Justinian

Basically he gets replaced by someone more charismatic and probably short sighted. This might also allow for Byzantium to not overextend itself in the Italian Wars, and would actually allow Italy to exprerience some recovery for a time.
 
Basically he gets replaced by someone more charismatic and probably short sighted. This might also allow for Byzantium to not overextend itself in the Italian Wars, and would actually allow Italy to exprerience some recovery for a time.
More likely gets replaced by a darling of the mob, who is ineffectual, leading to more civil war as better supported (by the army and/or bureaucracy) candidates try coups.
 
More likely gets replaced by a darling of the mob, who is ineffectual, leading to more civil war as better supported (by the army and/or bureaucracy) candidates try coups.

This is most likely. Justinian will likely be replaced by Hypatius, an ineffectual nonentity who was the nephew of the Emperor Anastasius. We might still see the Vandal War happen, but probably not the Gothic one.

In the long term, the poison of succesful revolt is in the blood of the Eastern Empire eighty years earlier than Phocas and Heraclius' OTL revolts, and this is a revolt driven by the urban mob of Constantinople alone, which won't happen until the eleventh century IOTL (as far as I can think, I could easily be forgetting someone!). That will have important consequences for political discourse in the Empire.
 
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