Kaiserreich a TL

[MichaelWest]

NLP becomes the Empire version of Today germans FDP liberals, While FVP is liberals wing of socialist.

That is about how I see it. I leave the FVP independent as a coalition partner to SPD, it strays on issues, economic one that its liberal middle/upper class voters prefer, but favors the liberal social agenda of the left generally. I am pondering having NLP absorbed by the Conservatives or my CDU the new "big tent" Centre-right party uniting the Christian, conservative, and middle-class, but that is somewhere out in the late 1940s to 1950s era.

My Reichstag is still multi-party dominated, the little ones sapping off strength so I am looking at various "reforms" that would be used to push votes into the bigger parties but keep proportional as I think it was the way Germany does democracy. Are you running the Chancellor as a British style PM, rooted in the elected party in power or does it look more like an executive almost Presidential office under the Emperor with "advice and consent" of Reichstag? I chose this hybrid as I think the Chancellor was never designed to be a PM as the British think of it. I also want to toy with the Bundestag as the states in Imperial Germany were not Lander, they were far more independent minded and would demand more say in things after being dragged to war by Prussia. I ponder if it looks more like the US Senate, equal votes for the States? But a narrow band of powers, including the power to declare war?

I struggle with Austria, in my mind the A-H Empire had more life to it but I think it struggles with unity, I prefer to keep it going since no one seems to take that challenge and I think pan-Germanism was not favored by the German elite, especially Prussia. To be different I think my Anschluss happens in the 1950s, here Germany struggles with a break-up in the same era as the Prague Spring.

 

[Michel Van]

i run into problem with USA entry into WW1

I want to delay the Declaration of War by US government, original Congress voted to declare war on Germany on April 6, 1917.
current TL has follow situation:
the German embassy's commercial attaché, Heinrich Albert, not lose his briefcase on a train to New York, who was snatched by secret service in OTL.
Irland in civil war with British since easter 1916, thank large weapon shipment of Germany
The Zimmermann Telegram Affaire is label by German Empire as "Fake News", what let to Diplomatic dispute between USA and Britain
Germans figure out there codes are hacked and delay the unrestricted submarine warfare to 1918.

Now my questions are:
how influential are the Irish-American Catholics in 1917 USA ?
for them it would interest that war continue without USA involvement binding the British forces in West front.
also how influential are the pacifist and neutralist movement ?

Could they impinge congress & senate that vote to declare war on Germany end in stalemate ?

 

[MichaelWest]

i run into problem with USA entry into WW1

I want to delay the Declaration of War by US government, original Congress voted to declare war on Germany on April 6, 1917.
current TL has follow situation:
the German embassy's commercial attaché, Heinrich Albert, not lose his briefcase on a train to New York, who was snatched by secret service in OTL.
Irland in civil war with British since easter 1916, thank large weapon shipment of Germany
The Zimmermann Telegram Affaire is label by German Empire as "Fake News", what let to Diplomatic dispute between USA and Britain
Germans figure out there codes are hacked and delay the unrestricted submarine warfare to 1918.

Now my questions are:
how influential are the Irish-American Catholics in 1917 USA ?
for them it would interest that war continue without USA involvement binding the British forces in West front.
also how influential are the pacifist and neutralist movement ?

Could they impinge congress & senate that vote to declare war on Germany end in stalemate ?

Now I have a broad choice of scenarios to alter the course of things, but I think the easiest one to ponder for this would be to replace Wilson. Wilson played a mean game, he envied and despised the British Empire, Germany was the rival, industrially, naval, merchant shipping, etc., to dethrone the Germans moved the USA into position to topple the real enemy. When I put Champ Clark into the White House I think we see no kowtowing to British soft embargo tactics and a firm commitment to let Europe burn on its own. Combined that should have Germany be less belligerent versus the USA overall and without McAdoo you likely see the stock market crash as the Anglo-French assets are withdrawn wholesale. It takes little imagination to see how Wall Street blames them for the recession and sentiments shift away from the British even more. The USA has deep sympathy for the French but I think the Irish and German communities put a strong bias against Britain that only opens as London liquidates, pressures American and neutral trade, seizes German colonies, etc. Without Wilson I think you get an America unlikely to intervene and far more aggressive in opposing the blockade. Add in some evidence that British ships are false flying American flags, that passenger ships are loaded with munitions, have Ireland explode, these things only push America towards apathy for Britain. Consider that there would be no stupid moves by Germany to sabotage or interdict American ships, no offer to Mexico as Clark would not have intervened and the situation is entirely different in Mexico, etc. This is my "slightest" change to leave WWI play out as a full European war.

 

[insanegorey]

This a TL were German Empire win World War I and how it evolve in coming years
But before i start to write it here, i want to make here preliminary studies to get the bugs outs.
I hope this Synopsis is usable base for this TL or what you think ?


Synopsis:

With Pod in 1917 get Germany chance to win, but it's a Pyrrhic victory
in east they can only create Free Poland and Kurland, but Russian get under control of bolsheviks.
in West they gain Belgium & Luxemburg and defeat France
But remain in a Cold war between British Empire and USA (both have there Problems)
To make matter worst the German Allies Austria-hungary and Ottoman Empire collapse
During WW1 dies certain Hitler, Göring and Hess

The Germans parts of former Austria-hungary get incorporated into German Empire
Belgium move little bit to west and get Federalized, while province of Liege become part of Prussia
Luxemburg is now part of Empire.
On colonies Germany lost allot, but gain new one from France and Belgium
And are able to form a Mini "Mittleaftika" and a new Pacific colony.
new nation in East Europe and in Middle east

1920s-1930s
There will be a world economic crisis like OTL
France becomes a anti-Semitic Communist state, allot of Jews fled to Belgium or German Empire
like Marcel Bloch (OTL Marcel Dassault)
in USSR Leo Trotsky become leader, because Stalin died during Russian Civil war
The French and Soviets make secret arrangement for rearmament for attacking The German Empire
Spanish Civil war who rise the tension between Europeans states and USSR
what end in German support victory for the Royalist junta under General Emilio Mola.
in Europe face rise of Communist (revolution export by Trotsky)
National China formed, with close ties to German Empire as Allies
LZ129 Hindenburg Disaster, German Navy abandon the Airship in favor of Airplane
normalization of relations between Germany, USA and Britain

1940s
1941 - WW2 start during funeral of Emperor Wilhelm II
France and USSR attack German Empire
While Japan attack Pearl harbor and conquer Asia and part Pacific (Some german Colonies)
USA, Britain, China and Germany become allies (the Enemy of my enemies is my friend).
introduction of new technology like Jetplane and Atomic bomb (Germany) and Rocket (France)
After heavy fighting the Germans can push French out west Germany and Belgium
And Soviets out of Poland, German Army marching into USSR and France
1946 - Germany manage to gain there objectives, by dropping series of atomic bombs.
Empire of Japan, People Republic France and Soviet Union surrender or are destroy.
USA and Britain are shocked by the brutality of German use of Atomic power
National China consolidated under Chiang Kai-shek
new nations of Ukraine, Baltic states and Russian.

1950s-1960s
Morgentau Plan for de militarization and de industrialization of France and west Russia
Second Cold war USA and Britain form a alliance against German Empire
1949 USA-Britain alliance test there atomic bomb
R&D race for best Bomber, best jet-fighter, best ICBM, let to Space Race
Werner Von Braun developed out french rocket hardware the First German ICBM
later moon rocket label Saturn used in Moon race.
German "quantum leap" in technology like Computers and consumer electronics

1970s-1980s
Social changes in German Empire.
Economic crisis
French extremist start War of Terror against German Empire
Cold War get more intense as USA-Britan try to keep up with German High tech.
Uprise in colonies and decolonization.

1990s-2010s
End of Cold War, Happy end or new conflicts ?

IMO (obviously) the only way the USA would avoid entering a war in europe would be if the conflict seemed to dangerous to enter, or if there was simply not enough time to react to the situation. The thought of a cold war between USA/UK vs. Germany is strange unless the Germans succeeded in defeating the French while the mutinies were happening in 1917. Even then, the success would need to be quick, in order for the USA to not intercede and maintain a D&C tactic. It seems unlikely for Trotsky to take power, primarily considering that I don't lend credence to the "great man" theory in history that only specific figures can fill certain roles. If you "kill" Hitler, someone else, someone who feels disaffected and has aspirations for reclamation and greatness will take his place. Trotsky failed to take power in the soviet union after Lenin's health rapidly declined because Trotsky took no initiative to push for party control. The guy didn't even show up to Lenin's funeral, but do you know who did?

It is also worth noting the foreign policy of the USSR after the (somewhat) stabilization of the civil war. They began to push and "reclaim" territories and new lands for the "glorious revolution", which only stopped OTL by the Miracle of the Vistula, wherein the nigh defeated Polish armies repelled the Soviet armies. Had Germany not fallen into military disrepair and geopolitical castration, then the Polish-Soviet war simply would not have happened, due to German interests primarily based around keeping neighbors weak to retain regional dominance. With no Polish-Soviet war, or perhaps any reorganization wars of the USSR, it is possible that the USSR may not have come into existence at all, and Russia may have turned into a more Constitutional Monarchy, after german re-intervention, since that politically remains more in line with the german political ideals, as opposed to a state that, OTL, executed royalty. Even with a USSR existing, its expansion would have avoided Europe until it found itself to be strong enough, which would likely be as late as 1934 or even 1942. Much of the later things referenced here I am not as informed about, but I think it stands to reason that if much of the stuff I mentioned here is true, then much of the stuff that goes on in this Kaiserreich TL would likely not happen.

 

[Michel Van]

IMO (obviously) the only way the USA would avoid entering a war in europe would be if the conflict seemed to dangerous to enter, or if there was simply not enough time to react to the situation. The thought of a cold war between USA/UK vs. Germany is strange unless the Germans succeeded in defeating the French while the mutinies were happening in 1917. Even then, the success would need to be quick, in order for the USA to not intercede and maintain a D&C tactic. It seems unlikely for Trotsky to take power, primarily considering that I don't lend credence to the "great man" theory in history that only specific figures can fill certain roles. If you "kill" Hitler, someone else, someone who feels disaffected and has aspirations for reclamation and greatness will take his place. Trotsky failed to take power in the soviet union after Lenin's health rapidly declined because Trotsky took no initiative to push for party control. The guy didn't even show up to Lenin's funeral, but do you know who did?

It is also worth noting the foreign policy of the USSR after the (somewhat) stabilization of the civil war. They began to push and "reclaim" territories and new lands for the "glorious revolution", which only stopped OTL by the Miracle of the Vistula, wherein the nigh defeated Polish armies repelled the Soviet armies. Had Germany not fallen into military disrepair and geopolitical castration, then the Polish-Soviet war simply would not have happened, due to German interests primarily based around keeping neighbors weak to retain regional dominance. With no Polish-Soviet war, or perhaps any reorganization wars of the USSR, it is possible that the USSR may not have come into existence at all, and Russia may have turned into a more Constitutional Monarchy, after german re-intervention, since that politically remains more in line with the german political ideals, as opposed to a state that, OTL, executed royalty. Even with a USSR existing, its expansion would have avoided Europe until it found itself to be strong enough, which would likely be as late as 1934 or even 1942. Much of the later things referenced here I am not as informed about, but I think it stands to reason that if much of the stuff I mentioned here is true, then much of the stuff that goes on in this Kaiserreich TL would likely not happen.

On Stalin, he get killed during russia Civil war and the "someone else" is Trotsky, he has different agenda, but is a ruthless and unscrupulous leader who would sacrifice million people if he get to his goal.
That idea are based on this video.

On Timing, USA declare war on Germany on April 6, 1917. But Germany can hit France frontline in full force at begin autumn 1917. that's 5 to 4 month.
i could tweak the decision with The Zimmermann Telegram Affaire, were A secret order to German Ambassador in USA was intercepted by British and it content given to Capitol Hill
Were Minister Zimmermann gave order to Ambassador to ask Mexico government to join German cause and declare War to USA !
Here the German realized there code are decipher and take tactic "this Telegram is fraud by British" and delay the unrestricted submarine warfare, mention in Telegram.
A ruse the Americans will believe ?

i forgot a wild card in this case Theodore Roosevelt Jr.
In March 1917, Congress gave Roosevelt the authority to raise a maximum of four divisions similar to the Rough Riders,
However, President Wilson announced to the press that he would not send Roosevelt and his volunteers to France, but instead would send an American Expeditionary Force under the command of General John J. Pershing.(source Wiki).
I wonder if Capitol Hill manage to send the Roosevelt volunteer instead of AEF as compromise to please President Wilson but keep supporting neutrality of USA ?

Final option: the 1918 flu pandemic one year earlier in US ?

 

[Michel Van]

Looking true Information i found this video
about What if Ataturk Never Existed?

It would solve several problems for My TL like how Bulgaria conquer west Turkey and Istanbul
the POD for Kaiserreich is that Mustafa Kemal Pascha (Ataturk) died combat in 1915 during Gallipoli Campaign

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Looking true Information i found this video
about What if Ataturk Never Existed?

It would solve several problems for My TL like how Bulgaria conquer west Turkey and Istanbul
the POD for Kaiserreich is that Mustafa Kemal Pascha (Ataturk) died combat in 1915 during Gallipoli Campaign

For Germany a Ottoman collapse would be problematic considering especially how that'd encourage Britain to fight on, since they'd still be winning. I mean the Ottoman fronts pretty much collapsed all over at the end of the war, but a complete fall of the Sublime Porte would make it hard for Germany to convince London that their empire is in any danger.

 

[MichaelWest]

I am not a fan of the knee jerk collapse of either the A-H or OE in any CPs stalemate to "victory" scenario, I understand the weaknesses but to have them fall to pieces feels too deterministic. If the Entente can conquer the OE and dismember it I am hard pressed to see how this is still a win for Germany. Have you looked at the scenario of the Greeks sinking the Ottoman battleship and invading the Gallipoli peninsula? I would offer that in a war where the British stand aside because Germany eschews violating Belgian neutrality, for example beginning in 1913 over Albania, but widens over this separate event to pull the British in could get you a "sort of" war inside the war with Greece versus the Ottomans but Germany bolstering her and Britain intervening. That is complicated enough to have the OE destroyed yet Germany emerging "victorious."

 

[BNSF1995]

This timeline looks a lot like the Hearts of Iron mod of the same name.

That mod is awesome.

 

[MichaelWest]

On Stalin, he get killed during russia Civil war and the "someone else" is Trotsky, he has different agenda, but is a ruthless and unscrupulous leader who would sacrifice million people if he get to his goal.
That idea are based on this video.

On Timing, USA declare war on Germany on April 6, 1917. But Germany can hit France frontline in full force at begin autumn 1917. that's 5 to 4 month.
i could tweak the decision with The Zimmermann Telegram Affaire, were A secret order to German Ambassador in USA was intercepted by British and it content given to Capitol Hill
Were Minister Zimmermann gave order to Ambassador to ask Mexico government to join German cause and declare War to USA !
Here the German realized there code are decipher and take tactic "this Telegram is fraud by British" and delay the unrestricted submarine warfare, mention in Telegram.
A ruse the Americans will believe ?

i forgot a wild card in this case Theodore Roosevelt Jr.
In March 1917, Congress gave Roosevelt the authority to raise a maximum of four divisions similar to the Rough Riders,
However, President Wilson announced to the press that he would not send Roosevelt and his volunteers to France, but instead would send an American Expeditionary Force under the command of General John J. Pershing.(source Wiki).
I wonder if Capitol Hill manage to send the Roosevelt volunteer instead of AEF as compromise to please President Wilson but keep supporting neutrality of USA ?

Final option: the 1918 flu pandemic one year earlier in US ?

Why not just have smarter heads quash the Zimmerman non-sense or if Germany is doing better avoid such an obviously belligerent move?

And I think without Stalin the Communists might still seize power but the party soon fragments. Stalin was the able organizer and ruthless unifier once Lenin got sick and then died. I think Stalin is the one to keep the Communists in power, without him I would argue the revolution is subject to greatly changing within the following ten to twenty years.

 

[Michel Van]

The Zimmermann Telegram Affaire was one of Stupidest thing in Politic i ever see
Foreign minister Zimmermann WITHOUT authorization of Emperor or High Command
Send Telegram to embassy of Mexico with proposal that Mexico government join the Axes and declare War to US
The British intelligence intercept the Message decode it and hand it over to White House
To make matter worst as US Journalist in Germany, interview Zimmermann about that case, he freely admitting this !!!

i really considering the pull that Affair out TL, (It never Happen pod) and go another way in delaying the USA entering WW1.

I am not a fan of the knee jerk collapse of either the A-H or OE in any CPs stalemate to "victory" scenario, I understand the weaknesses but to have them fall to pieces feels too deterministic.

it almost ABS level magic needed to prevent this, the A-H and OE collapse so fast, that ruling politicians could't react on it.
in case of OE i go a step further in TL

For Germany a Ottoman collapse would be problematic considering especially how that'd encourage Britain to fight on, since they'd still be winning. I mean the Ottoman fronts pretty much collapsed all over at the end of the war, but a complete fall of the Sublime Porte would make it hard for Germany to convince London that their empire is in any danger.

According Wiki and German Literature, after German offensives in spring 1918, the British Government was thinking on withdrawal BEF from the West Front...

 

[yourworstnightmare]

According Wiki and German Literature, after German offensives in spring 1918, the British Government was thinking on withdrawal BEF from the West Front...

And where do you think they'll redeploy those men.... yes the Ottoman front. And if Britain knocks the Ottomans out, they'll be much less likely to agree to any german peace offers anytime fast withthe theorethical Middle East threats towards their Empire neutralized. Which is why Germany would send men to the Middle East to save the Ottomans once they've won in the West. If they want to present themselves as a threat to Britain and can't do it at sea, the Middle East is their only arena.

 

[MichaelWest]

The closest I can get to having OTL war go as it began, the assassination, July Crisis, ultimatum, blank check, violation of Belgium, and expansion of the war to include the OE, yet weaken the Entente and sideline the USA is to eliminate Woodrow Wilson. I have two alternatives, the less complex is to have Champ Clark run and win, the more complex is to have TR run 1908 to 1912, Taft follows with a narrower victory in 1912, the British and French collapse the financial markets as they liquidate, no McAdoo intervention, more antipathy towards the Entente, and f you can sustain it have the Germans be less brutal towards Belgium, at least have the Kaiser condemn the offending officers and apologize, keep the war focused and let the Kaiser show more leadership. I think you get a war that is stalling by 1916 just as the Entente truly run out of money and Germany is exhausted, but neither side is beaten, Russia still goes to revolution, Germany can declare victory and the Anglo-French accept the peace that is unfair but not punitive, the British get out lighter than France who must bow own to get the Germans to evacuate territory. This is one of the few ends that get the German colonies restored so we can have a spaceport of East Africa. Here the USA stays neutral but still leans pro-French, slightly less effective blockade, japan likely still on track to become the enemy in the East, etc. I have Russia end up like Weimar. You choose how France reacts, right-wing anger or left-wing revolution. The Customs Union cements German dominance but moderates its actions. At least for several decades the Germans are the continental peer to the surviving British global power, the USA lurks in the wings as the biggest economy with potential for more and Russia has the long term potential to become the next biggest powerhouse. An uneven multi-polar world. This is my notion of it, steal, borrow or reject things as you wish.

 

[Michel Van]

Your have a Point, MichaelWest
This "tweaking" is better as that "Almost ABS" scenario i imagine for 1917.

sideline the USA is to eliminate Woodrow Wilson

Interesting are The problems he had during 1914-1917 Mexico revolution, Pancho Villa raid of Columbus killing americans, the Ludlow Massacre on Miners in Colorado, Death of Wilson Wife.

The Perfect POD is that US president William Howard Taft become reelected in 1912
means John Flammang Schrank is more successful in killing Roosevelt
since i have POD about Chiang Kai-shek goes to Berlin Military Academy is in 1906.

keep the war focused and let the Kaiser show more leadership

only problem Wilhelm II was NOT a military genius and needed Generals for planing, and those generals were neither military wizzes...

i started to write prolog to "Kaiserreich A TL"
with two above events are Post
including third post, were in 1910 the Eiffel Tower is demolished until 1912.

 

[MichaelWest]

Your have a Point, MichaelWest
This "tweaking" is better as that "Almost ABS" scenario i imagine for 1917.


Interesting are The problems he had during 1914-1917 Mexico revolution, Pancho Villa raid of Columbus killing americans, the Ludlow Massacre on Miners in Colorado, Death of Wilson Wife.

The Perfect POD is that US president William Howard Taft become reelected in 1912
means John Flammang Schrank is more successful in killing Roosevelt
since i have POD about Chiang Kai-shek goes to Berlin Military Academy is in 1906.



only problem Wilhelm II was NOT a military genius and needed Generals for planing, and those generals were neither military wizzes...

i started to write prolog to "Kaiserreich A TL"
with two above events are Post
including third post, were in 1910 the Eiffel Tower is demolished until 1912.

My understanding is that Taft during his Presidency had utterly refused to intervene in Mexico and that Champ Clark was not likely to, Wilson chose to send troops and get involved. I think this betrays who Wilson actually was, he was very much interested in growing American power, he was ambitious to see American take a place at the global power table and the easiest one to pick up was Germany once it got into the war, in fact Germany was the stepping stone towards parity with and eventually superiority to the British Empire. I think this is what gets glossed over and obscured, Wilson was in the parlance of the times a warmonger. He gets us the interventions all over the Americas, the Dollar diplomacy push, the big fleet expansion in 1916, designed to square us with the RN not defend us from the HSF, and so forth. Even Wilson's supposed strict neutrality was a farce, it was weighted to give the Entente all it needed while asset striping them, his game was Machiavellian. I would argue that either Taft or Clark would be less likely to intervene in the Great War, would likely not have sought a 1916 USN expansion, acted less aggressively in Mexico and avoided Haiti etc. Our neutrality might have been genuine enough to avoid Germany acting as aggressively against us seeing us as an opportunity rather than an enemy in waiting. And a genuine peace mediation might have been the crowning achievement of an American President.

As to the Kaiser, I think you need him to simply act more like an Emperor and less like a puppet, ave him choose honor above expediency and quash the invasion of Belgium, after all the King is distantly related and his wife of German nobility, have him at least admonish the Army for its mistreatment of civilians and excessive violence in Belgium, he does not need to be a military thinker, after all that is why the German Chief of Staff and Staff system evolved, but let him step up to assert his royal authority to set policy. Maybe that too is near ASB but then we are changing the backdrop to the war and that might alter his mercurial dance between ideas.

This war will still be a hard one for Germany with no real opportunity for clear victory or worthwhile gains, the notion of victory in my mind is simply not being defeated. For me at most I think France gets reparations and might lose the iron ore, a sliver of land to bolster A-L, but I suspect France can fight strong enough to forestall even that combined with British pressure. If France loses territory it will be some colonial dirt that augments German colonies, and I am not talking of Indochina or anything actually worthwhile, more a reverse of how German colonial lines shifted to add to existing British and French and Belgian possessions. I think Britain offers to simply vacate the German colonies and oddly would support putting the pacific back into her hands as a block to the USA. Italy gets nothing and goes on to be a scorned woman mistrusted by all. Russia loses the most, thus my "vision" is that it shapes up to be the Weimar Republic of this ATL, reactionary right, monarchists, social-democrats vaguely in power, active left-agitation and sabotage of the weak democracy, economic ruin, discontent, all the tears in the society laid open. German and/or A-H held territory might emerge independent and healthier but it will be a generation of stumbling and leave the East with much acrimony for both of the CPs. The OE should survive and look a bit like Italy, an aggressive young class bent on reasserting itself and getting back what is lost. Japan is still on track to assert itself and the USA under Taft will e totally opposed, that would steer the USA to the Pacific even faster. But the USA will not be as rich, as dominate or on track to naval greatness, it will be the biggest single economy, a top-ten Navy, a power on the move in China affairs, prickly in the Americas but far from what it emerged as.

Ponder a better surviving Sterling zone and British power, a German dominated Customs Union focusing back to trade and industry, a possible Nordic customs union, a France with dreams of being a super power beaten out of it, a democratic and capitalist leaning Russia. A significantly different set of players for the future.

 

[MichaelWest]

And now for a wild card question. If this TL the war begins more visibly defensive, in other words Germany is not violating Belgium or the Russians declare war before Germany can, might we see less disunity for socialists in future? If voting for war credits is seen as a defense measure then the SPD is not betraying the international and the pacifist wing is weakened, allowing the SPD to emerge as both patriotic/loyal and international in connections to parties post-war in other countries. My thoughts are that the Bolsheviks do not come to power, there is no German revolt, mutiny maybe but no fall of the existing state, so a USPD might emerge as the dissenters but committed to democracy, the "Communists" splinter off but have no Soviet model or support. I suspect that Russia and Germany with France harbor the strongest socialist leaning governments and only revolutionary agitators, but those are like Lenin, voices from the outside, the SPD would join the reform elements to further curb the Emperor's powers and assert the Reichstag's authority to confer, ratify and fund, opening the door to the SPD to take power as the leading party. A socially democratic Germany under the veneer of its monarchy. This might open the door to greater European unity as the socialist parties work towards a fraternity of European states, allowing even reconciliation between France and Germany, Germany and Russia, etc. Here "red" Europe is totally unlike the usual Soviet trope, instead it looks like a mega-Sweden.

 

[Michel Van]

My understanding is that Taft during his Presidency had utterly refused to intervene in Mexico and that Champ Clark was not likely to, Wilson chose to send troops and get involved.

Taft will do same thing like Wilson: sending General Pershing and Troops into Mexico
you see Mexican Pancho Villa raided US town of Columbus killing 18 American citizen and Monroe Doctrine allowed such military reaction by US.

But Taft will stay out of the First Great War that escalate 1914, so long the Europeans not start to intervene in America like with the Zimmerman Telegram to Mexico...
i have to look into option for president from 1916 on to "tweaking" preventing USA entering into the First Great War.

As to the Kaiser, I think you need him to simply act more like an Emperor and less like a puppet,
ave him choose honor above expediency and quash the invasion of Belgium, after all the King is distantly related and his wife of German nobility

the problem is Military strategy the Germans envision 1905 "Schlieffen-Plan" as used 9 years later, it was outdated.

Source Wiki:
The 1905 drafted memorandum provided for the case of a two-front war, first to use the mass of the German army in the west against France,
with the north wing to bypass the French fortifications and to seize the French army in the back.
After a victory over France within a few weeks, the troops should be relocated to the east to fight against Russia.
General Schlieffen's intention was to divide the war against France and Russia into two successive campaigns.

to make matter worst Schlieffen's successor, Helmuth Johannes Ludwig von Moltke, (chosen by Kaiser for famous name "von Moltke", Helmuth Johannes Ludwig was NOT a Military Genius).
not gave any alternative to 1905 memorandum, in 1909 he overworked it, taking invasion of Netherlands out, to get more forces true Belgium to have lager frontline to attack France forces.
at 1913 the "Schlieffen-Plan" was only offensive plan the German Military Had !
In practice, the plan failed in 1914 because Russia make fast attack on German Empire and von Moltke had send troops from west front to East.

Irony von Moltke the elder, had made several offensive plans dealing with fast Russian offensive against German Empire, in 1913 von Moltke the younger dismiss those plans...

 

[Michel Van]

This Idea is really tempting...

The USA join the central power !

The Idea is that British Blockade of North sea hampers Neutral US trade with Europe what include German Empire
also that Neutral US merchant ships are intercepted and search by British war ships, like everyone else on Atlantic ocean.
Combine with Easter uprise and its brutal crush, The Irish American lobbyist demanding in Capitol hill to stop trade with British or even declare war on them.
Next to that have some US banks issue with Britain, over high loans the British took for financing the War "who is over in December 1914"
in 1917 some those US banks want to see there money back.

in scenario were Woodrow Wilson is not president, could be interesting with his replacement decide...

 

[MichaelWest]

This Idea is really tempting...

The USA join the central power !

The Idea is that British Blockade of North sea hampers Neutral US trade with Europe what include German Empire
also that Neutral US merchant ships are intercepted and search by British war ships, like everyone else on Atlantic ocean.
Combine with Easter uprise and its brutal crush, The Irish American lobbyist demanding in Capitol hill to stop trade with British or even declare war on them.
Next to that have some US banks issue with Britain, over high loans the British took for financing the War "who is over in December 1914"
in 1917 some those US banks want to see there money back.

in scenario were Woodrow Wilson is not president, could be interesting with his replacement decide...

I think removing Wilson changes the USA itself, and it changes how the USA reacts to the war. I would be hard pressed to see the USA enter on the side of the CPs, but I could see it defend its neutrality and more freely sell to Germany, defying the blockade and rendering the most useful weapon in British hands far less effective. In my thinking I have the London Declaration recognized as a better way to weaken the RN so Germany pursues it as a treaty, I think the British never agree and the US Congress fails to ratify, but in the war Germany obeys the London Declaration and the USA rediscovers it to become insulted by British starvation tactics. I have the sudden divestment by British and French interests crash the US markets and spark a recession that gets played as anti-British by the press and against that backdrop the sentiment remains sympathetic to France but not Britain. Add in the Irish issue and have Italy nuetral, the German/Italians/Irish minorities cannot flip the USA to the CPs but I think can derail any hope that the USA will enter the war against them after seriously weakening the support allowed for the Entente. I think the cash crisis hits the Anglo-French and gives Germany a stalemate in the West while Russia begins to break. A German victory? Not really but the CPs stand undefeated and are open to an armistice and negotiated peace. Then perhaps the German and American relationship is founded and grows.

 

[Michel Van]

MichaelWest, do you mean with "London Declaration"
The London Declaration concerning the Laws of Naval War of 1909 ?