June 28, 1914. Double regicide.

On June 28, 1914 Archduke Ferdinand was assassinated in Saraevo (BTW, does this count as a proper regicide?). At the same day Nicholas II had been assassinated <chose the place and disregard a relatively low probability of the event; he can also die from an indigestion ;)>.

Russia is in some kind of a dynastic crisis (taking into an account Alexei's age and health and the issue of regency) and interference on the Serbian behalf is low on the list of priorities.

How events are developing from this point?
 
Russia is likely in either a somewhat better or catastrophically worse position, depending on whether the now Dowager Tsarina and Rasputin can be deprived of their power or not by the remaining Romanov males.
 
You'd have a hard time convincing everyone this is not some kind of sinister world-spanning anarchist plot. This would ironically take the spotlight off of Serbia and is likely to butterfly away the July Crisis as we know it. Although there's still a medium chance A-H would try to attack Serbia.
 
Russia is likely in either a somewhat better or catastrophically worse position, depending on whether the now Dowager Tsarina and Rasputin can be deprived of their power or not by the remaining Romanov males.

Yes, this is the whole point. :)

Russia is too busy to start doing things that in the OTL led to the WWI and when the whole issue of succession/regency is settled, the Serbian crisis is a history. I'm not sure that, with a possible exception of the unlikely scenario when the Grand Duke Nicholas Nikolaevich becomes a regent (and the "Montenegrin Gang" is getting a lot of influence), any regency would repeat the steps of Nicholas II. There also could be an opening for "more constitutional" monarchy with the responsible government and Duma evolving into the full-scale parliament: with the potential rivalry between the Romanov males and Alexandra the side which wants to win would have to expand his/her support base. Taking into an account that the most legal figure of the regent, Michael, seems to be rather indifferent to the power him being ready for a greater compromise is more probable than in the case of Alexandra who was too dumb, too stubborn and too disliked.

Anyway, the chance to start WWI is missed and Europe is at peace for a while. Can this situation continue?
 
Russia is likely in either a somewhat better or catastrophically worse position, depending on whether the now Dowager Tsarina and Rasputin can be deprived of their power or not by the remaining Romanov males.

Rasputin is found dead. After taking a walk. At three in the morning. And stabbing himself in the back 23 times and shooting himself in the head three times. And after all that he manages to walk half a mile and throw himself into the nearest large body of water to die of a heart attack.
 
You'd have a hard time convincing everyone this is not some kind of sinister world-spanning anarchist plot. This would ironically take the spotlight off of Serbia and is likely to butterfly away the July Crisis as we know it.

Yes, this is a general idea. BTW, in the case of Russia it would be probably the plot by the SR's: they were doing most of the assassination work with the anarchists never being (AFAIK) high on the list.

Although there's still a medium chance A-H would try to attack Serbia.

It could happen because Serbia is not protected. However, with Nicky gone an issue of losing the face is also gone so there is no reason for the new Russian government to make too much fuss about Serbia. Actually, if that government possesses combined IQ above zero level, the whole thing could be used for building up anti-revolutionary alliance with the agreements regarding extradition, cooperation in the hunting revolutionaries down, etc. IMO, if Nicky was not a complete idiot, he would try to use assassination of Ferdinand for something like that: quite a few Russian revolutionaries had been hiding in A-H and Germany and the some other countries could be persuaded to cooperate as well.
 
But Wilhelm might be even MORE inclined
to issue his “blank check” now that he would feel he no longer has Russia to worry about.
 
Rasputin is found dead. After taking a walk. At three in the morning. And stabbing himself in the back 23 times and shooting himself in the head three times. And after all that he manages to walk half a mile and throw himself into the nearest large body of water to die of a heart attack.

You forgot taking a big amount of poison before going to this fatal walk. ;)
 
Rasputin is found dead. After taking a walk. At three in the morning. And stabbing himself in the back 23 times and shooting himself in the head three times. And after all that he manages to walk half a mile and throw himself into the nearest large body of water to die of a heart attack.

All having tied his own hands behind his back.

Then climb out of the water, cross the river but fall off the bridge and break his neck on the towpath, then get run over by a horse, stood up and then had a tortoise dropped on his head by an eagle (the Classics provide the great ones).
 
Yes, this is a general idea. BTW, in the case of Russia it would be probably the plot by the SR's: they were doing most of the assassination work with the anarchists never being (AFAIK) high on the list.

True, although I don't think public opinion differentiated much between SRs and other movements - especially not in the rest of Europe. Most would perceive it all as anarchism of some kind.

It could happen because Serbia is not protected. However, with Nicky gone an issue of losing the face is also gone so there is no reason for the new Russian government to make too much fuss about Serbia. Actually, if that government possesses combined IQ above zero level, the whole thing could be used for building up anti-revolutionary alliance with the agreements regarding extradition, cooperation in the hunting revolutionaries down, etc. IMO, if Nicky was not a complete idiot, he would try to use assassination of Ferdinand for something like that: quite a few Russian revolutionaries had been hiding in A-H and Germany and the some other countries could be persuaded to cooperate as well.

In my opinion, Russia's decision to defend Serbia in OTL was not exactly stupid. It was a dangerous gamble, but refusing to do so would have also been a dangerous gamble, and could have ended up with Russia in a really, really bad position.

The thing about the whole "anti-revolutionary alliance" angle is that it takes two to tango...and Germany and A-H were not willing. In fact, Germany sent nationalist revolutionary teams into Russia in the middle of the July Crisis (shortly after the assassination of Franz Ferdinand, and long before the diplomacy played itself out).
In other words, Berlin and Vienna had already decided that Russia is the enemy and that it should be confronted and undermined, not cooperated with - even before Petrograd had decided to defend Serbia.
 
True, although I don't think public opinion differentiated much between SRs and other movements - especially not in the rest of Europe. Most would perceive it all as anarchism of some kind.

In my opinion, Russia's decision to defend Serbia in OTL was not exactly stupid. It was a dangerous gamble, but refusing to do so would have also been a dangerous gamble, and could have ended up with Russia in a really, really bad position.

It would leave Nicholas II with even less prestige than in OTL but, in general, Russian population was not eager to go to war to defend Serbia so the damage would be mostly international and even then quite limited: the important thing was Franco-Russian alliance and it would not go away. If anything, his regime could not afford any dangerous games, especially those which could not be easily stopped.

The thing about the whole "anti-revolutionary alliance" angle is that it takes two to tango...and Germany and A-H were not willing. In fact, Germany sent nationalist revolutionary teams into Russia in the middle of the July Crisis (shortly after the assassination of Franz Ferdinand, and long before the diplomacy played itself out).
In other words, Berlin and Vienna had already decided that Russia is the enemy and that it should be confronted and undermined, not cooperated with - even before Petrograd had decided to defend Serbia.

Nationalists were a different story and an idea of anti-revolutionary cooperation never was proposed (AFAIK).
 
It would leave Nicholas II with even less prestige than in OTL but, in general, Russian population was not eager to go to war to defend Serbia so the damage would be mostly international and even then quite limited

The international damage is the important part - and I'd say it would be pretty huge.
But that discussion is not strictly relevant to the topic, so maybe it's best we leave it for another thread.
 
The international damage is the important part - and I'd say it would be pretty huge.
But that discussion is not strictly relevant to the topic, so maybe it's best we leave it for another thread.

Yes. Intention of this one was to avoid WWI at least for a while but, as usually, it evolving into something different.
 
Rasputin is found dead. After taking a walk. At three in the morning. And stabbing himself in the back 23 times and shooting himself in the head three times. And after all that he manages to walk half a mile and throw himself into the nearest large body of water to die of a heart attack.
Natural death. Like sasuke said in some wierd fanfic.
 
Rasputin is found dead. After taking a walk. At three in the morning. And stabbing himself in the back 23 times and shooting himself in the head three times. And after all that he manages to walk half a mile and throw himself into the nearest large body of water to die of a heart attack.
It seems like U.S. government got him. This is 70th time this century, I apologize on our behalf
 
Yes, this is the whole point. :)

Russia is too busy to start doing things that in the OTL led to the WWI and when the whole issue of succession/regency is settled, the Serbian crisis is a history. I'm not sure that, with a possible exception of the unlikely scenario when the Grand Duke Nicholas Nikolaevich becomes a regent (and the "Montenegrin Gang" is getting a lot of influence), any regency would repeat the steps of Nicholas II. There also could be an opening for "more constitutional" monarchy with the responsible government and Duma evolving into the full-scale parliament: with the potential rivalry between the Romanov males and Alexandra the side which wants to win would have to expand his/her support base. Taking into an account that the most legal figure of the regent, Michael, seems to be rather indifferent to the power him being ready for a greater compromise is more probable than in the case of Alexandra who was too dumb, too stubborn and too disliked.

Anyway, the chance to start WWI is missed and Europe is at peace for a while. Can this situation continue?
Possibly, Russia is engaged in a major military build up at this point and Germany's own estimate was this would make victory impossible by 1916. Get that far and the combination of a balance of terror in the East and the end of the anglo German navy race might put off the war for good or at least a generation.

That said Germany has a ticking clock, Russia has been decapped at the start of a potential major crisis and Austria is out for Serbian blood. Lossing Nicky could make war more likely not less because the Germans may calculate that kicking them when they're down is the best option here.

Nonsense, the provisional government announced he died of natural causes, what reason would they have to lie?
To quote Mr E Blackadder "He brutally cut his head off whilst shaving," unhappy accident, nothing to see here.
 
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