Kaliningrad declares independence in the 90s

SwampTiger

Banned
Like most of the board members, Poland and Lithuania have no great interest in this event. The population is majority Russian.

Baltylisk is Russia's only ice-free port on the Baltic. They will be opposed to independence. Expect an aggressive reaction.
 
Like most of the board members, Poland and Lithuania have no great interest in this event. The population is majority Russian.

Baltylisk is Russia's only ice-free port on the Baltic. They will be opposed to independence. Expect an aggressive reaction.

Poland and Lithuania would not like a Russian military movement on their borders. Indeed and to avoid comparisons with Chechnya, as that old thread said, for NATO, there is a world of difference between a Russian military movement in the Caucasus and one in the Baltic.
 
Russia wouldn't accept that and I doubt that most of Kaliningraders would like idea too. It is totally linguistically Russian speaking.
 
Fuck yeah, more City-States!

I wholeheartedly support this independence movement!

FREEEEEEEEDOOOOOOM!!

No idea how to make this happen tho - you need the military onside, or for it to leave.
 
Like most of the board members, Poland and Lithuania have no great interest in this event. The population is majority Russian.

Baltylisk is Russia's only ice-free port on the Baltic. They will be opposed to independence. Expect an aggressive reaction.

Who gives a Weimar Reichsmark about what Poland and Lithuania think?

I would wholeheartedly support this movement just to see the Germans anguish and squirm over what to do.
 
Russia wouldn't accept that and I doubt that most of Kaliningraders would like idea too. It is totally linguistically Russian speaking.

The Russia of the 90s had a lot of economic problems. Maybe the Kaliningraders could be convinced, that, they would be better off economically as independent.
 
The Russia of the 90s had a lot of economic problems. Maybe the Kaliningraders could be convinced, that, they would be better off economically as independent.


An independantist movement motivated only by (temporary) economic downturn would lack the strength necessary to succeed, by a long shot.

Russia will crack down on it hard. Nobody will think about indépendantism after that.

Now if they somehow have western support, that could be interesting, by who would risk that?
 
An independantist movement motivated only by (temporary) economic downturn would lack the strength necessary to succeed, by a long shot.

Russia will crack down on it hard. Nobody will think about indépendantism after that.

Now if they somehow have western support, that could be interesting, by who would risk that?

NATO would certainly secretly favour the independence of Kaliningrad, that represents a security problem.
 
NATO would certainly secretly favour the independence of Kaliningrad, that represents a security problem.
NATO would like the idea of an independent Kaliningrad, but the instability and intemperate Russian response would terrify them. I think they are more likely to try to broker a reconciliation than wholeheartedly back independence.
 
Even if geographically isolated, it's still to Russian for independence to be seriously entertained.

You probably need an earlier POD wherein the Soviets decide to populate it with something other than Russians (Prussian SSR?) or structure their policies in such a way that it ends up with a far less homogeneous population. In which case it bailing to try its hand at being a fourth Baltic Tiger is entirely possible if not even the most likely outcome.
 
Even if geographically isolated, it's still to Russian for independence to be seriously entertained.

You probably need an earlier POD wherein the Soviets decide to populate it with something other than Russians (Prussian SSR?) or structure their policies in such a way that it ends up with a far less homogeneous population. In which case it bailing to try its hand at being a fourth Baltic Tiger is entirely possible if not even the most likely outcome.

What if the Lithuanians accepted Khruschev's offer to administer Kaliningrad and in the 90s Kaliningrad did the same as Transnistria?
 
Why would Kaliningraders, mostly Russian in origin and overwhelmingly Russophone, want to break away from Russia?

I suppose a separatist bid is plausible in the case of a catastrophic failure of the Russian Federation, making independence seem like the best option to Kaliningraders. In that case, I doubt Russia would be able to respond. I also think Kaliningrad's neighbours will have more to deal with than Kaliningrad's independence in this case.
 
In the case of a Lithuanian Kaliningrad, well, Lithuania will share in the ethnic issues of Latvia and Estonia now. This will be complicated by the fact that Kaliningrad's territory was never part of independent interwar Lithuania.
 
Why would Kaliningraders, mostly Russian in origin and overwhelmingly Russophone, want to break away from Russia?

I suppose a separatist bid is plausible in the case of a catastrophic failure of the Russian Federation, making independence seem like the best option to Kaliningraders. In that case, I doubt Russia would be able to respond. I also think Kaliningrad's neighbours will have more to deal with than Kaliningrad's independence in this case.

The thread, that, I linked to mentioned, that, the governor of Kaliningrad threatened to secede from the Russian Federation amidst Yeltsin's cries for people to take as much liberty as they wanted.

In the case of a Lithuanian Kaliningrad, well, Lithuania will share in the ethnic issues of Latvia and Estonia now. This will be complicated by the fact that Kaliningrad's territory was never part of independent interwar Lithuania.

In such a timeline, Kaliningrad may secede from Lithuania like Transnistria did from Moldova.
 
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