You forget if America goes Syndicalist. If Reed wins the Civil War and unites the US - bonus points if Canada gets added - then the Internationale can definitely beat Germany.
Whoever gets America, wins.
You mean the American stuck in a slow-moving civil war? One that unless player controlled generally finished well into 1940? I think the record you can get with the US is finishing the war by early 1939 and with the quality of HOI4 AI, I hesitate to call that a truly realistic outcome.
With the 2nd ACW America is well and truly irrelevant in the grand scheme of WK2
The Internationale actually are about even with the Reichspakt.
In Game sure, In reality, Hell No
The Commune is on its own in a slightly less than even matchup against Germany. Germany has the better starting position but is also racked by internal issues, its puppet revolting, the need to keep an army on the Russian border and the general economic collapse its just emerging from
In game sure the Commune is only somewhat inferior to Germany in reality not in any way shape or form is France without her Empire a contender for European top-dog the Commune on its own is shell of nation gutted by WWI the Civil and ensuing revolution has seen most of her experienced and general staff jump ship to North Africa while also devastating her industries and her population. OTL France held some 4.2% of global warm capability by 1937 in comparison German held 14.4. In the KRTL with a victorious Kaiserreich, that gap would be even larger. Even more still without her colonial empire to draw men from she will face a massive numerical disadvantage.
Germany, on the other hand, can count on the near-certain support of Austria who doesn't want to see a Red Europe any more than Germany does and has the advantage of fortified defensive lines on the Western Front allowing it to siphon off troops to face the east which wouldn;'t even be close to OTLs USSR.
Dreadnoughts and trench warfare, when the Commune (and UOB) is investing in Fast Battleships, Submarines and Carriers.
The Italians are a weakpoint but their true utility is their navy, which combined with the southern french fleet can match the Mittelmeerflotte.
First of all, submarines don't matter because Germany doesn't have any SLOCs worth interdicting that can be effectively interdicted the only one I can think off involved the route up the Seu and from there to either Austrian Greek or Ukrainian ports all of this is likely to be covered from German land-based air based in the Suez or through Southern Italy.
2nd of all the ships numbers in KR are quite frankly completely and utterly unrealistic and I mostly discount for the simple reason that no one in the world save for the US could afford what ships they have and Congress would nix the idea of the USN building up that big of a fleet.
But for argument's sake lets go with in-game numbers
The Mittelmeer Flotte as of 1936 starts with
- 3 Light Carriers
Two Mainz and Rhein belong to the Mainz class which can be presumed to represent a 1st generation carrier ala, HMS Hermes, while the Third Peter Strasser is a Maas class carrier built off of the lessons of the 1st two we don't have any particular RL counterparts as she is a light carrier and not a true fleet carrier design but he closeted OTL counterpart would be the Independence class so lets go with that.
- 4 WWI Era BBs
3 Bayern and one Konig class vessel
- 3 Fast BB
The Prinz Adalbert which resembles an H-39 type design and 3 Yorck class vessels which are effectively enlarged and improved Mackensens
- 1 BC
The Furst Bismarck a Mackensen class vessel
- 1 Heavy BB
The Deutschland basically a German equivalent of the N3
Facing them we have the Frech Mediterranean Fleet which is
- 1 Fast BB
The Lyon which I'm pegging as a French G3 Equivalent
- 8 WWI Era BB
5 Normandie class effectively French answers to the QEs. One Bretagne a french Orion equivalent, and 2 Courbet a french 1st Gen Dreadnought design
- 2 Predreds which I'm not counting because they're useless
The Red Italian Navy brings to table another 3 WWI Era Dreads which are Italian answers to the QE but were designed to make 28 knots so lets put them as "Fast" so in total 4 Fast BB and 8 WWI era BB vs 3 Fast BB, 1 HBB, 4 WWI Era BB, 1 BC, and 3 CVL seems like a slight overmatch for the Reds
But if we're bringing foreign navies into the table then
The other French Navy has
- 2 Fast BB
- 4 WWI Era BB
- 5 Battlecruisers? Large Cruisers? Effectively Dunkerque/ Alaska equivalents so I'm putting them as a BC
and I cannot be bothered to look up the numbers of the Two Sicilies and the Papal States but I remember the Papal Staes having another BB and the Two Sicilies having two more which brings the total to
4 Fast BB and 8 WWI Era BB for the Reds vs 5 Fast BB, 8 WWI era BB, 1 Heavy BB, 5 BC, and 3 CVL
So 12 Biggun ships to 19 yeah even with in-game numbers the Syndies are outmatched in the Med and I'm not even counting German detachments in East Africa which brings another 4 Capital Ships or one in West Africa which brings another 5 or the Austrian Navy which has another 7 WWI era Dreads
The UOB on the other hand is the only faction in europe besides Germany with a truly strong navy, a carrier focused on at that which can defeat the Hochseeflotte almost without issue when combined with the northern french fleet.
Uh huh I was not aware the HSF will be sorting without air cover from Land bases in Northern Germany, and Denmark nor that the Northern French fleet which has a grand total of two fast battleships will be of much help to the British Navy when facing the Canadian Navy to the West and the Germans to the east or the fact that 1939 carrier aircraft where still far from strike aircraft of 1944 or even 41 and even in 1944 Aircraft still lacked the raw stopping power necessary to full stop a naval battlegroup.
The Internationale's true utility however, is its ability to disrupt the reichspakt overseas.
In mostly useless battlegrounds?
Is locked into a civil war against 3 other factions has what is one the most anti syndie states in the world bordering it
Is a bunch of peasants in Patagonia which let's be honest stand no chance against the Argentine army
threatens nothing particularly vital to the German War effort in Europe
Doesn't matter to Europe and its Wang Jingwei's BTW
is kinda irrelevant to the war effort
potential allies in Brazil,
Is exceedingly unlikely
Does what to benefit the 3rd Int?
Is both A: Affected by an attempted counter-coup and if that fails following revolt and B: Does not do much of anything to comprise the German position in Europe
Requires a number of unlikely events and circumstances and needs to not to die to the Heer
Needs not to die to Germany and Austria and are low probability events
Is something that is unlikely and generally commits suicide via Sweden
Is crushed by Germany because France never intervenes to save them
Is crushed by Germany
This happens like once in a blue moon
Not particurly likely
Across the Atlantic and doesn't do anything to help the 3rd Int because of the German colonial possessions sitting on its SLOC to Europe
Locked into a civil war with the Republicans against the Kingdom and then has to beat the Republicans and the CNT-FAI is kinda insane according to what I heard from the Spain dev. That's the rework material anyway
Doesn't particularly matter and is a bit distracted with Argentina
The Internationale cannot defeat the Reichspakt on one front so they fight it on many fronts.
On many irrelevant fronts? Or supporting doomed revolts?
The Russians meanwhile explicitly have the opportunity to gain back territory while Germany recovers from Black monday, and its only after that point that fighting Germany becomes feasible. Especially if say... another Weltkrieg were to break out?
they can gain Central Asia and the Don Kuban is about their realistic extent Germany will step in if Russia goes for Azerbaijan and Georgia (Totalist Georgia is dumb and I refuse to acknowledge its existence). They may for Transamaur only if they want to pick a fight with the Japanese. Russia is completely utterly gutted by the treaty of B-L and is a very far cry from the industrial capability of the USSR.
The role of the Entente in all this is to act as potential tipping point in favour of the Germans. The Nat-French fleet and Sardinian fleet can tip the balance off in the Med. Canada can do the same in the North Sea whilst Portugal can act as a landing zone into europe proper. Austria is essentially the same, though it too can be caught up in side conflicts with the Belgrade Pact.
In a game sure. In reality, the only purpose of the Entente is to serve as an Empire in exiles club. Austria and Germany will fight together to avert a Syndie Europe the Belgrade pact is near impotent against
"Who" should win, is determined by the chess game the various factions are playing in the leadup to the second weltkrieg, over areas such as America.
Who should win is determined by the economic and military ability of their respective nations and their possible allies. OTL by 1937 the British and French Empires were equals of Germany that were with them winning the war. By KRTLs 1936 after losing the war, losing their empires, and losing their positions in the international economy means that they will be weaker, not stronger because losing wars does not make you stronger. Considering Germanies dominant position in the world it stands likely that Germanies share of that same war-making capability is likely closer to 20-30% instead of 14% while Russia, Britain, and France are comparably weaker. The British Armed Forces would have been gutted by the revolution following the departure of most of the officers and experienced personnel. Italy meanwhile is Italy but with only 1/3 of Italy which is an amazing combination.
Russia is not particularly better off. The treaty of B-L gutted the countries industry and agriculture, the 2nd RCW did not do it any favors and by 1936 the country isn't particularly in good shape. If she goes to war her armies will be little better equipped than the one that fought in 1914 lacking the industrial capability to sustain a large armored corp or an airforce while also facing the German army which thanks to its fortification on the Western front can afford to divert much of its attention to the russians
the 3rd Internationale Can't win a short war and it can't win a long war. Germany is far too strong and there are far to many people opposed to the Syndies