July 1914- the Italians lay down an ultimatium

[Aphrodite]

Our POD is that after the Serbian response to the Austrian note, the Italians tell the Germans

"In the opinion of the Italian government, the Serbian response is acceptable. If Austria rejects the response of the Serbian government, the Kingdom of Italy will join France and Russia's efforts to prevent the Austrians from modifying the Serbian reply by force of arms if necessary."

Italy is motivated to give this note after having reached a side deal with Russia and Serbia that Italy gets a protectorate over Albania if it works.

Do the Germans force the Austrians to back down? Do the Austrians turn on Italy? How does this change Britain's position

 

[raharris1973]

Very creative idea!

 

[marathag]

Italy would be seen as even more of a miserable turncoat of an Ally.

 

[Mackus]

Well, we have to keep in mind that many within Germany, including kaiser Wilhelm, though Serbian reply was acceptable. There were those in Austria-Hungary who didn't want war either, such as count Tisza.
They might back off, if Italians words ultimatum in such a way the won't get offended: so warmongers will see that their cassus belli is insufficient to not be seen as an aggressor. But there is no guarantee of that.

 

[BooNZ]

Well, we have to keep in mind that many within Germany, including kaiser Wilhelm, though Serbian reply was acceptable. There were those in Austria-Hungary who didn't want war either, such as count Tisza.
They might back off, if Italians words ultimatum in such a way the won't get offended: so warmongers will see that their cassus belli is insufficient to not be seen as an aggressor. But there is no guarantee of that.

Kaiser Wilhelm also suggested it would be necessary for A-H to occupy Belgrade to ensure the Serbians kept their word, so not exactly two thumbs up to the Serbian response.

 

[Aphrodite]

Well, we have to keep in mind that many within Germany, including kaiser Wilhelm, though Serbian reply was acceptable. There were those in Austria-Hungary who didn't want war either, such as count Tisza.
They might back off, if Italians words ultimatum in such a way the won't get offended: so warmongers will see that their cassus belli is insufficient to not be seen as an aggressor. But there is no guarantee of that.

The Italians aare being polite by sending the messae to Germany. By doing so, they aren't making an ultimatum but are informing their ally of their position

Kaiser Wilhelm also suggested it would be necessary for A-H to occupy Belgrade to ensure the Serbians kept their word, so not exactly two thumbs up to the Serbian response.

The Austrians get nothing more than the Serbian reply. No Belgrade, no nothing. The Italians don't give a hoot about the Austrians because the Austrians didn't consult them before sending the note. In OTL, the Italians formula for the crisis was that Serbia should accept the note and that its compliance with the note would be up to the Great Powers

Here, the intention is to stop the Austrians The Austrians get Serbia's response and token cooperation and the Italians get Albania

 

[ShortsBelfast]

OTOH the Austrians genuinely were the aggrieved party OTL insofar as Serbian Military Intelligence was deeply involved in the assassination plot. If military action had been delayed and results of an investigation (even only the investigation on Austrian soil) published, Serbia would have ended up looking like a rogue state in the eyes of world public opinion and Russia would have had to deny any collision in the assassination of the heir to the Austrian throne. Russia had no actual treaty with Serbia and if Nicholas was humiliated internationally (and would have had strong personal reasons for opposing royal assasination as a tool of statecraft in any case) Hartwig could have been withdrawn and subsequent support more tepid. France and Britain might even have gotten the idea that Austria had legitimate cause for a police action in Serbia
Austria even more pissed at the Italians bottlenecking the Adriatic and Greece and Bulgaria pissed at Italian presence in Albania. Serbs not that well pleased either -got away with assassinating Franz Ferdinand (kind of, but in bad odour internationally and their Russian protector has distanced themselves somewhat and drawn some lines in the sand, no unconditional support in a further crisis) but now instead of neighbouring one much greater power sandwiched between two again. WWI starts in 1916 with the Third Balkan War between Austria, Greece and Bulgaria vs. Serbia and Italy drawing in other protagonists. Or, if Nicholas' domestic problems had gotten more serious by then, remained the Third Balkan War

 

[ShortsBelfast]

Oh and Germany realises that Italy is not a reliable ally and adjusts its own foreign policy accordingly

 

[MichaelWest]

Unlike other crisis that occurred in Europe between Great Powers, the instance of regicide here must have shaded the responses, I have read that Wilhelm in particular took it as a great affront to civilization and this likely pushed him to be more belligerent. It is obvious that Austria wanted justice but I think it is interesting how they did not go truly crazy over it, I think that deeper goals regarding the Balkans generally and Serbia in particular drove the attempt to subdue Serbia. One would assume that Nicholas of all the monarchs would be most offended and perhaps he was but I think his government was oblivious to any such worries. As much as I might like to think that the assassination of Ferdinand was just cause for a war, the underlying tone was that this war had more influence from existing agendas, f it was a spark then it was in a very flammable ground. I think Italy was within its rights to assert that the alliance was defensive, it was shady to deny that Russia had a hand and her pre-mobilization was not just the threat the alliance intended to respond to. Italian antagonism with A-H was not insurmountable but she was an unreliable ally. I think giving a clear indication of her position might cool things but it does not feel certain that we can avoid the war on this one leg. I think it is one of those minor points that could start something bigger but we need more.

 

[Mackus]

The Italians don't give a hoot about the Austrians because the Austrians didn't consult them before sending the note.

I think Italy was within its rights to assert that the alliance was defensive

Those are most important points regarding supposed Italian "unreliability". Italy and Austria had alliance, but alliance wasn't blank check. Italy wasn't honorbound to commit suicide for Austrian pride, and certainly not irrespectively of Austrian behaviour towards them, and Austrians didn't behave like allies ought to.

That being said, Serbs rejected the one point of ultimatum they shouldn't have rejected if they wanted to pretend they genuinely wanted to apologise.

 

[RossN]

Those are most important points regarding supposed Italian "unreliability". Italy and Austria had alliance, but alliance wasn't blank check. Italy wasn't honorbound to commit suicide for Austrian pride, and certainly not irrespectively of Austrian behaviour towards them, and Austrians didn't behave like allies ought to.

That being said, Serbs rejected the one point of ultimatum they shouldn't have rejected if they wanted to pretend they genuinely wanted to apologise.

I think there is a bit of a difference between letting one's ally know you won't support them on a certain path and actively threatening them as per the OP.

 

[Mackus]

I think there is a bit of a difference between letting one's ally know you won't support them on a certain path and actively threatening them as per the OP.

I was talking about OTL.

 

[trajen777]

In the Shlief plan, a large Italian army was to transfer to the AL area to help defend Germany while the majority of the German army wheeled through Belgium. So under Moltke you see that this had fallen away in that the belief was Italy would not enter the war.
So if Italy had made this demand i think the impact would be that Germany would not have given the blank check. It would have created a situation where everyone would have had to think things thru pre action taking place
1. Their is a hi prob that a great powers conference would have happened.
2. An international investigation would have been initiated. (the kaiser was ecstatic that AH had won a great diplomatic victory without the war)
3. The entende would have expired in 15 or 16.
4. Germany and England were coming closer together (visit by Kasier to England), as demonstrated by GB fleet visit to Germany warmly received Germany more or less giving up the naval race by 09.
5. GB getting more nervous about Russian growth by 15 - 16 and becoming more neutral or pro German.

 

[Aphrodite]

Italy would be seen as even more of a miserable turncoat of an Ally.

Oh and Germany realises that Italy is not a reliable ally and adjusts its own foreign policy accordingly

I think there is a bit of a difference between letting one's ally know you won't support them on a certain path and actively threatening them as per the OP.

We should address the issue of Italy being an unreliable or backstabbing "ally" here.

The Triple Alliance was very clear: If either Italy or Austria moved to even the temporary occupation of Balkan territory the other was entitled to compensation Even if all Austria did was to occupy Belgrade as a guarantee that Serbia complied, the Italians were entitled to compensation. Austria never made such an offer or even consulted with Italy over protecting Italian Balkan interests.

It is Austria that stabbed Italy in the back and they paid the price

As to the "justice of the Austrian cause"

Everyone thought that Austria was entitled to compensation. They also believed that the Serbian note provided that satisfaction. No one thought the Austrian cause just after the Serbian response and that included the Kaiser. While punishing Serbia was acceptable to a point, no one was going to allow the Austrians to use it as an excuse to upset the balance of power of Europe.

 

[PuffyClouds]

Oh and Germany realises that Italy is not a reliable ally and adjusts its own foreign policy accordingly

Or maybe, and happily so, Germany realizes the ghastly implication of the communion of modern industry with war and seeks to deftly navigate the beautifully built yacht of European Civilization between the shoals of jingoism and greed.

 

[pattersonautobody]

Well, we have to keep in mind that many within Germany, including kaiser Wilhelm, though Serbian reply was acceptable. There were those in Austria-Hungary who didn't want war either, such as count Tisza.
They might back off, if Italians words ultimatum in such a way the won't get offended: so warmongers will see that their cassus belli is insufficient to not be seen as an aggressor. But there is no guarantee of that.

I agree. I don't think Austria really thought a huge war would start over Serbia. After all, there were wars in the Balkans between 1910-14 without a world war erupting.

 

[BooNZ]

In the Shlief plan, a large Italian army was to transfer to the AL area to help defend Germany while the majority of the German army wheeled through Belgium. So under Moltke you see that this had fallen away in that the belief was Italy would not enter the war.
So if Italy had made this demand i think the impact would be that Germany would not have given the blank check. It would have created a situation where everyone would have had to think things thru pre action taking place

I think the POD is after the German blank cheque has been issued and cashed by A-H and the Serbs are already in receipt of blank cheques from both Russia and France.

1. Their is a hi prob that a great powers conference would have happened.
2. An international investigation would have been initiated. (the kaiser was ecstatic that AH had won a great diplomatic victory without the war)
3. The entende would have expired in 15 or 16.
4. Germany and England were coming closer together (visit by Kasier to England), as demonstrated by GB fleet visit to Germany warmly received Germany more or less giving up the naval race by 09.
5. GB getting more nervous about Russian growth by 15 - 16 and becoming more neutral or pro German.

The first point is open to debate, but the balance is reasonable. If the July crisis was peacefully resolved, I believe both Britain and France would have turned their backs on Poincare/Russian adventurism in the Balkans - including Serbia.

We should address the issue of Italy being an unreliable or backstabbing "ally" here.

Then you really need to address the 1902 secret treaty between Italy and France. Secretly ratified soon after the renewal of the Triple Alliance, it made it very unlikely Italy would abide by its commitments to the Triple Alliance.

 

[LordKalvan]

The Triple Pact was defensive only: it could not be invoked if one of the members started an aggression,
The relations between A-H and Italy had never been good from the start, and generally they spoke to each other through the Germans.
With the new century the lack of amicability had become something much worse.
The Austrian annexation of Bosnia in 1907 should have automatically resulted in a compensation for Italy in the Balkans. Nothing happened.
During the joint naval expedition to Albania in 1913 a "hot" incident almost happened between the Austrian and the Italian contingents.
In the same year the discussion for joint naval operations in the Mediterranean came to nothing, notwithstanding the attempt of Germany to mediate (Germany had planned a concentration of naval forces in Sicily under Italian command).
During the war of Libya in 1911 A-H strongly supported the Ottomans, and tried to have a conference of the Powers to stop Italian occupation.
Finally between July 1914 and March 1915 during the negotiations for an Italian entry in the war A-H never accepted to give anything to Italy other than what might be grabbed from the French.

IMHO, there was hardly a chance that Austria and Italy could be on the same side in a war, and there is no case that Italy "betrayed" an ally.

 

[raharris1973]

Bulgaria pissed at Italian presence in Albania.

Why does Bulgaria care?

 

[raharris1973]

The Austrian annexation of Bosnia in 1907 should have automatically resulted in a compensation for Italy in the Balkans.

The compensation had to be in the Balkans? The Austrians couldn't have said, "and we think with Turkish maladministration in Tripoli it would be a fine time for Italy to knock itself out fixing the place" and thereby come into compliance?