Julio-Claudian PODs?

You can be sure that Suetonius' writings about Livia is mere calomny.

If Augustus had had the least doubt about his wife plotting the murder of his chosen political heir, he would have dealt very swiftly with her. Augustus did not hesitate a second when he discovered that his own only daughter was plotting against him.

Augustus had, as a tough, made very clear that he would never hesitate to eliminate any lieutenant or friend that would but consider betraying him.

It is quite certain that neither young Marcellus, not young Gaius Caesar and Lucius Caesar were poisoned. They died young as many people died young, because they had a poor health of caught a had disesase of were not properly curée.

Concerning young Marcellus, Ronald Syme has very convincingly developed the hypothesis that during the crisis of 23BCE, Augustus' key allies and supporters convinced him that he could not decently have such a young man as Marcellus (19 years old) being so visibly his heir apparent because it would ruin the so-called restoration of the republic.
And when Augustus almost died of disesase, he did not designate Marcellus but Agrippa.
 
I strongly doubt Germanicus would have been a good emperor. What you can read between the lines is that his germanic campaigns were a huge waste of resources and energy. And as far as "home" politics are concerned, he embodied the anthonian way of doing politics, that is the openly monarchic and orientalizing way. He was certainly a strong inspiration for his son Caligula, as well as Caligula's great-grandfather Anthony was (Caligula forbade people to remind him that Marcus Vipsanius Agrippa was his grandfather and refused to celebrate the memory of the battle of Actium).
No it wasn't. Rome lost face after the Battle of Teutoburg. The German victory may have lead to an increse in barbarian incursions. Germanicus' punitive expeditio was the correct thing to do from Rome's perspective and he did it well.
 
No it wasn't. Rome lost face after the Battle of Teutoburg. The German victory may have lead to an increse in barbarian incursions. Germanicus' punitive expeditio was the correct thing to do from Rome's perspective and he did it well.
In any case the only thing there who was of Germanicus' doing was the fighting. He was not there of his idea and had not the power of decide the main direction of the campaign who were both decided by the Emperor in Rome...
And Matteo I wish to know your fount about Germanicus because I never heard anything like that about him.

Livia in any case had a lot of power of her own and Augustus needed her and Agrippa so he needed more than suspicions for going against them...
Julia sure was Augustus' only child but was also only a pawn for him and was not conforming to his ideals... And likely she was not plotting against him in any case but she and her circle of friends weren't exactly fan of Augustus policies and likely also Julia wished to (divorce from the retired to Rodi Tiberius, if they were still married) marry Iullus Antonius, Mark Antony's only surviving son and that was something out of discussion for both Augustus and Livia (while Iullus was Octavia step-son and also son-in-law (he had married Marcella Maior after Agrippa and Julia's wedding) Augustus' daughter was off-limits for him)
 
In my opinion, a lot could be done with Caligula as well.
Caligula's reputation is largely the result of the senatorial aristocracies loathing of him. Which, I mean, from their perspective, I don't blame them, he didn't hold them in high regard either. A lot of the tails about him are at best misinterpreted, and at worst heavily exaggerated or non-existent. He was far from a great emperor, and it is true his managing of the public finances was not good. But he had a method to his rule, and an end he was working towards, and that included sidelining the senate in appearance, as well as in practice. AFAIK, he was actually fairly popular among the common citizenry.
I strongly doubt Germanicus would have been a good emperor. What you can read between the lines is that his germanic campaigns were a huge waste of resources and energy. And as far as "home" politics are concerned, he embodied the anthonian way of doing politics, that is the openly monarchic and orientalizing way. He was certainly a strong inspiration for his son Caligula, as well as Caligula's great-grandfather Anthony was (Caligula forbade people to remind him that Marcus Vipsanius Agrippa was his grandfather and refused to celebrate the memory of the battle of Actium).
Yes, I agree with Germanicus. He wouldn't have been a bad emperor per say, but it's hard to see him being a good one. His military reputation is overrated, as evidenced by his nearly walking into the same ambush Varrus fell for with Ariminius. He supposedly had quite a temper on him as well.
Let's list out potential Augustus succession PoDs I can think of.

Potential successors are - Marcellus, Gaius, Lucius, Drusus the Elder and then Tiberius. I am ignoring the ones like Agrippa Posthumus that fell out of Augustus's favor. Given the kind of shrewd and astute politician he was, if someone fell out of his favor in matters of succession it was probably for good cause. (Augustus Fan-boy alert :p)

First to die was Marcellus, his nephew. While Marcellus was a good choice and he almost succeeded Augustus when the latter almost died of a sudden illness in 23BC, it wouldn't have been a smooth succession. The senators weren't as thoroughly cowed as they would be in about say a decade and half later. He was however young and unproven at that time and moreover his succession would've raised too many eyebrows about the monarchic nature of the succession. So his succession was going to be problematic even later on, that is, if he had survived. He of course didn't and he died in the same year (23BC) presumably because Livia, Augustus's wife, had him poisoned.
It is possible that it was not Livia but someone else. Agrippa (Augustus's general) and Maecenas (Augustus's advisor) both did not favor Marcellus along side Livia. It will be quite difficult for Marcellus to consolidate his succession when the three closest and most influential people in Augustus's life where antagonistic to his succession.

Then came Lucius. He fell 'suddenly and gravely' ill on August 20th 4CE. Possibly the handiwork of Livia.

And two years later followed Gaius who died from injuries sustained in battle in Armenia on February 21st 4CE.

If Gaius and Lucius survived they would've made a formidable duo to succeed Augustus. By all accounts Gaius was competent and was favored by Augustus to succeed. It was his death that paved the way for Tiberius.

Finally there was Drussus the Elder. He literally fell off a horse and died in the spring of 9BC in Germany. If he had survived, Germania up till the Elbe/Albis was going to be Roman land. That was his conquest and his older brother Tiberius adored him. If Drussus was around, the whole Teutoburg Wald debacle would not have happened. And Tiberius or Drussus, whoever succeeded Augustus would definitely at the very least hold on to Germania Superior.

I sometimes wonder if Western Germany was turned into a Roman province and settled by wave after wave of Roman veteran legionnaires who gradually assimilated the local Germanic tribes in the Roman towns then how different would the history of Rome would've been. It would've definitely been a well developed and fortified buffer to the Migratiory tribes later on. The tribes would have to cross this land before they could reach the heart of the empire in Gaul and Italia. Not to mention many of the major tribes that migrated into and settled in Roman territory originiated from the Western Part of Germany.

A wild card successor would be Marcus Vipsanius Agrippa becoming the next Emperor in the event of the sudden death of Augustus. Sometime between 23BC when Marcellus died and 5 BC when Gaius and Lucius, children of Agrippa where designated as successors of Augustus, provided Agrippa survived beyond 12BC when he died in OTL. Perhaps if he lived for a decade more, Livia wouldn't have dared to plot against Gaius and Lucius.

If Agrippa and his sons with Augustus's sister Gaius and Lucius outlived Augustus then certainly Tiberius and Drussus would've been sidelined in the raced to succeed Augustus.

All of these PODs are good stuff ( my personal preference is for Octavian to strangle Livia as soon as practical, preferably in a drunken rage when he discovers one of her more heinous plots) but there is a big How lurking.

How do you change the character of these characters? What backstory events transpire to cause them to be less stupid/cruel/greedy/short-sighted, etc, especially considering the background and whole social atmosphere of Imperial Rome as stupid-cruel-greedy-shortsighted?
Livia wasn't half the mastermind people make her out to be. Politically astute? Yes, but a lot of women at the time were politically astute. There is a tendency among ancient Roman historians though to blame anything bad or suspicious that happens on a women mastermind, and that is largely a result of the misogyny in Roman culture. More likely, all of them just died naturally, of sickness or wounds, that were not caught quick enough or were untreatable by Roman medical standards.
No it wasn't. Rome lost face after the Battle of Teutoburg. The German victory may have lead to an increse in barbarian incursions. Germanicus' punitive expeditio was the correct thing to do from Rome's perspective and he did it well.
It's debatable. Germanicus's expedition didn't really achieve anything, and it nearly ended in disaster. It was also done expressly against the wishes of Tiberius.


Anyway, someone mentioned upthread about Drusus living. Drusus living presents an interesting dynamic, because there's an argument to be made that Augustus never intended to delegate power to one single all powerful successor. His system of slowly promoting Agrippa, Tiberius, Drusus, Marcellus, Gaius, and Lucius, seems to point to an interest in having a number of "successors" that share equal political power. Similar to how he shared power with Agrippa (It's been awhile, but IIRC, this is more or less Adrian Goldsworthy's view in his biography of Augustus). He just had the misfortune of everyone dying before him except for Tiberius, leaving him as the sole "heir".

In any case, a large reason for Teutoburg was the Great Illyrian Revolt forced Augustus to recall Tiberius and his legions from Germania, who was at the time the only real competent military figure active in the empire. This allowed for a militarily inexperienced administrator to get sent to Germania with less than ideal forces. If Drusus is alive, Tiberius can be sent to Illyria, while Drusus holds down the fort in Germania. He was by all accounts a very effective military commander, so it's highly unlikely he falls to the same tricks as Varus did.
 
Can't believe I missed this; just starting I Claudius myself. I will also say the idea of Gaius (son of Agrippa and Julia) surviving is an idea that has long intrigued me.
 
I Claudius is a great classic. But It is almost pure Suetonius.

The Rome series was a disaster.

Paradoxically, good series or movies about Rome are extremely rare.

What has been missing is one from the emperor's and their many loyal, even enthusiastic supporters.

My top 3 is :
- the movie Cleopatra in which Rex Harrison is probably the best-ever Caesar, although the exagerated love affair with Cleopatra spoils a bit the movie and misses the real point of the political dimension of Caesar's relationship with the queen of Egypt who, although his mistress, was also kind of kept captive at Rome while Caesar's men run Egypt.
- I Claudius, with a great casting,
- and the Spartacus series. Although fights are of course exagerated and far too Gore, the package is really good.
 
I Claudius is a great classic. But It is almost pure Suetonius.

The Rome series was a disaster.

Paradoxically, good series or movies about Rome are extremely rare.

What has been missing is one from the emperor's and their many loyal, even enthusiastic supporters.

My top 3 is :
- the movie Cleopatra in which Rex Harrison is probably the best-ever Caesar, although the exagerated love affair with Cleopatra spoils a bit the movie and misses the real point of the political dimension of Caesar's relationship with the queen of Egypt who, although his mistress, was also kind of kept captive at Rome while Caesar's men run Egypt.
- I Claudius, with a great casting,
- and the Spartacus series. Although fights are of course exagerated and far too Gore, the package is really good.
Wait how is Spartacus better then Rome?
 
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