July 20th, A Day Which Will Live in Victory

Carl Friedrich Goerdeler was going to be head of the government.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_Friedrich_Goerdeler

He also wanted to deported majority of Jews to South America.
Yup, the July 20th plot members were that nice bunch of chaps.

Among those against Hitler people like Goerdeler and Canaris bought into the notion that Jews in Europe were a kind a of third rail who should be shipped off.

Not all of them bought into whole Jews are Europe's third rail crap. On Jewish issues they ranged from supporting Nazi policy of the 30s on them, not the later policy, to bringing them back into the fold of German society and going back to pre-Nazi era policy on regard to the Jews. I suspect that was one of the reasons Hollywood was willing to promote Rommel during the war, the other being the British were already doing that.
 
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On 16 September, with five days rest to prepare, 3,700 Allied bombers hit targets in Germany. And to mollify Stalin, the demand for unconditional surrender is renewed. British and American forces cross the Seine in four places, and the French First Army breaks through Belfort Gap into Alsace. All of Italy is now clear except a few areas in the Alps. German rearguards are passing through Zagreb.

On 20 September German forces evacuate Paris. As a "good will gesture", the Germans declare Paris an "open city" and forego any demolitions or booby traps (they said).

In Berlin, the neo-German regime is in despair. It seemed nothing would shake the Allied insistence on unconditional surrender. Stauffenberg, the most ruthless of the neo-German leaders, proposes offering a separate peace to Stalin, but this is rejected. It is pointed out that if unconditional surrender was inevitable, and it seems that way, there is no point in delaying the surrender. With great bitterness, the neo-German leaders agree to this after another day's debate.

On 26 September Germany announces its surrender effective October 1.

Except that would be stupid for Germany, its people and all its soldiers fighting in the East to order an offical surrender at that time. Conducting a 'retreating campaign' by moving forces East to hold the line against the Soviets as long as possible while the Western Allies take Germany was the way to go until the offical surrender is ordered.

And, yes Stalin still gets an occupation zone, but it would likely be smaller and Russian troops wouldn't be given the same kind of blank check to pillage and mass rape German girls of any age. They would have likely been ordered to be on better behavior out of fear the WAllies would yank the occupation zone from them.
 
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Among those against Hitler people like Goerdeler and Canaris bought into the notion that Jews in Europe were a kind a of third rail who should be shipped off.

Heh. Not familiar with your 'third rail' image. But i will note that they are what provides the power for the train to run... (on train systems that have them)

Which makes the comment meaningful at a different level. Turning off germanys motive power.
 
Heh. Not familiar with your 'third rail' image. But i will note that they are what provides the power for the train to run... (on train systems that have them)

Which makes the comment meaningful at a different level. Turning off germanys motive power.

It was going off anyway, its simply the July Plotters for the most part were unaware of the military reality in the West.

As for Jewish issues after over a decade of propaganda a not small percentage of German society bought into the notion that they were dangerous and a number of them were part of the July Plot. Not all of them did buy the propaganda though.

The reality was you didn't get high up in the German military or politics in that era by being a saint to put it mildly. And, quite a few of the plotters pretty much had the view that German foreign policy was fine until Hitler started mass killing innocent civilians and bite off more then Germany could chew in 1941.
 
Which makes the comment meaningful at a different level. Turning off germanys motive power.

Very well observed!

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Concerning Stauffenberg's "wish List":

1. Is the Concept pre- or post-Invasion?
2. One should Be aware that Anything Less than keeping the Anschlusses of 38 and the 1914- border in the East could simply Not Be Sold internally. The conspirators were well aware which Picture had been painted of the People who made Peace in 1918/19.
 
Very well observed!

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Concerning Stauffenberg's "wish List":

1. Is the Concept pre- or post-Invasion?
2. One should Be aware that Anything Less than keeping the Anschlusses of 38 and the 1914- border in the East could simply Not Be Sold internally. The conspirators were well aware which Picture had been painted of the People who made Peace in 1918/19.

That is a real part of the problem that a real understanding of how weak a position Germany was in at the time wasn't there on the part of the elite in German society let alone the common people.
 
If Germany is visibly retreating from southern France and France in general as fast as they can I could see Churchill returning to his old hobby horse and pressing for it to be re-tasked somewhere else like the Balkans, whatever the feasability. Not sure doable it is or how receptive the American would be though.

No doubt, and every one will politely ignore him.

Look at the timeline.

The bomb on 20 July.

COBRA on 25 July.

VII Corps breaks out of Normandy at Avranches on 30 July.

Neo-Germans order the withdrawal from France on 3 August.

The DRAGOON landings were scheduled for 15 August. That means all the prep was in place some weeks earlier, and the scheduled landing is only 12 days off.

There simply isn't time to "re-task" the DRAGOON force. There may be just enough time to accelerate the landings by a few days.

Also, half the force was Free French; they had been promised a return to their own country, to liberate it themselves. They (and De Gaulle) would scream to high heaven if that was taken away.

However - it's possible that DRAGOON might be scaled back. Or that some of the follow-on forces would be re-tasked.
 
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Originally Posted by Rich Rostrom

In Berlin, the neo-German regime is in despair. It seemed nothing would shake the Allied insistence on unconditional surrender. Stauffenberg, the most ruthless of the neo-German leaders, proposes offering a separate peace to Stalin, but this is rejected. It is pointed out that if unconditional surrender was inevitable, and it seems that way, there is no point in delaying the surrender. With great bitterness, the neo-German leaders agree to this after another day's debate.

On 26 September Germany announces its surrender effective October 1.


Except that would be stupid for Germany, its people and all its soldiers fighting in the East to order an offical surrender at that time. Conducting a 'retreating campaign' by moving forces East to hold the line against the Soviets as long as possible while the Western Allies take Germany was the way to go until the offical surrender is ordered.

And, yes Stalin still gets an occupation zone, but it would likely be smaller...

That was exactly the sort of trick the western Allies expected and would not tolerate.

Suppose the neo-Germans ordered all troops on the western front to surrender while continuing to fight on the eastern front. The western Allies would not only drive their troops forward at full speed, they would continue the air war against German communications and bases in the homeland and the east.

German troops in the east have already retreated pretty much to the borders of Germany. The front runs from Prussia, to Warsaw, to upper Silesia, across Czechoslovakia, to Vienna, then west along the Alps.

This is actually a fairly defensible perimeter, with all the troops that have been extracted from Greece, Courland, and other remote places to hold it.

But if western Allied troops are sweeping across Germany, and Allied bombers are laying waste to eastern Germany, German troops in the east don't have either motivation or ability to resist the Soviets effectively. The eastern front will dissolve. And since it will dissolve in battle, the Soviets will come in shooting. Lots of casualties and destruction.

Better to end the fighting in one move.

In any case, the German surrender is announced five days before it takes effect - which allows Germans in the east an opportunity to evacuate before the Soviets take over.

As for the Soviet occupation zone - it wouldn't be much smaller than OTL, if at all, and the idea of the western Allies threatening to evict the Soviets for misconduct is laughable. They couldn't do it and wouldn't much care.
 
That was exactly the sort of trick the western Allies expected and would not tolerate.

Suppose the neo-Germans ordered all troops on the western front to surrender while continuing to fight on the eastern front. The western Allies would not only drive their troops forward at full speed, they would continue the air war against German communications and bases in the homeland and the east.

German troops in the east have already retreated pretty much to the borders of Germany. The front runs from Prussia, to Warsaw, to upper Silesia, across Czechoslovakia, to Vienna, then west along the Alps.

This is actually a fairly defensible perimeter, with all the troops that have been extracted from Greece, Courland, and other remote places to hold it.

But if western Allied troops are sweeping across Germany, and Allied bombers are laying waste to eastern Germany, German troops in the east don't have either motivation or ability to resist the Soviets effectively. The eastern front will dissolve. And since it will dissolve in battle, the Soviets will come in shooting. Lots of casualties and destruction.

Better to end the fighting in one move.

In any case, the German surrender is announced five days before it takes effect - which allows Germans in the east an opportunity to evacuate before the Soviets take over.

As for the Soviet occupation zone - it wouldn't be much smaller than OTL, if at all, and the idea of the western Allies threatening to evict the Soviets for misconduct is laughable. They couldn't do it and wouldn't much care.

The Western Allies would be fools in my opinion to not accept battlefield surrenders in the West so as to see they get as deep as possible into central Europe. Mind you they certainly might not do it, but if they did they would be able to keep several million Eastern Europeans (non-Germans) out of Stalin's grasp and really have influence in limiting the power of USSR in the Cold War that anyone that could see political reality like Churchill knew would be coming.
 
Anyhow, *Potsdam would Be at the Date of Yalta (if Not earlier) WAllies certainly having liberated Berlin, Vienna and Prague (Not stalled West of the Rhine). Churchill would attend instead of Atlee, Roosevelt instead of Truman.
That guarantees butterflies.

The Zone-Protocol was Not fixed before Sep 12th, 1944-it could Be Held in limbo for a while here.

The Situation in Poland might Be different (=>Warsaw uprising), also there might Be a Government in Prague calling loudly for American occupation. Even if Germany Gets occupied As in OTL, this will cost Stalin bargaining Chips elsewhere.
 
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