Juan Carlos pulls a Victor Emmanuel?

Meaning no offense to Juan Carlos - IMO, he's one of the greatest men of the 20th century for his handling of the 1981 coup attempt.

Allow me to present a fairly simple WI - WI in 1981, when the Guardia Civil had its coup attempt, the Spanish king threw his weight entirely behind it. IOTL, his opposition to the coup was a major cause of its failure. Had he supported it, it would certainly have been "more successful," or at least have lasted for a longer period of time.

The two possibilities here seem to be either that fascism is restored in Spain with a successful military insurrection, or else that a violent civil war ensues and the fascist forces are defeated. I think it likely that regardless of the eventual victor there would have been fighting, perhaps an uprising by the Basques or something along those lines. Does anyone think it possible that foreign nations might have intervened in the fighting? If the anti-fascist forces show too strong a Communist influence, it seems possible that Reagan, with his strong commitment to anti-Communism, might have given some US support to the Spanish government. After all, Spain had been friendly to the USA under Frano. In my opinion, even if the US merely did nothing in regards to the fighting in Spain, its status in the eyes of Europe would likely suffer.

Interesting situations exist, with how the various Western European nations might react to this situation. I can see French and West German teenaged Communists trying to sneak into Spain to help the rebels... while at the same time, France elected a Socialist president in 1981. Admitedly, not until May, but still... it'd be interesting to see how a Socialist government in France would react to a second Spanish Civil War.

And, of course, the way in which the USSR reacts to such a situation would be interesting! Once can imagine a sort of propaganda effort - something along the lines of how it's a sign that socialism's time has come in Western Europe.

Speaking of which, I can imagine terrorist activity alone the lines of the German Red Army Faction occurring in "sympathy" with the Spanish anti-Fascists... it could get messy!

Anyways, what do you think about the possibilities?
 

Goldstein

Banned
Meaning no offense to Juan Carlos - IMO, he's one of the greatest men of the 20th century for his handling of the 1981 coup attempt.

Allow me to present a fairly simple WI - WI in 1981, when the Guardia Civil had its coup attempt, the Spanish king threw his weight entirely behind it. IOTL, his opposition to the coup was a major cause of its failure. Had he supported it, it would certainly have been "more successful," or at least have lasted for a longer period of time.

The two possibilities here seem to be either that fascism is restored in Spain with a successful military insurrection, or else that a violent civil war ensues and the fascist forces are defeated. I think it likely that regardless of the eventual victor there would have been fighting, perhaps an uprising by the Basques or something along those lines. Does anyone think it possible that foreign nations might have intervened in the fighting? If the anti-fascist forces show too strong a Communist influence, it seems possible that Reagan, with his strong commitment to anti-Communism, might have given some US support to the Spanish government. After all, Spain had been friendly to the USA under Frano. In my opinion, even if the US merely did nothing in regards to the fighting in Spain, its status in the eyes of Europe would likely suffer.

Interesting situations exist, with how the various Western European nations might react to this situation. I can see French and West German teenaged Communists trying to sneak into Spain to help the rebels... while at the same time, France elected a Socialist president in 1981. Admitedly, not until May, but still... it'd be interesting to see how a Socialist government in France would react to a second Spanish Civil War.

And, of course, the way in which the USSR reacts to such a situation would be interesting! Once can imagine a sort of propaganda effort - something along the lines of how it's a sign that socialism's time has come in Western Europe.

Speaking of which, I can imagine terrorist activity alone the lines of the German Red Army Faction occurring in "sympathy" with the Spanish anti-Fascists... it could get messy!

Anyways, what do you think about the possibilities?


Hi.

In first place, it is very, very dubious that Juan Carlos could have even considered to support the coup (though some people in Spain think that he actually did). By doing that, he would risk to submerge the country in a wave of unstability unseen since 1936, and he would have lost all his legitimacy for millions of Spaniards, not to tell it would be totally contradictory with his former role in the process of democratization. It would take a significantly more stupid king, and his augmented stupidity would generate enough butterflies to prevent the coup.

Also, for the coup to succeed, you would need a perfect coordination and execution, because, mind my words, a civil war was completely out of question, even as a possibility.

The reason is that the idea was tangible and too scary, and almost everybody, from the far right to the far left of the political spectrum, would do whatever it would take to avoid it. Or why do you think the democratic process was so peaceful in first place, or the bunker (the Francoist hard line) accepted their demise?
If the coup is not a decisive success, the insurrects are going to retreat, as they wanted to "save Spain", not to bring a horrible nightmare back.

OTOH, there are some... rumours, about Juan Carlos not being as brave as they told us. I'm sorry, because I cannot prove it in any way, but there are sayings about the king being about to abandon the country until he realized the coup was failing. I know the coup was made for the king; but, according to the sayings, when the insurrects knew about the king being against the coup, they decided to keep their plans indepently, and turn the coup against him, now seen as a traitor.

Of course, this could be false, but I found it very interesting from an allohistorical perspective, because maybe it is the only way of turning the 1981 coup into a success.

One more thing: what the insurects wanted was not merely a fascist dictatorship, but something more insidious: a concentration government, made up by mostly UCD and PSOE members, and with a key military figure as a chief of state. It's not very hard to imagine what would have happened to the communist and nationalist factions.

Another thing to take into consideration: The resulting Spain would be, without any doubt, an international pariah. The EEC, with which Spain was dealing the conditions for her entrance, had openly condemned the coup, and Margaret Thatcher defined the insurrects as terrorists. Reagan's reaction was more prudent, but come on... what was seen as a lesser evil in America's backyard, would never be accepted (not to tell about the public opinion) in the fucking Western Europe.

So what would happen? Even more virulent nationalist and communist terrorist actions, a liberal use of state terrorism, all the cultural and economic advancements of the eighties get reversed, we lose our prestige... basically, shit hits the fan in Spain. I don't really see the regime lasting until today, but the negative effects would be still visible.
 
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