Junot captures the Braganzas

Apparently the French general was fairly close to Lisbon when the Portuguese royal family fled to Brazil in 1807. What if some sort of delay at the port, or a bit more speed by the French, resulted in French troops reaching Lisbon in time and they capture the royalty? How does this affect the Napoleonic Wars going forward? And what of Brazil and the other parts of the Portuguese Empire? And Portugal itself?
 

Tamandaré

Banned
I think its actually more probable that Junot is actually beaten back from Lisboa. In OTL his army was said to look like a bunch of starved beggars when they reached Lisboa. Can't see a well-entrenched Portuguese army failing to beat such a tired and hungry army.

To be fair, Dom João VII was a pretty cowardly sort.

Anway, assuming they do capture the Royal Family, they will probably get guilhotined. If no remaining heir, no matter how distant, can be found, BAD THINGS happen.

Portuguese Brazil is administered by Viceroys and nobles, prolly propped up by the British. It would be very similar to how Spanish America was left abandoned when the Spanish monarchy was deposed by Napoleon.

The war finishes with a British Victory as per OTL. Here's where the problems start:

POSSIBILITY 1: Portuguese Civil War

There's no King and no heir. Portugal was a very traditional country at the time. We might see someone decide that a republic would be totally radical, but I doubt they would get much traction and I doubt the British would let that happen. No, the fight would be amongst nobles and burgeoisle, probably drawn on ideological lines, Ancién Regime vs Liberals.

POSSIBILITY 2: Foreign noble takes power or Personnal Union with another Kingdom

Depending on who survives and dies, this might happen. We need to see the Laws and the Marriages and Family ties in the Portugal of that time. I'm betting we're getting a Saxe-Coburg-Gotha or a Hapsburg on the throne. A Portugal PU with England would be very interesting.

I do wonder if the Portuguese aren't going to instantly riot over this. They don't have nice memmories of Personnal Unions there, we all know what happened the last time Portugal did one.

POSSIBILITY 3: Brazilian Fragmentation

Probably going to happen if Portugal enters in Civil War. We might see battlelines drawn on the colonies, or the Brazilians simply use the distraction to secede en masse. Resulting countries might include Grão-Pará, Equator Confederation on the northeast and on the São Francisco river, Minas in most of the southwest and perhaps a São Paulo that also streches to Rio Grande do Sul as well.

One thing I'm sure is that we might either the Viceroys doing a lot of stuff on thheir own (say, trading with Brits). We might see a more developed Portuguese America as the Colonial Monopoly is gone.
 
How many monarchs did napoleon execute OTL?

None that I'm aware of. The Duc d'Enghien was executed by him for dubious reasons which was pretty scandalous and did a lot to harden opposition to him in Europe.

Having him execute a royal family would be a heinous act that would be political suicide. Spaniards would assume the Bourbons were next, and every ruler would assume a Napoleonic victory meant their death.
 
The fragmentation of Brazil is granted in this scenario. The only things which kept the country together IOTL were the legitimacy of Dom Pedro I (as the Crown prince of Portugal and Regent of Brazil) and the bureaucratic/administrative apparel which was brought by the Portuguese in 1808.

Resulting countries might include, as Tamandaré hinted at, the Republic of Pernambuco (with other several provinces, ala Equator Confederation), the Republic of São Francisco (Bahia, Sergipe etc), the Republic of Ceará (all of them in the north), a large and powerful state based in Minas Gerais, Rio, Espiríto Santo, São Paulo and Paraná (which will not be able to defeat its rivals, though) and the mandatory Riograndense Republic (Rio Grande do Sul) and the Juliana Republic (maybe, in Santa Catarina).

I have actually my doubts that Grão Pará will declare independence from Portugal. Belém was a loyalist stronghold in OTL (as well as much of the Northeast) and the states which might forcefully annex it are too weak to do so.

In Europe, someone will find a living Braganza to restore the Portuguese Monarchy, but it will be too late.
 

Vitruvius

Donor
You guys beat me to it. But yeah, execution is really really unlikely. Of course there's not many cases of Napoleon getting his hands on an opposing monarch in such a fashion. Most Royals who ardently opposed Napoleon simply fled from Europe, the French and Sicilian Bourbons, the Savoys, the Duke of Brunswick, the Elector of Hesse-Kassel and so on. The only analogous situation would be Spain, and all Napoleon did there was to imprison the entire royal family at Valençay.

So assuming the Braganzas are captured the the family is probably interned in some French Chateau while the country is occupied OTL. The main difference would be what happens to Brazil without the King there to rule it. Probably it breaks off or fragments like Spanish America. In post war Portugal it would be interesting if Pedro IV comes to power uncontested as a moderate or even liberal ruler, unless of course his experience in French captivity changes his outlook.

There were a couple of threads here and here discussing the line of succession in case the fleet carrying the Royal Family was to sink. In the end I believe it looked like the legitimate claimant was the Duke of Escalona, a Spanish Grandee. Failing that they could select one of illegitimate Portuguese lines or simply pass it to the Bourbons, who have a distant theoretical claim. Certainly quite a mess and not likely to be sorted out until the Congress of Vienna. Which I suppose could just throw out all the (rather tenuous) claimants and put up someone else entirely.
 
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