Juvenal Habyarimana not assassinated 6 April 1994

WI Habyarimana's plane somehow hadn't been shot down on 6 April 1994 ? Say, if the SAM attempted to be used for the assassination was defective ? Or, alternatively, WI it'd been definitvely proven WHO exactly had shot him down, whether the shadowy French mercs or the RPF ? What would've been the ramifications in either case ?
 
If it is (by that I mean believed to be) France, then they are roundly condemned by the international community. If it is the RPF then I think we get some sort of Hutu reaction against Tutsi populations, but since Habyarimana was in negotiations with the RPF (which would be broken off), and wasn't the kind of extremist to back genocide, I'd think you'd see a crackdown by security forces to maintain order. Now, if it is Hutu Power, you have a crackdown as well, as well as the dismissal, and probable exultation, of some ministers, who were likely implicit in OTL.

Now, who wants to un-landlock Swaziland?
 
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