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As a Republican, that is, not as an independent candidate as the case was in Jasen777's excellent "Chaos: The Election of 1996".

I was reading an article online recently dating back to 1996, detailing Pat Buchanan's surprise win in the New Hampshire primary. In it, polling also suggested that most NH voters were unhappy that Powell hadn't jumped into the race. This was, of course, when the General was at the height of his popularity. His role in the Gulf War was still in recent memory, and his autobiography My American Journey was released in 1995 (which may I say was excellent). Many Republicans were hoping that he would jump in, and just as many Democrats were fearing that possibility. In short, he was the GOP's best hope to take back the White House that year.

So let's say he jumps in. Bob Dole for whatever reason doesn't, and Powell's path to the nomination is a bit easier than Dole's. For the sake of discussion, we'll even say he picks Jack Kemp for the same reason Dole does- to balance the ticket. How well does Powell/Kemp do against Clinton/Gore in November?

Does Powell reverse the inexorable decline the Republicans experienced in former strongholds such as California, New England, and much of the Rust Belt? Does the Bradley Effect kick in, allowing Clinton to do better in the South? For that matter, can Powell get a competitive portion of the black vote? Does Perot still jump in? Does Pat Buchanan maybe run third party?

And most importantly, who wins the election?
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