Karelo-Finnish SSR not merged into RSFSF

From 1940 to 1956, the Karelo-Finnish SSR was a constituent republic of the Soviet Union, on par with (amongst others) the Ukrainian SSR, the Russian SFSR and the Turkmen SSR. What if it's wasn't reintegrated in the RFSFR as an ASSR in 1956, and remained an union republic until the collapse of the Soviet Union?

While I'm sure that it would've changed much in the grand scheme of things, and certainly not until the aforementioned collapse, I'm still curious about the possible outcome of this for Karelia?
Given that the majority of its inhabitants are ethnic Russians (73,6% in 1989, with only 10% declared Karelians and 2,7% Finns), would a 'serious' nationalist movement have emerged? Or would Karelia gain its independence 'allmost by surprise' when the Soviet Union was disbanded? Or would it end up as part of the Russian Federation, albeit with a special status?
If it became independent, would it evolve into a second Belarus, or would it follow the Baltic path towards the European Union (but with less anti-Russian resentment)? I presume that, whatever may be the case, it wouldn't suddenly become massively 'culturally re-Finnicized', although a slight revival of Karelian/Finnish culture is likely. Likewise, because of the demographic composition, an East German style union with Finnland seems unlikely.
 
Hrm. Moldova and Belarus combined, but without the good bits.

You'd get a spindly little government of Karelians, which would be overthrown and replaced by a backwards little regime desperately pining for Soviet Restoration. Incorporation into Russia within 20 years is fairly likely. Alternatively, you could see the idea gaining traction of a new russian peoples federation comprising Russia, Karelia, Belarus, and Ukraine. Even in OTL as little as four years ago there was a bare Ukrainian majority supportive of such a move. It's the invasion of Georgia that's seemed to finally kill off that line thinking.

Honestly though, the republic was always intended to be temporary. It was created with the expectation that it would form the nucleus of the new Finnish SSR. When, of course, the Winter War failed to pan out, it had passed usefulness.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
There would anyway be almost no Finns left, mostly Russians, some Karelians and Vesps, a cople of Tatars. Would most likely merge with Russia.
 
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