Just Barely Victorious Confederacy?

Okay, my question is: would it be possible for the Civil War to end with the following outcome?

-The Confederate States are independent.
-The Union gets all the border states, including Maryland and Kentucky.
-The Union gets West Virginia.
-The Union gets East Tennessee.

Bonus points if the Union also gets to keep Texas.
 
Okay, my question is: would it be possible for the Civil War to end with the following outcome?

-The Confederate States are independent.
-The Union gets all the border states, including Maryland and Kentucky.
-The Union gets West Virginia.
-The Union gets East Tennessee.

Bonus points if the Union also gets to keep Texas.

Well, I can see the first four. As for Texas, the Union never occupied any significant portion of Texas during the war. It occupied the area around El Paso and that's about it. While it might claim that area and attach it to New Mexico, annexing the rest of Texas is probably not possible, unless we introduce some major PODs. The problem being, of course, that the kind of PODs which would lead to Texas being occupied by the Union during the war would make it LESS likely, not more likely, that the Confederacy itself could survive the war in any way, shape, or form.
 
All right. How about instead of Texas, the Union gets control over the Mississippi - not necessarily formally, but with the clear ability to close it off if they really want to?
 
Well if the CSA wins they wont let the Union control the Mississippi otherwise they wont be really independant. Losing Tennesiee is far more likely.

As for what happens to the soith. It'll be a basket-case, Grant puts it well.

“The South was more to be benefited by its defeat than the North. [The North] had the people, the institutions, and the territory to make a great and prosperous nation. [The South] was burdened with an institution abhorrent to all civilized people not brought up under it, and one which degraded labor, kept it in ignorance, and enervated the governing class. With the outside world at war with this institution, they could not have extended their territory. The labor of the country was not skilled, nor allowed to become so. The whites could not toil without becoming degraded, and those who did were denominated “poor white trash.” The system of labor would have soon exhausted the soil and left the people poor. The non-slaveholders would have left the country, and the small slaveholder must have sold out to his more fortunate neighbor. Soon the slaves would have outnumbered the masters, and, not being in sympathy with them, would have risen in their might and exterminated them. The war was expensive to the South as well as to the North, both in blood and treasure, but it was worth all it cost.”

Its shocking how lightly the CSA got-off post-war. Given that the plantation-massa lunatics who ruled the South and had been intimidating the North for decades, basically threatening to jump off a cliff and take the rest of the country with them if anybody even dared to maybe suggest that the whole slave economy thing was a bad idea and wasn’t doing the USA's image any good.
 
In fairness, its not the system of labor, its what that labor was used for - cotton and similar crops consume the soil with a voracious hunger.
 
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