Justinian's conquests?

Would there by any way for Justin II to successfully keep control of and possibly expand the land added to the empire by Justinian?
 
It could perhaps be done if the Plague of Justinian in the middle of the sixth century does not take place.

It had a strong, social, cultural, and above all economic and demographic impact. It's estimated to have wiped out 1/4 of population of the eastern Mediterranean Sea and killed perhaps up tot 40% of the population of Constantinople. Such a dramatic death toll would have coincided with a severe economic contraction and a decrease in the population also meant a significantly smaller manpower pool and therefore a less powerful army, which is complemented by reduced tax income. It's often seen as a cause for Persian succes in the Byzantine-Persian Wars that followed which forced the Byzantines to give up their recent conquests.

If this doesn't happen, the Byzantines are in a much better position to successfully ward off Persian attacks (if they still occur, seeing how Persian attacks may have been inspired by Byzantine weakness). This gives them much more time to consolidate in Italy as well.
 
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I dount that they'd be able to hold onto that little bit of Spain the had. The Visigoths had the clear geographic advantage. If the Byzantines where able to hold on to the west for longer, I can see the Visigoths being their primary rival in the region, either them or the Franks.
 
Spain, surely not: Italy, maybe if the Langubard ( I don't understand why in english they called they Lombards...:confused:) advance could be stop, could remain strongly in Byzantine hands...

I have in mind a TL project with this POD (Italy remained in Byzantine hands), but i will start it more later because it will have narrative parts and also for now two TLs still open are sufficent for me.
 
Would there by any way for Justin II to successfully keep control of and possibly expand the land added to the empire by Justinian?
For Justin II this was impossible to reach: he was crazy. His successor, Tiberius II Constantine, did have effective control over the conquered lands and was an able Emperor. Maurice was competent but was overthrown in 602 by Phokas, just because he had ordered the army to camp north of the Danube during the winter. It was Phokas who destroyed Imperial infrastructure and Khorsau II declared war on the Empire because Phokas had overthrown Maurice, an old ally of Khorsau.
 
Byzantium would have had a better chance of holding Italy if Justinian's original heir, his cousin Germanus, had lived to succeed him. Not only was Germanus honest and able (source: Procopius), but he was married to an Ostrogothic princess, so he should have been able to get the goths to follow him when the Lombard invasion came. Ostrogoths did enlist in his army during the time he held an Italian command under Justinian.
 
The plague of Justinian is highly overrated. What really would have done him some good would be a quick wrapping up of the Gothic wars, or at least the proposed peace deals in which he would have gotten like all of Italy south of the Po.
Believe me, the 20+ years made a huuugeeee difference. A quick war saves a lot of money and a lot of would be happy Italians.
 
Would there by any way for Justin II to successfully keep control of and possibly expand the land added to the empire by Justinian?

The question is - why should the Byzantine empire expand even further?

With Africa and Italy and the islands, the rather more fruitful -and less destroyed- parts of the old Western Empire had been incorporated. The need would have been to thorougly digest this rapid re-conquest for a generation or two.

If this works out and able emperors defeat the Persian and Arabian challenges of the early 600s, there might be a move to make the Med a "Mare Nostrum" again by finishing the Visigoths off - and by confronting the Franks over Southern Gaul. Beyond that, I do not see any sense in Byzantine expansion. Maybe this is accomplished by 650.

But what then? There will be several able and troublesome foes which simply won't go away.

-a United Arabia
- whoever organizes Persia, Islamic or Not (depending on how successfully the Empire deals with the Arabs in this timeline's analogy to the Yarmuk)
- the Franks
- the continuous trouble in the Danubian region. Whoever you beat there is just gonne be replaced by a new problematic neighbour.
 
- the continuous trouble in the Danubian region. Whoever you beat there is just gonne be replaced by a new problematic neighbour.

During the sixth century this really wasn't a big deal. Just a lot of raiding blown out of proportion. Arguably, Justinian's distraction in Italy is what caused the Danube region to fall apart like it did eventually. Higher investment and just plain paying attention would have done wonders for the Balkans.
 
Spain, surely not: Italy, maybe if the Langubard ( I don't understand why in english they called they Lombards...:confused:) advance could be stop, could remain strongly in Byzantine hands...

I have in mind a TL project with this POD (Italy remained in Byzantine hands), but i will start it more later because it will have narrative parts and also for now two TLs still open are sufficent for me.

Words often said in a different language get corrupted by English-speakers into something they can pronounce easier, or quicker...or whatever the case may be. Take assassin. The word is a corrupted form of hashish..which its said was used by a group dedicated to murder for ransom. In the same way Langobard, meaning 'long beard', was corrupted into the English Lombard.

Having explained that, the possibility of expanding on the conquests of Justinian is quite plausible if the plague is avoided, as was indicated before. Also, if a civil war could be started among the Visigoths in Spain, its plausible to not only hold on to the southern coastlands, but expand upon them, by possibly making the Visigoths subordinate subjects of Byzantium. This would indeed make the Byzantines rivals to the Franks, but with Visigoth troops to add to the Imperial troops already available, would prevent the Franks from really making any headway into Iberia, and might later on prevent the Islamic Berbers from being able to expand their own state (assuming Islam sweeps out of Arabia as it does in OTL)
 

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The plague of Justinian is highly overrated. What really would have done him some good would be a quick wrapping up of the Gothic wars, or at least the proposed peace deals in which he would have gotten like all of Italy south of the Po.
Believe me, the 20+ years made a huuugeeee difference. A quick war saves a lot of money and a lot of would be happy Italians.
I think having 1/4 of the Empire's population die is pretty big, but yes I guess if the war goes really quickly the Byzantines might hold onto Italy until the next wave of barbarians strike or the area goes independent
 
I think having 1/4 of the Empire's population die is pretty big
Very debatably 1/4th, and it hit everyone.

I guess if the war goes really quickly the Byzantines might hold onto Italy until the next wave of barbarians strike or the area goes independent

I don't think you realise how fast the war could/should have been won. Even with its failures, they held on to large chunks for centuries.
 
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