Julio-Claudian PODs?

So, I've been reading I, Claudius by Robert Graves, and it's very well written and entertaining (even if it is effectively charismatic gossip with a narrator) and it's certainly a good primer on Roman history.

So, anyway, I was thinking about some good PODs with everyone's favorite imperial dynasty (sorry, Flavians). Any thoughts on what some might be? An idea I had had was that Claudius' second betrothed survives the bizarre death that claimed her on Claudius' wedding day, and marries him.
 
Drusus Julius Caesar is made aware of Sejanus' intentions of murdering him. Despite Drusus being a heavy drinker, having a bad temper, and not being connected to the Julians, it could be an interesting series of events if he lives.
 
After the death of Germanicus, I believe so. Drusus' death had a strong effect on his father and, if he survived, Tiberius probably wouldn't have been as much of a recluse. However, I recall reading from a source (Wikipedia mentions it as well but I take a lot of info from that site with a grain of salt) that Tiberius possibly did not want to be emperor.
 
Nero Claudius Drusus lives and succeeds Octavius. Nero Claudius' son Germanicus succeeds him. Germanicus' son Nero Caesar succeeds him.

Tiberius and Claudius are able administrators that find quiet dignity in helping their Princep brothers. Caligula is quietly retired to an island villa owned by Tiberius and his wife Vipsania, where he is privately and cared for by his loving family. Sejanus gets curbstomped, and the Praetorian Guard is checked very early on.

Nero Claudius Drusus and Drusus Caesar are able generals that work with other greats such as Vespasian to help maintain and grow the Principate. Roman clients in Mauretania, Aksum, Arabia, Armenia, and Britain provide friendly and prosperous borders. Institutionalized military education and a robust economy proves an able check on westward Persian ambition. Adept diplomacy prevents a collapse of the central European frontier in the face of the great eurasian migrations.

Trans-saharan trade encourages the development of a wealthy kingdom in western Africa. But the potential for trade lane pandemics is very great now, so the Third Century may still see a crisis. If places like Byzantium aren't destroyed by people like Septimus Severus though, the Rome that is reforged from the crisis may be a more noble, more resilient, and more advanced state.
 
Ooh, interesting. That would certainly boggle up the successions. Were there non-survivng sons? What were their names?
As far as I know they had no children apart from a single miscarriage I don't know what the gender was. but if he has a son Augustus would probably address of succession sooner something that would save Rome no end of trouble in the long run.
 
So, I've been reading I, Claudius by Robert Graves, and it's very well written and entertaining (even if it is effectively charismatic gossip with a narrator) and it's certainly a good primer on Roman history.

So, anyway, I was thinking about some good PODs with everyone's favorite imperial dynasty (sorry, Flavians). Any thoughts on what some might be? An idea I had had was that Claudius' second betrothed survives the bizarre death that claimed her on Claudius' wedding day, and marries him.

I loved that book!
 
Nero Claudius Drusus lives and succeeds Octavius. Nero Claudius' son Germanicus succeeds him. Germanicus' son Nero Caesar succeeds him.

Tiberius and Claudius are able administrators that find quiet dignity in helping their Princep brothers. Caligula is quietly retired to an island villa owned by Tiberius and his wife Vipsania, where he is privately and cared for by his loving family. Sejanus gets curbstomped, and the Praetorian Guard is checked very early on.

Nero Claudius Drusus and Drusus Caesar are able generals that work with other greats such as Vespasian to help maintain and grow the Principate. Roman clients in Mauretania, Aksum, Arabia, Armenia, and Britain provide friendly and prosperous borders. Institutionalized military education and a robust economy proves an able check on westward Persian ambition. Adept diplomacy prevents a collapse of the central European frontier in the face of the great eurasian migrations.

Trans-saharan trade encourages the development of a wealthy kingdom in western Africa. But the potential for trade lane pandemics is very great now, so the Third Century may still see a crisis. If places like Byzantium aren't destroyed by people like Septimus Severus though, the Rome that is reforged from the crisis may be a more noble, more resilient, and more advanced state.

I strongly doubt Germanicus would have been a good emperor. What you can read between the lines is that his germanic campaigns were a huge waste of resources and energy. And as far as "home" politics are concerned, he embodied the anthonian way of doing politics, that is the openly monarchic and orientalizing way. He was certainly a strong inspiration for his son Caligula, as well as Caligula's great-grandfather Anthony was (Caligula forbade people to remind him that Marcus Vipsanius Agrippa was his grandfather and refused to celebrate the memory of the battle of Actium).
 
I strongly doubt Germanicus would have been a good emperor. What you can read between the lines is that his germanic campaigns were a huge waste of resources and energy. And as far as "home" politics are concerned, he embodied the anthonian way of doing politics, that is the openly monarchic and orientalizing way. He was certainly a strong inspiration for his son Caligula, as well as Caligula's great-grandfather Anthony was (Caligula forbade people to remind him that Marcus Vipsanius Agrippa was his grandfather and refused to celebrate the memory of the battle of Actium).

That may be, but he wasn't cruel, and he certainly wasn't as bad as Tiberius of Caligula. Also, Germanicus surviving probably means Caligula doesn't become so fucked up.
 
But Tiberius was a great soldier and emperor.

And the only reason why he is described as cruel is that he had to defend himself against what could have been called the legitimist Julian party.

Tiberius was not a Julian. He had not an ounce of Julian blood in his veins.

And he had to face then young ambitious Germanicus who probably was something close to an arrogant prock willing to mimick his dead grandfather (Anthony) and his dead father (Drusus) and who regularly sent the subliminal message that he was the real legitimate heir since Augustus had forced his adoption on Tiberius, since his grandmother was Augustus' sister Octavia (that is someone who had the divine blood of the Julii into her veins) and since he was married to Augustus' granddaughter Agrippina and that they fathered the grandchildren of Augustus.

Then he had to face Agrippina's barely veiled opposition and conspiracies, Agrippina's subliminal message being "you, Tiberius, are but notary, the executor of my divine grandfather's will that my sons should rule the empire."

The point is that nobody expexted Tiberius to live so old. He was 55 years old when Augustus died and, having a rather poor health, was supposed to live no more than 10 years.

The reason for Tiberius' bad reputation is to a large extent the consequence of this feud between the political-institutional-republican logic of the Augustan regime, and its dynastic veiled logic.

And the fact is that Rome's conception of imperium, which means of power, had always been absolute. Imperium was not limited by itself. It was limited in the republican era through a colleague's or a tribune's veto, or through the Senate's Auctoritas.
Nobody could bear that an aristocrat challenge the emperor's authority and legitimacy. An aristocrat had the right to advise the emperor, not to question his authority or his legitimacy, otherwise it called for overthrowing and killing the emperor or executing those who plotted to, or for a civil war.

Now, if you consider the situation of the roman empire when Tiberius died, it was very good. The treasury was full.

Caligula emptied the treasury in just a few years, without even fighting a big war. That's why he was so popular with the roman Plebs in the first year of his reign. My assessment is that Caligula had inherited all Augustus' and Anthony's weaknesses but lacked many of their qualities.
 
But Tiberius was a great soldier and emperor.

And the only reason why he is described as cruel is that he had to defend himself against what could have been called the legitimist Julian party.

Tiberius was not a Julian. He had not an ounce of Julian blood in his veins.

And he had to face then young ambitious Germanicus who probably was something close to an arrogant prock willing to mimick his dead grandfather (Anthony) and his dead father (Drusus) and who regularly sent the subliminal message that he was the real legitimate heir since Augustus had forced his adoption on Tiberius, since his grandmother was Augustus' sister Octavia (that is someone who had the divine blood of the Julii into her veins) and since he was married to Augustus' granddaughter Agrippina and that they fathered the grandchildren of Augustus.

Then he had to face Agrippina's barely veiled opposition and conspiracies, Agrippina's subliminal message being "you, Tiberius, are but notary, the executor of my divine grandfather's will that my sons should rule the empire."

The point is that nobody expexted Tiberius to live so old. He was 55 years old when Augustus died and, having a rather poor health, was supposed to live no more than 10 years.

The reason for Tiberius' bad reputation is to a large extent the consequence of this feud between the political-institutional-republican logic of the Augustan regime, and its dynastic veiled logic.

And the fact is that Rome's conception of imperium, which means of power, had always been absolute. Imperium was not limited by itself. It was limited in the republican era through a colleague's or a tribune's veto, or through the Senate's Auctoritas.
Nobody could bear that an aristocrat challenge the emperor's authority and legitimacy. An aristocrat had the right to advise the emperor, not to question his authority or his legitimacy, otherwise it called for overthrowing and killing the emperor or executing those who plotted to, or for a civil war.

Now, if you consider the situation of the roman empire when Tiberius died, it was very good. The treasury was full.

Caligula emptied the treasury in just a few years, without even fighting a big war. That's why he was so popular with the roman Plebs in the first year of his reign. My assessment is that Caligula had inherited all Augustus' and Anthony's weaknesses but lacked many of their qualities.

None of that excuses the Treason Trials. Tiberius was probably better than Tacitus makes him out to be, but he still killed massive amounts of people after show trials. I hate show trials.
 
Sure. But which Julio-Claudian emperor had more people executed, often without trial, be it show trial or not, considering that anyway political trials have never ever been "fair" ?
 
Let's list out potential Augustus succession PoDs I can think of.

Potential successors are - Marcellus, Gaius, Lucius, Drusus the Elder and then Tiberius. I am ignoring the ones like Agrippa Posthumus that fell out of Augustus's favor. Given the kind of shrewd and astute politician he was, if someone fell out of his favor in matters of succession it was probably for good cause. (Augustus Fan-boy alert :p)

First to die was Marcellus, his nephew. While Marcellus was a good choice and he almost succeeded Augustus when the latter almost died of a sudden illness in 23BC, it wouldn't have been a smooth succession. The senators weren't as thoroughly cowed as they would be in about say a decade and half later. He was however young and unproven at that time and moreover his succession would've raised too many eyebrows about the monarchic nature of the succession. So his succession was going to be problematic even later on, that is, if he had survived. He of course didn't and he died in the same year (23BC) presumably because Livia, Augustus's wife, had him poisoned.
It is possible that it was not Livia but someone else. Agrippa (Augustus's general) and Maecenas (Augustus's advisor) both did not favor Marcellus along side Livia. It will be quite difficult for Marcellus to consolidate his succession when the three closest and most influential people in Augustus's life where antagonistic to his succession.

Then came Lucius. He fell 'suddenly and gravely' ill on August 20th 4CE. Possibly the handiwork of Livia.

And two years later followed Gaius who died from injuries sustained in battle in Armenia on February 21st 4CE.

If Gaius and Lucius survived they would've made a formidable duo to succeed Augustus. By all accounts Gaius was competent and was favored by Augustus to succeed. It was his death that paved the way for Tiberius.

Finally there was Drussus the Elder. He literally fell off a horse and died in the spring of 9BC in Germany. If he had survived, Germania up till the Elbe/Albis was going to be Roman land. That was his conquest and his older brother Tiberius adored him. If Drussus was around, the whole Teutoburg Wald debacle would not have happened. And Tiberius or Drussus, whoever succeeded Augustus would definitely at the very least hold on to Germania Superior.

I sometimes wonder if Western Germany was turned into a Roman province and settled by wave after wave of Roman veteran legionnaires who gradually assimilated the local Germanic tribes in the Roman towns then how different would the history of Rome would've been. It would've definitely been a well developed and fortified buffer to the Migratiory tribes later on. The tribes would have to cross this land before they could reach the heart of the empire in Gaul and Italia. Not to mention many of the major tribes that migrated into and settled in Roman territory originiated from the Western Part of Germany.

A wild card successor would be Marcus Vipsanius Agrippa becoming the next Emperor in the event of the sudden death of Augustus. Sometime between 23BC when Marcellus died and 5 BC when Gaius and Lucius, children of Agrippa where designated as successors of Augustus, provided Agrippa survived beyond 12BC when he died in OTL. Perhaps if he lived for a decade more, Livia wouldn't have dared to plot against Gaius and Lucius.

If Agrippa and his sons with Augustus's sister Gaius and Lucius outlived Augustus then certainly Tiberius and Drussus would've been sidelined in the raced to succeed Augustus.
 
But... how?

All of these PODs are good stuff ( my personal preference is for Octavian to strangle Livia as soon as practical, preferably in a drunken rage when he discovers one of her more heinous plots) but there is a big How lurking.

How do you change the character of these characters? What backstory events transpire to cause them to be less stupid/cruel/greedy/short-sighted, etc, especially considering the background and whole social atmosphere of Imperial Rome as stupid-cruel-greedy-shortsighted?
 
I have always considered the early death of Gaius Julius Caesar (Agrippa's Son and Augustus's Grandson) as a huge missed opportunity for the Julian Dynasty. He is a largely blank slate but one that the few sources about him describe him as a fairly competent military commander with the necessary charisma to be successful. It will be interesting to see the development of the Princeps with an active military commander as both Augustus and Tiberius largely retired from military command during their Princepships.

Gaius is married to Drusus the Elder's daughter and thus a granddaughter of Livia; furthermore he's descended from two of the most important Romans of the previous generations with his Agrippa connection being a powerful connection to the Plebian Class of Rome. If he is able to produce an heir its possible the concept of a hereditary Julian Dynasty could form. If that eventually becomes the case, is it possible for the Julian Dynasty to end up being considered a divine Royal family as was the case with some Eastern Dynasties?
 
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