Jutland rematch 1918

Thomas1195

Banned
In 1918 otl, the RN actually tried to provoke the HSF to fight. What would happen if the HSF went to battle instead of revolt?
 
The overwhelming conclusion that I draw is that a combined RN and USN Grand fleet would smash the HSF in such an encounter

The HSF in 1918 = 18 Dreadnought Battleships and 5 Battle Cruisers

The Grand fleet in 1918 = 35 Dreadnought Battleships and 9 Battle Cruisers (11 if one counts the 2 Courageous class.....so 9 then)

For the British/USN force 12 of their ships (5 QE, 5 Revenge and 2 Renown classes) mounted 15" Guns - the Germans had 2 ships mounting 15" guns (Baden and Bayern)

As for the rest of the fleets the remaining RN units were mostly 13.5" and 12" guns vs the HSFs 12" and 11" guns

The 5 USN Battleships 2 had 14" guns and 3 had 12" guns

Then the light forces - the GF had 37 Cruisers and 160 Destroyers vs 14 Cruisers and 60 Destroyers in the HSF

The RN also had at least 3 Aircraft carriers with the GF

Also there was a massive disparity in the morale between the 2 fleets in the RN and USN a good yardstick is the number crewmembers on a given ships sick list at the time as very low as individual crewmembers sought to remain on their ships for what they all thought would be the big clash - the HSF on the other hand mutinied!

The issues that hamstrung the RNs efforts for a decisive clash at Jutland (Communication, Shells, ammunition storage and handling, accuracy of the Battle cruisers, night fighting techniques, intelligence handling etc) had largely been dealt with and or improved by 1918.

There is quite a good Wiki article that sort of covers this
 

Thomas1195

Banned
The overwhelming conclusion that I draw is that a combined RN and USN Grand fleet would smash the HSF in such an encounter

The HSF in 1918 = 18 Dreadnought Battleships and 5 Battle Cruisers

The Grand fleet in 1918 = 35 Dreadnought Battleships and 9 Battle Cruisers (11 if one counts the 2 Courageous class.....so 9 then)

For the British/USN force 12 of their ships (5 QE, 5 Revenge and 2 Renown classes) mounted 15" Guns - the Germans had 2 ships mounting 15" guns (Baden and Bayern)

As for the rest of the fleets the remaining RN units were mostly 13.5" and 12" guns vs the HSFs 12" and 11" guns

The 5 USN Battleships 2 had 14" guns and 3 had 12" guns

Then the light forces - the GF had 37 Cruisers and 160 Destroyers vs 14 Cruisers and 60 Destroyers in the HSF

The RN also had at least 3 Aircraft carriers with the GF

Also there was a massive disparity in the morale between the 2 fleets in the RN and USN a good yardstick is the number crewmembers on a given ships sick list at the time as very low as individual crewmembers sought to remain on their ships for what they all thought would be the big clash - the HSF on the other hand mutinied!

The issues that hamstrung the RNs efforts for a decisive clash at Jutland (Communication, Shells, ammunition storage and handling, accuracy of the Battle cruisers, night fighting techniques, intelligence handling etc) had largely been dealt with and or improved by 1918.

There is quite a good Wiki article that sort of covers this
One problem is that Jellicoe no longer commanded. I am not sure whether Beatty would act like in Jutland or not
 
One problem is that Jellicoe no longer commanded. I am not sure whether Beatty would act like in Jutland or not

Beatty was no longer the OC of an independent command and by 1918, despite his critique of Jellico's ridged control methods back in 1916 was running the GF in exactly the same way as Jellico with almost as many standing orders.

I think that learning's from Jutland would have empowered RN Admirals / Squadron commanders greater scope for using their initiative in such a 1918 scenario
 
If the Germans could bring some subs in position (as planned for 1916 Jütland) this might change the odds ...

Also not only the number of guns counts - better gunnery skills might further even odds (compare shells fired and hits scored for Jutland 1916)

But it surely odds are not in favor of Germany...
 

Coulsdon Eagle

Monthly Donor
If the Germans could bring some subs in position (as planned for 1916 Jütland) this might change the odds ...

Also not only the number of guns counts - better gunnery skills might further even odds (compare shells fired and hits scored for Jutland 1916)

But it surely odds are not in favor of Germany...

Strangely enough, while Hipper's SG1 comprehensively "out-shot" Beatty's BCF, on the obverse Jellicoe's Grand Fleet had a similar marked superiority of hit percentage's over Scheer's HSF.

And don't forget the RN started using longer-based rangefinders and improved minor issues like rubber mats to reduce the effect of the ship's vibrations. Don't fall into the trap that what both fleets could & did do in 1916 will be repeated in 1918. One (the RN) had improved many of the mediocre practices & equipment issues that hampered them at Jutland; the HSF was starting to decline in crew quality as the more ambitious junior officers & senior sailors moved into the U-Boat arm.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
The analysis of Battleship (Padfield) is that the Grand Fleet was roughly twice as effective ship-for-ship in 1918 as at Jutland - and that at Jutland the Grand Fleet was quite possibly better ship-for-ship than the Germans (especially in heavy weather) and considerably larger. (It's a sign of Scheer's skill that he ran like hell as soon as he realized what he was facing!)

One example is that they fitted longer base rangefinders. Another is that they began using double-salvo ranging (two salvos in the air at once, one spread for bearing and the other for range), and add to that the new shells (designed for oblique impact), better anti-flash, extra horizontal armour, gyro-stabilized directors (so the guns automatically fired at the right point in the roll), perfection of concentration fire, and copying German night fighting techniques.

I'm inclined to agree - essentially, as of Jutland the two fleets can be compared by numerical size, but by 1918 you have to more or less count each British ship as double.
 
Beatty was no longer the OC of an independent command and by 1918, despite his critique of Jellico's ridged control methods back in 1916 was running the GF in exactly the same way as Jellico with almost as many standing orders.

I think that learning's from Jutland would have empowered RN Admirals / Squadron commanders greater scope for using their initiative in such a 1918 scenario
Good point. Many commanders, if faced with German ship in gun range, and the opportunity to fire wouldn't await orders, but would fire, to ensure a mention in the morning papers.
 

Coulsdon Eagle

Monthly Donor
HSF crew quality was eroded as per my previous post. There must have been some developments, even if incremental, but the RN came from a low base with plenty of room for improvement, the HSF having learned some hard early lessons at Dogger Bank. I can't recall any specifics to match the RN reduction of errors after Jutland. Can you?
 
If the Germans could bring some subs in position (as planned for 1916 Jütland) this might change the odds ...

Also not only the number of guns counts - better gunnery skills might further even odds (compare shells fired and hits scored for Jutland 1916)

But it surely odds are not in favor of Germany...

A submarine in effectively both world wars had to get extremely lucky to sink a front line warship - Submarines operating underwater are slow and have limited endurance - the target literally had to almost pass over the 'attacking submarine' as the majority would very likely be steaming at 15+ knots (HMS Barham and Shinano) or had to be stationary or nearly stationary (Royal Oak and Yorktown).

Sinking a tramp steamer moving at 10 knots is a lot easier but the faster a ship moves the exponentially harder it gets to get a hit.

At best one or 2 subs might get lucky and get hits or pick of damaged ships after the battle as they limp back to port (Warspite nearly suffered this fate as she limped home after Jutland but then again another sub was very nearly run down by the old girl after it was spotted)

Also as has been mentioned the GF easily outshot the HSF scoring multiple hits on multiple ships with very little damage received in return - unlike the 1st and 2nd BC Squadrons the GF had been able to maintain their gunnery practice along with the 3rd BC Squadron as they subsequently proved.

The BC Squadrons had been kept on standby as a sort of rapid reaction force further south of the rest of the GF at Rosyth which had limited facilities for gunnery practice and ammo replenishment

This issue with the BC Squadrons gunnery skills had been noticed and the BC Squadrons had just started to rotate through Scarpa to spend time improving their gunnery skills - however on the eve of Jutland only 3rd BC Squadron (Adm Hood) had completed this rotation and despite the loss of Invincible there was nothing wrong with 'their' shooting on the day.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
Was nothing changes between 1916 and 1918 on the German side?
That is one of the problems with these scenarios. The Germans only completed two BB, Bayern & Baden after 1914 and one BC, Hindenberg after 1915. The HSF effectively stopped dead in its tracks after Jutland. The HSF had a number of ships under construction (2 BB, 5 BC) but nothing that could reasonably have been made ready in time.

The British had added 5 Revenge class BB (along with the two Courageous class Large CL), along with a squadron of 5 USN BB (there were the older U.S. ships since the British, due to lack of sufficient fuel oil, requested the U.S. dispatch coal fired ships, so only the two New York class had 14" guns).

So the already much larger Grand Fleet had added seven 14" or 15" ships, along with three 12" ships, while the HSF had added two 15" and one 12" ship.

The balance was much worse, and, as has been noted, the Grand Fleet maintained regular "at sea" maneuvers and on-going gunnery practice (something the later arriving USN squadron desperately needed, having lost most of their gunnery cadre to other commands) while the HSF mainly remained in port as a "fleet in being".
 
That is one of the problems with these scenarios. The Germans only completed two BB, Bayern & Baden after 1914 and one BC, Hindenberg after 1915. The HSF effectively stopped dead in its tracks after Jutland. The HSF had a number of ships under construction (2 BB, 5 BC) but nothing that could reasonably have been made ready in time.

The British had added 5 Revenge class BB (along with the two Courageous class Large CL), along with a squadron of 5 USN BB (there were the older U.S. ships since the British, due to lack of sufficient fuel oil, requested the U.S. dispatch coal fired ships, so only the two New York class had 14" guns).

So the already much larger Grand Fleet had added seven 14" or 15" ships, along with three 12" ships, while the HSF had added two 15" and one 12" ship.

The balance was much worse, and, as has been noted, the Grand Fleet maintained regular "at sea" maneuvers and on-going gunnery practice (something the later arriving USN squadron desperately needed, having lost most of their gunnery cadre to other commands) while the HSF mainly remained in port as a "fleet in being".

Yes, all of these attempts to get some changess into the Grand Fleet/HSF battles seems to be quite futile. Very one sided in 1918.
Could we imagine an alternate path for Germany that would make it less one sided?
I am certainly not an expert, but I have been drilled through some of the WW2 practicalities so I'll try a POD here.
1916, analysis of the battle of Jutland reveals that incapacitating hits came from plunging fire through the thinly armored decks. Krupp and Zeiss vouch that they could make modifications to the gun trajectories and better range finders to enable long range precision fire. HSF is modified for 30+ degree elevation.
Next battle of Jutland is started on a clear day with bright skys and sees the German battlecruisers pick apart the grand fleet battle cruisers and inflict heavy casualties on the Grand fleet before the distance can be closed.
Just a try.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Jutland OOB (capital ships)

Britain
28 DN (of which 6 15" 11 13.5" 1 14" 10 12")
9 BC (of which 5 12" 4 13.5")

Germany
16 DN (of which 12 12" 4 11")
6 PDN (11")
5 BC (2 12" 3 11")

Losses at Jutland

British - 2 12" BC 1 13.5" BC
German - 1 12" BC 1 11" PDN


Hypothetical rematch-Jutland fleet

Allies extra ships
1 QE
3 R
2 Renown BC
2 Courageous BC
1 Furious BC
2 NY
3 Other US Battleship

German extra ships
2 Bayern
1 Hindenburg


Allies -
36 DN (of which 10 15" 11 13.5" 3 14" 12 12")
11 BC (of which 3 12" 3 13.5" 4 15" 1 18")

Germans -
18 DN (of which 12 12" 4 11" 2 15")
5 BC (2 12" 3 11")
(I assume PDNs have no business in this battle)

The German scout line is outnumbered over two to one by far more powerfully gunned ships. The German battle-line is outnumbered 2:1 and is almost entirely 12" against an enemy with an average caliber of 13.5" - they're still outnumbered 3:2 or so even if they bring along every PDN with a gun over 10" (something which would cripple their fleet speed).

Given the aforementioned gunnery improvements to the GF, then the German ships will have to improve by a factor of three to four over their previous level in order to compete on even terms. Given what it took to make the Grand Fleet twice as effective (a considerable commitment of resources, several major improvements and technical achievements, and lots of sea practice) then I suspect for the HSF to become that good they're going to need to - just for a start - cancel the guerre de course (to make sure that the skilled crew don't go to the U-boats).
They'll also need plenty of sea and gunnery practice of their own, and quite apart from anything else they're going to need tens of thousands of shells (one practise shoot a week for two years = 100 practice shoots, ~25 ships, four shells per half salvo, if each practice shoot means ten half salvos that's order of a hundred thousand heavy shells) - which may well have an adverse effect on the war on the western front.

And even then, well, the British are preparing for a battle at a range of roughly 15,000 yards and that's what they've been training for. Hard to outrange that with any accuracy.
 
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A submarine in effectively both world wars had to get extremely lucky to sink a front line warship - Submarines operating underwater are slow and have limited endurance - the target literally had to almost pass over the 'attacking submarine' as the majority would very likely be steaming at 15+ knots (HMS Barham and Shinano) or had to be stationary or nearly stationary (Royal Oak and Yorktown).

Sinking a tramp steamer moving at 10 knots is a lot easier but the faster a ship moves the exponentially harder it gets to get a hit.

At best one or 2 subs might get lucky and get hits or pick of damaged ships after the battle as they limp back to port (Warspite nearly suffered this fate as she limped home after Jutland but then again another sub was very nearly run down by the old girl after it was spotted)

Also as has been mentioned the GF easily outshot the HSF scoring multiple hits on multiple ships with very little damage received in return - unlike the 1st and 2nd BC Squadrons the GF had been able to maintain their gunnery practice along with the 3rd BC Squadron as they subsequently proved.

The BC Squadrons had been kept on standby as a sort of rapid reaction force further south of the rest of the GF at Rosyth which had limited facilities for gunnery practice and ammo replenishment

This issue with the BC Squadrons gunnery skills had been noticed and the BC Squadrons had just started to rotate through Scarpa to spend time improving their gunnery skills - however on the eve of Jutland only 3rd BC Squadron (Adm Hood) had completed this rotation and despite the loss of Invincible there was nothing wrong with 'their' shooting on the day.

I basically agree and I am aware of the limitations ;)

But the original plan called for the subs to be place "in the likely approach" of the RN (not to HUNT after BBs) - if Hipper knows WHERE he goes with his fleet he can estimate what probably course the RN will take, so its possible - if a larger number of subs is spread out along the approaches (even near Rosith and/or Scapa;)) and if they manage to let loose a sizeable number of fishes that the RN might take some sizeable losses - of course it depends on the question of timing and the "luck" Hipper has with guessing where to place them. Its like hiding your snipers, if they are in the right place they can hurt the enemy, if the enemy chosses another path they will achieve nothing.
 
Strangely enough, while Hipper's SG1 comprehensively "out-shot" Beatty's BCF, on the obverse Jellicoe's Grand Fleet had a similar marked superiority of hit percentage's over Scheer's HSF.

And don't forget the RN started using longer-based rangefinders and improved minor issues like rubber mats to reduce the effect of the ship's vibrations. Don't fall into the trap that what both fleets could & did do in 1916 will be repeated in 1918. One (the RN) had improved many of the mediocre practices & equipment issues that hampered them at Jutland; the HSF was starting to decline in crew quality as the more ambitious junior officers & senior sailors moved into the U-Boat arm.

All true...

One issue would be the penetration issue /German shells had a better prenetration than British)

Its often not the caliber that decides, its shell quality

- AFAIK the Brits had solved the problem somewhen in 1918 and started to replace older shells with improved ones, so if the second Jutland is before that date the shellsthat hit might not penetrate (same as 1916) If after the date the Germans might be toast. :D
 

Saphroneth

Banned
All true...

One issue would be the penetration issue /German shells had a better prenetration than British)

Its often not the caliber that decides, its shell quality

- AFAIK the Brits had solved the problem somewhen in 1918 and started to replace older shells with improved ones, so if the second Jutland is before that date the shellsthat hit might not penetrate (same as 1916) If after the date the Germans might be toast. :D
German shells may not have penetrated better (given the armour they faced) - the main reason for the losses was flash in the cartridge supply for the Brits, and both sides had some turret penetrations. (This differential was the main problem of the Battle Cruisers in Jutland, not the Grand Fleet, and the issue had been corrected by 1917.)
But yes, Greenboy shells had much better penetration than the earlier British ones.
 
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Jutland OOB (capital ships)

Hypothetical rematch-Jutland fleet

Allies extra ships
1 QE
3 R
2 Renown BC
2 Courageous BC
1 Furious BC
2 NY
3 Other US Battleship

German extra ships
2 Bayern
1 Hindenburg


Allies -
36 DN (of which 10 15" 11 13.5" 3 14" 12 12")
11 BC (of which 3 12" 3 13.5" 4 15" 1 18")

Germans -
18 DN (of which 12 12" 4 11" 2 15")
5 BC (2 12" 3 11")
(I assume PDNs have no business in this battle)

The German scout line is outnumbered over two to one by far more powerfully gunned ships. The German battle-line is outnumbered 2:1 and is almost entirely 12" against an enemy with an average caliber of 13.5" - they're still outnumbered 3:2 or so even if they bring along every PDN with a gun over 10" (something which would cripple their fleet speed).

Given the aforementioned gunnery improvements to the GF, then the German ships will have to improve by a factor of three to four over their previous level in order to compete on even terms. Given what it took to make the Grand Fleet twice as effective (a considerable commitment of resources, several major improvements and technical achievements, and lots of sea practice) then I suspect for the HSF to become that good they're going to need to - just for a start - cancel the guerre de course (to make sure that the skilled crew don't go to the U-boats).
They'll also need plenty of sea and gunnery practice of their own, and quite apart from anything else they're going to need tens of thousands of shells (one practise shoot a week for two years = 100 practice shoots, ~25 ships, four shells per half salvo, if each practice shoot means ten half salvos that's order of a hundred thousand heavy shells) - which may well have an adverse effect on the war on the western front.

And even then, well, the British are preparing for a battle at a range of roughly 15,000 yards and that's what they've been training for. Hard to outrange that with any accuracy.

Well, I tried
 
Krupp and Zeiss vouch that they could make modifications to the gun trajectories and better range finders to enable long range precision fire. HSF is modified for 30+ degree elevation.
Next battle of Jutland is started on a clear day with bright skys and sees the German battlecruisers pick apart the grand fleet battle cruisers and inflict heavy casualties on the Grand fleet before the distance can be closed. Just a try.

Well, as a plan it's vulnerable to visibility and luck. Another problem is the tactical role of the battlecruisers in a fleet action. They were scouts, designed to push through the enemy screen to detect the enemy battle line, while hindering the enemy's attempts to do the same. That's not very compatible with a plan of keeping at range of the enemy's battlecruisers, because you could just find yourself retreating in front of the enemy instead of accomplishing your goal of pushing forward. It's one of the ironies of Jutland that, tactically, Hipper handed Beattie's arse to him on a plate, yet Beatty accomplished his mission and Hipper did not.
 
Well, as a plan it's vulnerable to visibility and luck. Another problem is the tactical role of the battlecruisers in a fleet action. They were scouts, designed to push through the enemy screen to detect the enemy battle line, while hindering the enemy's attempts to do the same. That's not very compatible with a plan of keeping at range of the enemy's battlecruisers, because you could just find yourself retreating in front of the enemy instead of accomplishing your goal of pushing forward. It's one of the ironies of Jutland that, tactically, Hipper handed Beattie's arse to him on a plate, yet Beatty accomplished his mission and Hipper did not.

The Battlecruiser action might be the best bit of the battle for the Germans: the follies wouldn't take much to sink, and the Germans might just be able to a get a lucky hit. Depends on how bright William Pakenham is. If the Queen Elizabeth class are sent with him, then I would expect it to a bloodbath for the German Battlecruisers - 14:5 isn't a good margin.
 
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