanish or French Creole partners and associates and thats it. Settlement will still be concentrated in the old North west in the Ohio valley and to a lesser extent the Mississippi terr. Where the native populations are still a considerable hindrence and the primary concern of the US populations of the Western states and territories.

many of these natives, depending on your point of view, are still officially or unofficially supported by the British. There are almost certainly unofficial and cordial contacts between the British in U.C and the the Shawnee led confederacy of Tenkswatawa ( the prophet) and brother of Tecumseh ( Actually not sure the name is right for Tecumseh's brother, the prophet has a correct spelling but the get the gist.

The only possible aim would be the city of New Orleans and securing the Western trade...they have absolutely no interest in adding more terr. filled with Spaniards, and French Creoles and a whole lot more natives, when they haven't dealt with the ones they already have problems with.
Napoleon may have been willing to sell the territory precisely because without Haiti they could not adequately defend it. This would not be the case with the Spanish... they have assets in the area that can be mobilized and will give ground only grudgingly. They can pretty much limit any American gains that may result to N.O and the right bank and stick there heels in and threaten them with making concessions to the Brits and D-N to gain a separate peace. In all honesty, under those auspices and as you have stated your course of events, the European allies have absolutely no interest in allowing the johnny-come lately's in the USA to aggrandize themselves to any significant effect... effectively on their coat tails.

Again, I will need to re read some parts because I may have missed something of import trying to catch up. OTL The British and Spanish never came to blows over the pacific NW because they both had the common interest of acting in concert to contain revolutionary France... that is something you will have to be mindful of as well if you want all these partners on the same side during the First coalition as well.

But those are the few things I can see that glaringly stick out currently as highly improbable
 
So it looks like the Oldenburg kings managed to do something that Sobieski failed to do. He wanted to got to war with Brandenburg to grab Prussia but the nobility feared that he would make it his own estate and gain too much power for their liking.
The strategy of Oldenburg kings reminds me the strategy of capetian kings of France: they step by step annexed the lands of counts and dukes and established royal administration and laws over them.
So I see this as quite wise move of king. Though probably there is much shouting in Warsaw now: Przyłącz Małopolskę! Przyłącz Lwów! (Regain Lesser Poland! Regain Lvov!).
King Fryderyk can count on new educated elites from Collegium Nobilium - the School for Nobles which were founded in 1740. This school produced modern patriots and supporters of reforms which in OTL were introduced by Stanisław August Poniatowski and in the end lost in partitions.
I'm trying to figure why the Jews would leave Lithuania. They originally settled in Poland and later in Commonwealth because the were always protected by kings and the magnates. They were useful because they maintained trade and loans which nobles avoided to make as it was regarded unhonorable for them and they would never mutiny. I think that they were also useful as a competition for burghers and this was probably one of the reason that in PLC there were many little towns and only a few large cities. I can only see a reason that in Lithuania the Familia and other magnate parties begun to industrialize their estates and form a new class of burghers dependent to them, to be able to counter a growing power and influence of the court.
The strategy of kings court can have one more advantage: the homogenization of the measures in the king's domain. Before the time of French Revolution every province of every country had it's own system of measures and weigths. Only Great Britain managed to establish Imperial System which was used universally in whole realm. Later the same was slowly introduced by absolutis monarchies but in the end the state measures lost with the metric system. But this was in OTL. In TTL there was no revolution and radical metric reform. So probably the uniformization trend is much slower.
I think that some persons in kings court mourn over lost chance: Poland could gobble Brandenburg before German Unification and grab Silesia with it's natural resources. But this would be too much strain put on reforming kingdom.
 
@Valdemar II and Mefisto:
I really never wanted to go into so much detail on P-L-P, I like painting with a broad brush!

Though I might from time to time go into some detail to clarify stuff or substantiate actions.

@AuroraBorealis:
Thanks. Actually I just got some inspiration regarding North America where I had been beached earlier.

I'll look into your comments; actually regarding Bimbia I had Spain cede Fernando Poo to D-N 1809 as a result of the Slave War.

The Slave War may have to have a look at...

About North American events; a couple of our North Americans were quite active during the earlier writing and as I understood it there was US citizens seeping into Louisiana pre-purchase as you also point to!

BTW Napoleon isn't able to sell the Louisiana ITTL as he isn't born and France never gets it back from Spain.
 
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]1818[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]As the effects of the Tambora eruption seems to wear off in Europe King Frederick William of Brandenburg has his troops invade Franconia only to be countered by King Maximilian Joseph of Pfalz. Both tried to talk Elector William, Chancellor of the Empire into supporting financially by promise of land but William declined both offers.[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Some minor German princes and King Wiliam of Württemberg allow their countries a written constitution. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]The constitutions is hailed by the German students but the war in Franconia denounced. The armed might of Germany should be used to unite all Germans in the Empire of the German Nation.[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Sweden begin preparations for war on Russia in alliance with the Ottoman Empire. Denmark-Norway however warn Sweden from entering on the course of destruction as essentially no one is going to finance the expedition and the recent crisis of Tambora is still felt in Europe and must be so too in Sweden. Also the possibility of being cut off from cereals from Livonia or Poland-Lithuania-Prussia is a major reason for Denmark-Norway to talk Sweden out of going to war.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]It is felt in Sweden too and is a major bar to the Swedish preparations.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]In the end practical obstacles like lack of resources and finances – even if state economy is doing quite well Sweden decide against the venture and calls off the war much to the resentment of the Porte. The enmity against Denmark-Norway is strong.[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]The chaotic situation in Afghanistan where tribal rebellions have overthrown the Shah makes for Persian invasion to suppress the rebellions that might spread into neighbouring countries such as Persia! Herat is captured in late autumn. [/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Britain subdue the last Princely States in India gaining control directly or by proxy of all of the Sub-Continent.[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]A Russian expedition crosses the Bering Strait to Alaska reclaiming the colony for Russia. The local Hudson Bay Company are surprised at this turn of events but tries to make the best of it. At the moment the Russians are few and have to rely on the experiences of the HBC.[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]The novel Frankenstein by Mary Shelley is published and is an immediate success. [/FONT]
 
@Valdemar II and Mefisto:
I really never wanted to go into so much detail on P-L-P, I like painting with a broad brush!

Though I might from time to time go into some detail to clarify stuff or substantiate actions.

@AuroraBorealis:
Thanks. Actually I just got some inspiration regarding North America where I had been beached earlier.

I'll look into your comments; actually regarding Bimbia I had Spain cede Fernando Poo to D-N 1809 as a result of the Slave War.

The Slave War may have to have a look at...

About North American events; a couple of our North Americans were quite active during the earlier writing and as I understood it there was US citizens seeping into Louisiana pre-purchase as you also point to!

BTW Napoleon isn't able to sell the Louisiana ITTL as he isn't born and France never gets it back from Spain.

The American settler s only settled because the terr. belonged to the US.. without a purchase of terr. there won't be any... and any "seepage" will be small scale traders and trappers, not settlers.

As to Napoleon, that was simple a reference to reinforce the fact that the TL's are different and so would the defensive and diplomatic strategies be.
 
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