Kaiser Heinrich

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Emperor Heinrich

Prinz Wilhelm was a tragic figure in retrospect. Born with a withered arm, seeing two of his three younger brothers die in childhood, and then dying himself before the promise of his youth could be realised. It was not atall uncommon for the expected heir to sadly pass away before the realisation of his glory - in Britain it would soon enough come about with Prince Albert Victor, Duke of Clarence & Avondale, leaving the main line of descent hanging upon his brother George, later to become George V. In Russia, early death had robbed the world of the Tsesarevitch Nikolai, who would have stood in place of his younger brother Aleksandr III as Tsar.

And of course, the main Hohenzollern line was not one immune to problems. Frederick William IV had gone slowly mad, old Kaiser Wilhelm I had often feared that such a course might claim him, but had escaped its reach, the meanwhile engaging in militarism as a means of governance. By the time of Wilhelm's death, his only son Friedrich was a near-invalid, laid low by throat cancer. His reign was short and far from sweet, but whereas the late lamented Wilhelm the younger may have been at odds with his father, the more taciturn and biddable Heinrich was keen to work together, and to assume as much of his father's legacy as he could.

Wilhelm had died in 1879, aged twenty and on the verge of a glorious manhood. Not for him the child-death of his brothers Sigismund and Waldemar, who had passed away aged two and ten respectively. Wilhelm, although weakened of constitution by the circumstances of his birth, had been a fighter and his death was felt the more keenly for it. Heinrich, three years his younger, had stepped into his shoes as eventual heir to the dynasty, an unproven lad moved quickly towards the destiny of the state. A grandson of Queen Victoria, through her eldest child, Victoria, Heinrich had married a first cousin, another grandchild of Victoria, in Irene of Hesse-Darmstadt, whose mother Alice had been another of Queen Victoria's daughters. Four years his junior, their union in 1888 had produced its first child in 1889, a young son named Frederick after Heinrich's father, and whom the ailing Frederick III considered himself honoured to have known before his untimely death (*1).

Ascending the throne as Kaiser Heinrich I, in the Prussian rather than German tradition, the twenty-seven year-old had set about working on and improving his father's legacy. Much had been begun but had remained undone due to the parlous circumstances of his father's health, and now Heinrich began to work the reforms through. It was a slow and deliberate policy, no swift changes, no sudden moves. The ageing Iron Chancellor, Bismarck, was allowed to see out the 1890s before retiring with great honour in his mid eighties, to see only a couple of years of rest before dying on the very cusp of the new century. (*2)

Kaiser Heinrich and Empress Irene would have another two sons, named Wilhelm after his late brother, and Heinrich after himself (*3). By 1900, Heinrich I could consider himself free of the legacy of the now late Bismarck, and of his more militant relatives, reflected especially in the line of his cousin Friedrich Karl. He was his own man, and he increasingly looked towards Britain as a model for how Germany should develop. The death of his grandmother, Queen Victoria, in the January of 1901 was hardly unexpected, but was another sign that the world was turning a page, entering into a new age with the new century. The funeral procession for his grandmother was as grand a coming together of European royalty as there ever was, and Kaiser Heinrich had a place of honour beside his uncle, Edward VII

The Boxer crisis in China gave Germany the opportunity to work together with other nations in dealing with dangerous natives, and Kaiser Heinrich's speech about bringing civilisation to the Chinamen, and how they would in time look back and see the barbarous nature of the current times, was well received from London to Washington DC, where President Roosevelt commented that the German emperor was "his kind of man". The campaign itself was a military success, the defeat and overthrow of the Dowager Empress a blow for progress, and the assumption of power by a cousin within the imperial dynasty, as Regent, a new start. Kaiser Heinrich was at the forefront of moves to support, rather than to undermine, this new regime, and his steadffast refusal to take advantage of China's weakness won him even more plaudits within the American state, an increasingly important nation in world affairs as the sleeping giant began to flex its muscles.

The outbreak of the Boer War, coming hard as it did upon the heels of the China Crisis, presented a turning point in Anglo-German relations, hitherto friendly and warm. Heinrich could not ignore the feelings of his countrymen that Britain was waging a campaign of extermination upon a gallant people whom they felt a racial affinity towards. Nor was his ignorant of the strong tensions existing between France and Britain at this time, in the shadow of Fashoda. Despite his familial ties to King Edward VII, Heinrich allowed himself to be used by the Reichstag to speak openly and witheringly against the tactics of Great Britain, especially after the introduction of concentration camps and scorched earth tactics by Kitchener and Roberts. In this, he found a common cause with France, and within the circles of European diplomacy Britain found herself increasingly isolated.

Whilst happy to see power increasingly flow into the hands of the Reichstag, Kaiser Heinrich was careful to ensure for himself the ultimate sanction in matters of foreign policy, military spending and, should it ever come to it, support for a declaration of war. He was as wary as his fellow monarchs and presidents of the rise of socialism, and whilst taking the late Bismarck's advice to work with the forces, but avoid the individuals, he was always conscious of how difficult a balancing act this could be.

The ultimate test came with the outbreak of the Russo-Japanese War in 1904. During the Boxer Crisis, Heinrich had observed that the two powers appeared set on a course of destructive rivalry, but his cousin, Nicholas II, had ignored all his warnings about the proven abilities of Japanese arms, something seen first hand by German commanders during that conflict. Russia appeared to be serene in its self-interest, and the surprise attack upon their fleet at Port Arthur was truly a bolt from the blue. Heinrich tempered the language of official statements out of Berlin, listening to that faction within the Reichstag which claimed that Tokyo was but an echo of Germany within the Far East. This was Japan's 1866, or 1870, they said, and the Kaiser was keen to maintain a balance of forces out there, looking to German interests within both China and Japan, and seeing Russia's aggressive moves towards Korea as a destabilising factor.

Whilst maintaining a cordial neutrality, Heinrich I refused permission for the Hamburg-Amerika Line to supply the Russian Baltic Fleet with coal, and though a battle squadron of the newest Russian battleships and cruisers did sail via the Suez Canal for the Far East they turned back upon reaching Indo-China and learning of the fall of Port Arthur to the Japanese. Kaiser Heinrich and President Roosevelt were close allies in forging a negotiated peace, and the Treaty of San Francisco was seen as a measured end to an unwanted conflict. (*4). Whilst internal tensions overflowed within Russia, they did not get out of hand, and an attempted mutiny aboard a battleship of the Black Sea Fleet was put down with a ruthless certainty. The Russian negotiators signed the treaty, and returned home in relative triumph, whilst Kaiser Heinrich stunned the world by announcing that he would conduct a state visit to the United States

Britain had found itself isolated during the conflict. A friend of Japan's, but not an official ally, it had also found itself looking to Russia as a balancing force within the region, especially after Franco-German success in installing a new regime in Peking at the end of the Boxer War, something which Britain had opposed, arguing instead for the retention of the Dowager Empress as being more easily biddable in defeat. The tensions of the Boer War had served to alienate London from the continental powers, and to bring together British and Russian interests in a theatre more removed from their usual scenes of nascent conflict within Central Asia. Lord Spencer's government had failed to make any mark on the international scene, and incapacitated by his being struck down with a stroke, had wallowed in crises until its eventual annihilation at the polls in 1910 at the hands of the Conservatives (*5)

By 1910 it was also clear that the German-American friendship was headed into the closer waters of a formal understanding, many said an alliance without using that name. President Theodore Roosevelt, ignoring the outdated concepts of George Washington's two-terms tradition, was returned for a third term, and sought to make an even greater mark upon the world than he had to date. In these efforts, Germany was his willing partner, and as a result German-American trade flourished, and in those areas of fierce competition, an equitable solution was found to mutual satisfaction. German-American interests began to drive the British from certain key markets within South America, and British isolation within the European continent became increasingly the main point of discussion at dinner parties across London and within the stately homes of the Tory opposition

Taking power in 1910, Prime Minister Lord Curzon (*6) promised to reverse this trend, and his foreign secretary, Andrew Bonar Law, began a series of continental journies disparaged by the Opposition as "Law's Pilgrimages' but which slowly began to win secondary powers to a British point of view. The Franco-German rapprochement had seriously undermined Russia's position, and Russia's defeat to Japan, albeit ameliorated in the peace treaty, had served to give notice upon the fragility of the Tsarist regime. Kaiser Heinrich I had little personal feeling for his cousin, the Tsar of Russia, even despite his Hessian wife, and accepted and worked with his Reichstag in promoting a more global view of Germany's position.

Instead, Britain began to look increasingly towards Austria-Hungary. Almost cast into civil war by disagreements over the renewal of the Ausgleich between the two elements of the monarchy, and thwarted in Bosnia-Herceogivina by a combination of German and American pressures, Vienna was looking to break free from the increasingly sore shackles of Berlin. Driven from Germany and from Italy by the events of the 1860s, the Habsburg monarchy had increasingly looked towards the Balkans as the source of its relevance. The overthrow of their allies in the Obrenovic dynasty within Serbia had been a blow, the thwarting of their Bosnian ambitions a stunning setback. Now, Vienna was looking to redefine itself before it was too late. It was no secret that Kaiser Franz Josef and his surviving heir, Franz Ferdinand, did not get on, but in this their two parties were united. Germany was driving the dynasty down, and only by striking out in a new direction could the Dual Monarchy survive.

The defeat of the Young Turk revolution of 1908 amounted no more than a momentary setback for the forces of revolutionary change within the Ottoman Empire. By 1912, reformed and energised by Russian and British support, they were ready for another attempt, and this time succeeded in driving Abdul Hamid from off his throne, and installing a weakened puppet as his successor. But in attempting to control and direct the Ottoman Empire, the British and Russians had unleashed forces which they could not control. Despite the best efforts of Law and Sazanov, working in close accord, the new regime in Istanbul proved to be unstable, and where there is instability there is quickly to be found conflict

Italy, alienated by Britain's courting of Austria-Hungary and keen to prove to Germany their worth as an ally, launched an attack upon Turish North African possessions within Tripolitania and Cyrenaica. With President Roosevelt giving vocal support to this quashing of an anachronism, and Berlin also seeing politicians mouthing words of progressiveness, Rome increased its commitment in the war, sending naval squadrons Eastwards to hunt down and destroy what served as the Ottoman Navy. The Curzon government in London found itself in the peculiar position of supporting Russia in backing the powers of a weakened Ottoman state against the aggressors. Vienna, ever aware of the growing threat of Italian ambitions in the South, also came out in favour of a swift negotiated settlement. But it was President Roosevelt's words to the contrary, and his sending of two battle squadrons of the Great White Fleet to the Mediterranean, which served as the true defining moment

By 1913 the Balkans were in uproar. Looking to Berlin and to Rome, the various monarchies advanced their ambitions by joining in a Balkan League against the unlucky Turk. In vain did Lord Curzon send a British fleet to the Eastern Mediterranean - supported by strong words from Belin and from Washington DC, the Italians knew that only a direct attack by the British could scupper their ambitions, and no such overt action was coming from London. In the hole that developed, Bulgaria seized Salonika, and Greek forces advanced upon Tirana. Serb and Montenegrin forces also crested the Adriatic, whilst Rumania, caught between German and Russian influence chose to remain neutral.

Retiring after an unprecedented three and a half terms, US President Roosevelt had given his support to Charles Evan Hughes, a senior diplomat within his administration, who won the 1912 race against the Democrat, Woodrow Wilson. Within the US, there was a strong feeling of why change horses in mid-stream. The German-American understanding was working well on the world stage, and TR continued to issue commentaries from the sidelines.

Italian difficulties before Tripoli were eased by American volunteers, and by preferential sales from German arms companies to the Italian government. Increasingly Vienna, in its cleaving to a British position, was looking isolated, but Franz Josef was playing a long game and in his alliance with Moscow and with Istanbul he was looking both for future relevance and for the survival of his dynasty.

By 1914 the Turks were in retreat everywhere, and while Russian and British advisors swarmed amidst their military, it was obvious to those in Istanbul that defeat was inevitable. Wholly unsupported from foreign allies, despite what British propagandists would say, a movement swelled up from the streets to overthrow the puppet Mehmed and to place the "crown prince" Yusef in his stead. This much-admired prince of the dynasty immediately set about engaging with Berlin and Washington and bringing about an end to the wars. The Treaty of Berlin showed the dominance that Kaiser Heinrich had achieved in European affairs, its heavy French element a reflection of how close the former foes in Berlin and Paris were working together.

Italy gained Tripolitania, Cyrenaica and the Dodecanese, courtesy of her navy's annihilation of the Ottoman fleet, such as it was. Bulgaria advanced South over Thrace, and over Salonika. Greece advanced North and annexed the bullk of Albania. Serbia made huge gains in Macedonia, whilst Montenegro achieved a coastline around Scutari in the Adriatic. The Treaty of Berlin threatened to wipe Turkey off the face of Europe, but London, Moscow and Vienna ensured that Eastern Thrace and the balance of the Aegean islands remained in the hands of the new sultan. Austria-Hungary also annexed Bosnia-Hercegovina, not without loud protests from Moscow, but to quiet approval from London

President Charles E Hughes visited Berlin in 1915 and though the formal appearances of president and emperor were cordial, the two men did not get on well in private. Hughes' lawyers' mind and Heinrich's slower, but surer, political acumen did not gel, and the Kaiser missed his good friend Roosevelt on a personal level. The departure of Hughes marked a new low in trans-Atlantic relations, and coming as it did upon Curzon's renewed vigour did not bode well for Berlin. For Curzon had won the battle within the Conservative party between himself and Law, and now replaced the latter with his Unionist ally, Edward Carson as Foreign Secretary. Reared on Irish politics, Carson proved to be a surprisingly able Foreign Secretary within Europe, and soon had Moscow and Vienna reconciled to each other. Furthermore, he visited Bucharest and Istanbul, and was able to convince both King Ferdinand and Sultan Yusef of Britain's friendly intentions

President Hughes, up for re-election and unsure of his German allies took retreat in building up the fleet that his predecessor had started. Accepting a new and radical design in the all-big-gun New York he unconsciously brought about a revolution in naval development. (*7). These "Yorkers" began a trend that was soon being emulated from Tokyo to Berlin, from London to Saint Petersburg, and many places in betweeen

1916 would be a year of many tensions, many decisions and many changes. It shall be Part 2 of this document, now.


Best Regards
Grey Wolf




Notes

*1 Without the stresses and conflict of dealing with Wilhelm during his short reign, I have given Frederick III another 6-9 months of life, probably much of it as an invalid, but enough for him to see his eldest male-to-male grandchild

*2 I gave Bismarck another 18 months or so of life, the driving factor being power and his hold on it invigorating him. Retiring in 1898 he lived almost to see 1900, but not quite.

*3 In OTL Heinrich's sons were Waldemar and Sigismund, the names of his late younger brothers, and Heinrich who died at the age of 4. Here, since he is heir to the throne, I have named his eldest Friedrich after his father, his heir-to-be next as emperor, Wilhelm after his elder brother, and the third as Heinrich after himself. None of them die young (comparable to Wilhelm II having six sons, all of whom lived healthily to adulthood)

*4 This peace would be similar to OTL's Treaty of Portsmouth, where Russia got far more advantageous terms than it would appear to have deserved. Here there has been no TsuShima, and less internal rebellion, but these mitigating factors simply make the harder-headed Americans keen on what were actually the OTL terms

*5 On the basis that butterflies start to play games of their own, I have gone with events of the 1890s leading to a stronger position for Spencer. He was Liberal leader in the Lords, but in OTL was struck down in 1905 by 2 strokes and appeared to be a joke when petititioning for the premiership in the following year. With these strokes happening later he would be at the height of his powers, if waning in years, and in the different circumstances of ATL 1905 elected to sort things out. That he cannot, and does not, is hardly a surprise within politics, not due to him personally, but because failure is as often the result as is success

*6 Following the tradition, here not destroyed, of the Lords leader having equal power with that of the party leader in the Commons, and the primacy being decided upon personality and internal politics. Here, Curzon can gather that more than Law can.

*7 1915-1916 is ten or so years later than OTL, but this is a world without Tirpitz, and where Fisher never rose to his OTL prominence. We probably had a decade of the "intermediaries", it being noted that TsuShima never happened and that mosty modern naval analyses would be drawn from actions such as the Yellow Sea, and from Italy's hunting down and destruction of the obselete Ottoman fleet
 

Germaniac

Donor
Very good, I love "Yorkers"! A less isolationist America could mean more trouble for Europe in any war which might happen in the future. Teddy would still be a MAJOR player with diplomacy and would keep his relationship with Heinrich in the post presidency years.
 
Emperor Heinrich

Prinz Wilhelm was a tragic figure in retrospect. Born with a withered arm, seeing two of his three younger brothers die in childhood, and then dying himself before the promise of his youth could be realised. It was not atall uncommon for the expected heir to sadly pass away before the realisation of his glory - in Britain it would soon enough come about with Prince Albert Victor, Duke of Clarence & Avondale, leaving the main line of descent hanging upon his brother George, later to become George V. In Russia, early death had robbed the world of the Tsesarevitch Nikolai, who would have stood in place of his younger brother Aleksandr III as Tsar.

And of course, the main Hohenzollern line was not one immune to problems. Frederick William IV had gone slowly mad, old Kaiser Wilhelm I had often feared that such a course might claim him, but had escaped its reach, the meanwhile engaging in militarism as a means of governance. By the time of Wilhelm's death, his only son Friedrich was a near-invalid, laid low by throat cancer. His reign was short and far from sweet, but whereas the late lamented Wilhelm the younger may have been at odds with his father, the more taciturn and biddable Heinrich was keen to work together, and to assume as much of his father's legacy as he could.

Wilhelm had died in 1879, aged twenty and on the verge of a glorious manhood. Not for him the child-death of his brothers Sigismund and Waldemar, who had passed away aged two and ten respectively. Wilhelm, although weakened of constitution by the circumstances of his birth, had been a fighter and his death was felt the more keenly for it. Heinrich, three years his younger, had stepped into his shoes as eventual heir to the dynasty, an unproven lad moved quickly towards the destiny of the state. A grandson of Queen Victoria, through her eldest child, Victoria, Heinrich had married a first cousin, another grandchild of Victoria, in Irene of Hesse-Darmstadt, whose mother Alice had been another of Queen Victoria's daughters. Four years his junior, their union in 1888 had produced its first child in 1889, a young son named Frederick after Heinrich's father, and whom the ailing Frederick III considered himself honoured to have known before his untimely death (*1).

Ascending the throne as Kaiser Heinrich I, in the Prussian rather than German tradition, the twenty-seven year-old had set about working on and improving his father's legacy. Much had been begun but had remained undone due to the parlous circumstances of his father's health, and now Heinrich began to work the reforms through. It was a slow and deliberate policy, no swift changes, no sudden moves. The ageing Iron Chancellor, Bismarck, was allowed to see out the 1890s before retiring with great honour in his mid eighties, to see only a couple of years of rest before dying on the very cusp of the new century. (*2)

Kaiser Heinrich and Empress Irene would have another two sons, named Wilhelm after his late brother, and Heinrich after himself (*3). By 1900, Heinrich I could consider himself free of the legacy of the now late Bismarck, and of his more militant relatives, reflected especially in the line of his cousin Friedrich Karl. He was his own man, and he increasingly looked towards Britain as a model for how Germany should develop. The death of his grandmother, Queen Victoria, in the January of 1901 was hardly unexpected, but was another sign that the world was turning a page, entering into a new age with the new century. The funeral procession for his grandmother was as grand a coming together of European royalty as there ever was, and Kaiser Heinrich had a place of honour beside his uncle, Edward VII

The Boxer crisis in China gave Germany the opportunity to work together with other nations in dealing with dangerous natives, and Kaiser Heinrich's speech about bringing civilisation to the Chinamen, and how they would in time look back and see the barbarous nature of the current times, was well received from London to Washington DC, where President Roosevelt commented that the German emperor was "his kind of man". The campaign itself was a military success, the defeat and overthrow of the Dowager Empress a blow for progress, and the assumption of power by a cousin within the imperial dynasty, as Regent, a new start. Kaiser Heinrich was at the forefront of moves to support, rather than to undermine, this new regime, and his steadffast refusal to take advantage of China's weakness won him even more plaudits within the American state, an increasingly important nation in world affairs as the sleeping giant began to flex its muscles.

The outbreak of the Boer War, coming hard as it did upon the heels of the China Crisis, presented a turning point in Anglo-German relations, hitherto friendly and warm. Heinrich could not ignore the feelings of his countrymen that Britain was waging a campaign of extermination upon a gallant people whom they felt a racial affinity towards. Nor was his ignorant of the strong tensions existing between France and Britain at this time, in the shadow of Fashoda. Despite his familial ties to King Edward VII, Heinrich allowed himself to be used by the Reichstag to speak openly and witheringly against the tactics of Great Britain, especially after the introduction of concentration camps and scorched earth tactics by Kitchener and Roberts. In this, he found a common cause with France, and within the circles of European diplomacy Britain found herself increasingly isolated.

Whilst happy to see power increasingly flow into the hands of the Reichstag, Kaiser Heinrich was careful to ensure for himself the ultimate sanction in matters of foreign policy, military spending and, should it ever come to it, support for a declaration of war. He was as wary as his fellow monarchs and presidents of the rise of socialism, and whilst taking the late Bismarck's advice to work with the forces, but avoid the individuals, he was always conscious of how difficult a balancing act this could be.

The ultimate test came with the outbreak of the Russo-Japanese War in 1904. During the Boxer Crisis, Heinrich had observed that the two powers appeared set on a course of destructive rivalry, but his cousin, Nicholas II, had ignored all his warnings about the proven abilities of Japanese arms, something seen first hand by German commanders during that conflict. Russia appeared to be serene in its self-interest, and the surprise attack upon their fleet at Port Arthur was truly a bolt from the blue. Heinrich tempered the language of official statements out of Berlin, listening to that faction within the Reichstag which claimed that Tokyo was but an echo of Germany within the Far East. This was Japan's 1866, or 1870, they said, and the Kaiser was keen to maintain a balance of forces out there, looking to German interests within both China and Japan, and seeing Russia's aggressive moves towards Korea as a destabilising factor.

Whilst maintaining a cordial neutrality, Heinrich I refused permission for the Hamburg-Amerika Line to supply the Russian Baltic Fleet with coal, and though a battle squadron of the newest Russian battleships and cruisers did sail via the Suez Canal for the Far East they turned back upon reaching Indo-China and learning of the fall of Port Arthur to the Japanese. Kaiser Heinrich and President Roosevelt were close allies in forging a negotiated peace, and the Treaty of San Francisco was seen as a measured end to an unwanted conflict. (*4). Whilst internal tensions overflowed within Russia, they did not get out of hand, and an attempted mutiny aboard a battleship of the Black Sea Fleet was put down with a ruthless certainty. The Russian negotiators signed the treaty, and returned home in relative triumph, whilst Kaiser Heinrich stunned the world by announcing that he would conduct a state visit to the United States

Britain had found itself isolated during the conflict. A friend of Japan's, but not an official ally, it had also found itself looking to Russia as a balancing force within the region, especially after Franco-German success in installing a new regime in Peking at the end of the Boxer War, something which Britain had opposed, arguing instead for the retention of the Dowager Empress as being more easily biddable in defeat. The tensions of the Boer War had served to alienate London from the continental powers, and to bring together British and Russian interests in a theatre more removed from their usual scenes of nascent conflict within Central Asia. Lord Spencer's government had failed to make any mark on the international scene, and incapacitated by his being struck down with a stroke, had wallowed in crises until its eventual annihilation at the polls in 1910 at the hands of the Conservatives (*5)

By 1910 it was also clear that the German-American friendship was headed into the closer waters of a formal understanding, many said an alliance without using that name. President Theodore Roosevelt, ignoring the outdated concepts of George Washington's two-terms tradition, was returned for a third term, and sought to make an even greater mark upon the world than he had to date. In these efforts, Germany was his willing partner, and as a result German-American trade flourished, and in those areas of fierce competition, an equitable solution was found to mutual satisfaction. German-American interests began to drive the British from certain key markets within South America, and British isolation within the European continent became increasingly the main point of discussion at dinner parties across London and within the stately homes of the Tory opposition

Taking power in 1910, Prime Minister Lord Curzon (*6) promised to reverse this trend, and his foreign secretary, Andrew Bonar Law, began a series of continental journies disparaged by the Opposition as "Law's Pilgrimages' but which slowly began to win secondary powers to a British point of view. The Franco-German rapprochement had seriously undermined Russia's position, and Russia's defeat to Japan, albeit ameliorated in the peace treaty, had served to give notice upon the fragility of the Tsarist regime. Kaiser Heinrich I had little personal feeling for his cousin, the Tsar of Russia, even despite his Hessian wife, and accepted and worked with his Reichstag in promoting a more global view of Germany's position.

Instead, Britain began to look increasingly towards Austria-Hungary. Almost cast into civil war by disagreements over the renewal of the Ausgleich between the two elements of the monarchy, and thwarted in Bosnia-Herceogivina by a combination of German and American pressures, Vienna was looking to break free from the increasingly sore shackles of Berlin. Driven from Germany and from Italy by the events of the 1860s, the Habsburg monarchy had increasingly looked towards the Balkans as the source of its relevance. The overthrow of their allies in the Obrenovic dynasty within Serbia had been a blow, the thwarting of their Bosnian ambitions a stunning setback. Now, Vienna was looking to redefine itself before it was too late. It was no secret that Kaiser Franz Josef and his surviving heir, Franz Ferdinand, did not get on, but in this their two parties were united. Germany was driving the dynasty down, and only by striking out in a new direction could the Dual Monarchy survive.

The defeat of the Young Turk revolution of 1908 amounted no more than a momentary setback for the forces of revolutionary change within the Ottoman Empire. By 1912, reformed and energised by Russian and British support, they were ready for another attempt, and this time succeeded in driving Abdul Hamid from off his throne, and installing a weakened puppet as his successor. But in attempting to control and direct the Ottoman Empire, the British and Russians had unleashed forces which they could not control. Despite the best efforts of Law and Sazanov, working in close accord, the new regime in Istanbul proved to be unstable, and where there is instability there is quickly to be found conflict

Italy, alienated by Britain's courting of Austria-Hungary and keen to prove to Germany their worth as an ally, launched an attack upon Turish North African possessions within Tripolitania and Cyrenaica. With President Roosevelt giving vocal support to this quashing of an anachronism, and Berlin also seeing politicians mouthing words of progressiveness, Rome increased its commitment in the war, sending naval squadrons Eastwards to hunt down and destroy what served as the Ottoman Navy. The Curzon government in London found itself in the peculiar position of supporting Russia in backing the powers of a weakened Ottoman state against the aggressors. Vienna, ever aware of the growing threat of Italian ambitions in the South, also came out in favour of a swift negotiated settlement. But it was President Roosevelt's words to the contrary, and his sending of two battle squadrons of the Great White Fleet to the Mediterranean, which served as the true defining moment

By 1913 the Balkans were in uproar. Looking to Berlin and to Rome, the various monarchies advanced their ambitions by joining in a Balkan League against the unlucky Turk. In vain did Lord Curzon send a British fleet to the Eastern Mediterranean - supported by strong words from Belin and from Washington DC, the Italians knew that only a direct attack by the British could scupper their ambitions, and no such overt action was coming from London. In the hole that developed, Bulgaria seized Salonika, and Greek forces advanced upon Tirana. Serb and Montenegrin forces also crested the Adriatic, whilst Rumania, caught between German and Russian influence chose to remain neutral.

Retiring after an unprecedented three and a half terms, US President Roosevelt had given his support to Charles Evan Hughes, a senior diplomat within his administration, who won the 1912 race against the Democrat, Woodrow Wilson. Within the US, there was a strong feeling of why change horses in mid-stream. The German-American understanding was working well on the world stage, and TR continued to issue commentaries from the sidelines.

Italian difficulties before Tripoli were eased by American volunteers, and by preferential sales from German arms companies to the Italian government. Increasingly Vienna, in its cleaving to a British position, was looking isolated, but Franz Josef was playing a long game and in his alliance with Moscow and with Istanbul he was looking both for future relevance and for the survival of his dynasty.

By 1914 the Turks were in retreat everywhere, and while Russian and British advisors swarmed amidst their military, it was obvious to those in Istanbul that defeat was inevitable. Wholly unsupported from foreign allies, despite what British propagandists would say, a movement swelled up from the streets to overthrow the puppet Mehmed and to place the "crown prince" Yusef in his stead. This much-admired prince of the dynasty immediately set about engaging with Berlin and Washington and bringing about an end to the wars. The Treaty of Berlin showed the dominance that Kaiser Heinrich had achieved in European affairs, its heavy French element a reflection of how close the former foes in Berlin and Paris were working together.

Italy gained Tripolitania, Cyrenaica and the Dodecanese, courtesy of her navy's annihilation of the Ottoman fleet, such as it was. Bulgaria advanced South over Thrace, and over Salonika. Greece advanced North and annexed the bullk of Albania. Serbia made huge gains in Macedonia, whilst Montenegro achieved a coastline around Scutari in the Adriatic. The Treaty of Berlin threatened to wipe Turkey off the face of Europe, but London, Moscow and Vienna ensured that Eastern Thrace and the balance of the Aegean islands remained in the hands of the new sultan. Austria-Hungary also annexed Bosnia-Hercegovina, not without loud protests from Moscow, but to quiet approval from London

President Charles E Hughes visited Berlin in 1915 and though the formal appearances of president and emperor were cordial, the two men did not get on well in private. Hughes' lawyers' mind and Heinrich's slower, but surer, political acumen did not gel, and the Kaiser missed his good friend Roosevelt on a personal level. The departure of Hughes marked a new low in trans-Atlantic relations, and coming as it did upon Curzon's renewed vigour did not bode well for Berlin. For Curzon had won the battle within the Conservative party between himself and Law, and now replaced the latter with his Unionist ally, Edward Carson as Foreign Secretary. Reared on Irish politics, Carson proved to be a surprisingly able Foreign Secretary within Europe, and soon had Moscow and Vienna reconciled to each other. Furthermore, he visited Bucharest and Istanbul, and was able to convince both King Ferdinand and Sultan Yusef of Britain's friendly intentions

President Hughes, up for re-election and unsure of his German allies took retreat in building up the fleet that his predecessor had started. Accepting a new and radical design in the all-big-gun New York he unconsciously brought about a revolution in naval development. (*7). These "Yorkers" began a trend that was soon being emulated from Tokyo to Berlin, from London to Saint Petersburg, and many places in betweeen

1916 would be a year of many tensions, many decisions and many changes. It shall be Part 2 of this document, now.


Best Regards
Grey Wolf




Notes

*1 Without the stresses and conflict of dealing with Wilhelm during his short reign, I have given Frederick III another 6-9 months of life, probably much of it as an invalid, but enough for him to see his eldest male-to-male grandchild

*2 I gave Bismarck another 18 months or so of life, the driving factor being power and his hold on it invigorating him. Retiring in 1898 he lived almost to see 1900, but not quite.

*3 In OTL Heinrich's sons were Waldemar and Sigismund, the names of his late younger brothers, and Heinrich who died at the age of 4. Here, since he is heir to the throne, I have named his eldest Friedrich after his father, his heir-to-be next as emperor, Wilhelm after his elder brother, and the third as Heinrich after himself. None of them die young (comparable to Wilhelm II having six sons, all of whom lived healthily to adulthood)

*4 This peace would be similar to OTL's Treaty of Portsmouth, where Russia got far more advantageous terms than it would appear to have deserved. Here there has been no TsuShima, and less internal rebellion, but these mitigating factors simply make the harder-headed Americans keen on what were actually the OTL terms

*5 On the basis that butterflies start to play games of their own, I have gone with events of the 1890s leading to a stronger position for Spencer. He was Liberal leader in the Lords, but in OTL was struck down in 1905 by 2 strokes and appeared to be a joke when petititioning for the premiership in the following year. With these strokes happening later he would be at the height of his powers, if waning in years, and in the different circumstances of ATL 1905 elected to sort things out. That he cannot, and does not, is hardly a surprise within politics, not due to him personally, but because failure is as often the result as is success

*6 Following the tradition, here not destroyed, of the Lords leader having equal power with that of the party leader in the Commons, and the primacy being decided upon personality and internal politics. Here, Curzon can gather that more than Law can.

*7 1915-1916 is ten or so years later than OTL, but this is a world without Tirpitz, and where Fisher never rose to his OTL prominence. We probably had a decade of the "intermediaries", it being noted that TsuShima never happened and that mosty modern naval analyses would be drawn from actions such as the Yellow Sea, and from Italy's hunting down and destruction of the obselete Ottoman fleet

Grey Wolf - Old I know but was there ever a part 2 post 1916?
 
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