Juan of Aragon lives: Castille and Aragon remain separated

From Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germaine_of_Foix#Marriage_to_Ferdinand_and_Queen_of_Aragon

"Following the death of his wife Isabella I, Ferdinand had to yield the government of Castile to his son-in-law Philip of Habsburg (1478-1506), who assumed power in the name of his wife Joanna (1479-1555), Isabella's heiress. Ferdinand objected to Philip's policies and to prevent Philip from gaining Aragon through Joanna, he sought to have a male heir with a new wife. A new male heir would displace Joanna (and by extension her husband) from the line of succession. He negotiated with King Louis XII of France for a marriage, hoping perhaps to salve generally bad French-Aragonese relations. At the Treaty of Blois, Louis agreed to have his niece Germaine of Foix marry Ferdinand...

...Ferdinand and Germaine did have a son, Juan, Prince of Aragon on May 3, 1509, but he died shortly after birth. Despite the use of love potions, they did not have another. If Juan had lived, then the Crown of Aragon would have split from the Crown of Castile once again (after being semi-unified by Ferdinand and Isabella's marriage). This included Aragon, Valencia, and Catalonia in Spain, and the Kingdom of Naples, Kingdom of Sicily and Sardinia in the Italian peninsula and the Tyrrhenian Sea. With Juan's death, both Castile and Aragon would eventually go to Ferdinand and Isabella's daughter Joanna."

So, WI Juan had lived and the Kingdom of Aragon had remained separated from Castille? Ferdinand would die in 1516, and Juan would become a seven-years-old king, probably under the regency of his mother Germaine. What could be their policies regarding France and Castille? And how would this independent Aragon influence the Habsburg-Valois conflict?

Sorry if it was already discussed, but I couldn't find the thread.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germaine_of_Foix#Marriage_to_Ferdinand_and_Queen_of_Aragon
 
Bump!
No idea? I just realized that when Ferdinand dies in 1516 his son would only be seven-years-old, and probably his French mother would be the regent. Would we see Aragon following a pro-French policy against the Habsburgs?
 

maverick

Banned
Well, we might have to look at the economic effects of the Union, but otherwise, this means that Castille keeps the American colonies to herself...

There's of course the issue of the Mediterranean without a united Spain, since Aragon would obviously be in the league against the Ottomans but Castille might not be...

Aragon has little power to oppose both Castille and France, and with a French Regent, we might see Aragon turned into a French puppet/ally through the 16th century.

This way, Aragon would be both a target for invasion come the Franco-Spanish wars or a platform for French use against Spain.

And that is without taking into account the French ambitions regarding Italy...

Castille has access to the mediterranean, but little reason to fight in Italy or against the Ottomans since the Aragonese are also enemies.
 
And that is without taking into account the French ambitions regarding Italy...

Castille has access to the mediterranean, but little reason to fight in Italy or against the Ottomans since the Aragonese are also enemies.

I think Charles V would still try to conquer Milan as IOTL, but without the logistical support from the Aragonese territory in Italy I'm not sure how successful would he be. Of course, he still have the Castillian and Imperial armies, and the resources from the Austrian and American mines.

About the Ottomans, that might be interesting. Without Aragon the Castillians have no need to fight the Ottomans. Instead, as their main target in Africa is Morocco (also an Ottoman enemy by them) they could become allies against the Moroccans. This would be helped if the butterflies make Louis II of Hungary not be killed in Mohacs, giving no reason to the Habsburgs consider the Ottomans a greater threat.
 

maverick

Banned
Indeed...about the Ottomans, with the French allied to Aragon, might we see France and Aragon in an alternate holy league with the Pope and Venice vs the Ottomans?

On the long term, on the other hand, once dynastic marriages begin to kick in, we could see a Franco-Aragonese kingdom in the late 16th century of early to mid 17th century (maybe) and even a Castille-Portuguese Kingdom being the ITTL "Spain"

In any case, this completely changes the dynamics of the Italian wars, with France having strong ally on Italian ground, they could overrun central Italy and move on to Milan in order to fight Charles V there, although this might end with Aragon being overrun herself and the Imperial armies still invading Northern France.

In this alt Italian war of the 1520s, Charles V still wins, takes Milan as IOTL...but how does this affect Aragon and their possessions in Italy?
 
On the long term, on the other hand, once dynastic marriages begin to kick in, we could see a Franco-Aragonese kingdom in the late 16th century of early to mid 17th century (maybe) and even a Castille-Portuguese Kingdom being the ITTL "Spain"

I was trying to find a good French bride for Juan, but it seems that any princess he could marry would be too young or too old. The same happens with the Habsburgs and the Aviz. The best choice I could find was Catherine of Castille, who was two year older than him. IOTL she would marry John III of Portugal, giving origin to the line that would end in Sebastian I. It would be interesting, because John III would need to marry someone else, but there would be no Habsburg princess available. Without this step in the Castillian-Portuguese royal marriages the House of Aviz could maybe survive some more generations.
 
On the Ottoman question it depends a lot of what Charles V does. He neglected the Mediterranean front IOTL, so he might ignore it completely ITTL. However, remember that the Ottomans are going to attack Vienna anyway so the Empire still has a reason to fight the Turks and support any action against them, and there are other ideological reasons to do that anyway; Portugal, after all, never had a port in the Mediterranean, yet it supported the Empire's campaign against the Turks IOTL. In effect, even before the Iberian Union.

I don't think Aragon would break with Charles. Not only there are family ties between them (at this time that still meant something), but the Empire is its most obvious trade partner, and it needs its help to keep away the Ottomans. Also, while the regent might be French, I doubt Aragon can really afford an alliance with France. Not only because that would mean war against the Empire (which can attack Aragon both in Italy and Spain) but also because France is a traditional enemy and a competitor in Italy, and has recurrent ambitions over Catalonia. The way I see this Aragon, it's more like an uber-Venice - sometimes allied with the Empire, sometimes neutral, rarely or never against it... mostly centered on dealing with the Ottoman problem (via war and skilled diplomacy) and avoiding to be drawn into Charles' northern wars.

Then a lot depends if the Maghreb goes Ottoman or not too. It was mostly an Aragonese zone of influence during Ferdinand II's reign. Can Juan III keep it that way? He has less manpower available, but at the same time he has not the obvious central European distractions of Charles V. If it goes Ottoman it's bad for Aragon, if not it's very good news. I'm pretty sure the issue is very complex, but I'm of the oppinion that a lot of why it happened in OTL has a relation with Charles' ineffective Mediterranean policy IOTL. Barbarossa seized Algiers, after all, as a result of a local civil war between pro-Spanish and pro-Turkish factions.

And as a final knock-effect, it's quite possible that the Knights of St. John would never wind up in Malta...
 
I like the idea of Aragon as an uber-Venice. How could be their relation and competition with Venice and Genoa?
 
Top