Joseph Ferdinand lives

What would be the geopolitical fallout of Joseph Ferdinand of Bavaria surviving his childhood and ascending the Spanish throne?

(If all goes well, I'm probably gonna write a TL on this)
 
Well, Little is known about his personality, as he died at 6, but it could be very likely Reforms are ignored by the Young bavarian, and Spain succumbs to revolution...
There are probably other scenarios, but I cannot think when I am this tired.
 
Well, Little is known about his personality, as he died at 6, but it could be very likely Reforms are ignored by the Young bavarian, and Spain succumbs to revolution...
There are probably other scenarios, but I cannot think when I am this tired.

One thing would be certain though: Being a compromise candidate means that the succession crisis won't be as bad as OTL. However, the Wittelsbachs may want to push for their young claimant to get the entire Spanish inheritance, which the other European powers were against.
 
From what I know, the British and the French were both planning to Partition the Spanish Empire. Joseph Ferdinand of Bavaria would have received Spain and the Colonies, but the rest (Spanish Netherlands, Milan, Naples, Sicily, Sardinia) would have been split between other possible claimants.

However, I do not know the exact terms are my sources contradict themselves about it... And Wikipedia shows a major flaw: the French version of the Encylcopedia doesn't have the same terms as the English one! Another thing that bugs me is that I saw Tuscany being mentionned and I don't get it: even if they were to die in 1737, there were still Medicis ruling the Grand Duchy by the time of the Partiton Treaty...

From what I understood though, Louis the Grand Dauphin (eldest son of Louis XIV) was supposed to receive Naples & Sicily. Some of my sources say he might also have received Bar & Lorraine from Duke Leopold I in exchange for granting the latter Milan.
Archduke Charles, second son of Holy Roman Emperor Lepold I and later Holy Roman Emperor Charles VI, was to receive something but that remains unclear: it migh either be the Spanish Netherlands or the Duchy of Milan, depending of my sources.

But even with that, the First Partition Treaty wasn't without its flaws: it left the Hapsburg out of it as it was only concluded between Britain and France. The Austrian Hapsburg would have not allowed France to inherit Italian lands as they apparently insisted on Archduke Charles getting all the Italian inheritance OTL during negotiations for the Second Partition Treaty. There is also Charles II of Spain's opinion: he never wished for his Empire to be splitted. Even if he's mad and his opinion doesn't matter much, I believ the last of the Spanish Hapsburg can cause trouble... I thus see three possible scenarios:

1) The First Partition Treaty is applied along its terms.
2) A new Partition Treaty is negotiated between Britain, France and the Austrian Hapsburgs.
3) ATL War of Spanish Succession between those who want a dismembered Spanish Empire (Britain, France) and those who don't.

Whatever the case, we probably end up with a Wittelsbach on the Spanish throne as it would satisfy everyone: the Wittelsbach have connections to both the Bourbons (the wife of the Grand Dauphin was a Wittelsbach) and the Hapsburg (since Joseph Ferdinand is the nephew of Charles II of Spain). The question of a Personnal Union between Bavaria and Spain remains but I'm not sure it would be taken into account: Joseph Ferdinand's father, Elector Maximilian II Emmanuel of Bavaria, remarried and had another son, the Holy Roman Emperor Charles VII (contestant of Maria Theresa & Francis I). Maximilian II of Bavaria could still remarry and father his second son in this scenario : if so, he might choose to have Joseph Ferdinand inherit Spain and his younger son (probably called Charles as OTL) gets Bavaria.
 

Vitruvius

Donor
However, I do not know the exact terms are my sources contradict themselves about it... And Wikipedia shows a major flaw: the French version of the Encylcopedia doesn't have the same terms as the English one! Another thing that bugs me is that I saw Tuscany being mentionned and I don't get it: even if they were to die in 1737, there were still Medicis ruling the Grand Duchy by the time of the Partiton Treaty...

Yorel, I believe the confusion stems from the differences between the First and Second Partition Treaties and usual wiki inaccuracies that crop up now and then. There's a map floating around that illustrates the conditions of both treaties but I don't have it handy though I believe its popped up in threads before. There is another good account of the Treaties here.

Under the First Treaty, The Treaty of the Hague (1698) which is relevant to a discussion of Joseph Ferdinand, JF would get Spain, the Spanish Netherlands, Sardinia and Spanish America. The Grand Dauphin would bet Naples, Sicily and the Presidi. This is where the 'tuscany' comes in. What was meant was not the Grand Duchy of Tuscany but the Spanish held enclaves along its coast collectively known as the State of the Presidi, administered from Naples and hence allotted to the French. The Dauphin was also to receive a portion of Guipuzcoa including San Sebastian. Archduke Charles got only Milan.

Under the Second Treaty, Charles gained JF's share (to keep Spain out of French hands), The Duke of Lorraine was given Milan and the Dauphin picked up Lorraine. Importantly the Treaties were only between France and Britain (and by extension the Netherlands) so Austria and Spain were not consulted. I believe Charles II made Joseph Ferdinand heir to all as he did Philip d'Anjou OTL. But I see no reason for France to go back on the Treaty like they did OTL. OTL they stood to gain more by reneging on the Treaty in favor of Charles II's will which promised the whole of the Spanish Empire. That's not on the table if JF live's and is Charles II's heir.

So I assume that the Wittelsbachs just go along with the Treaty even though Charles II's will gives them claim to even more simply because they don't have the strength to do anything about it. And so if the French don't mess with Spain (and its overseas empire) or the Spanish Netherlands then Britain and the Netherlands have little reason to get involved. But Austria will surely fight because it has outstanding grievances with France, namely over the comparatively recent annexation of Strasbourg and with the defeat of the Ottomans it has a free hand for once. So I'd expect some kind of Austro-French battle over the partition of Italy.

Going back to Tuscany I thought it would be interesting if Joseph Ferdinand married Elisabeth Farnese. They're the same age and Elisabeth is heiress to Parma and Tuscany so she could help to return Spanish power to Italy much as OTL when her children became rulers of Parma, Sicily and Naples. Another thought is that French Guipuzoca, if it happened, would be like British Gibralter and Minorca, a thorn in the side of Spain, albeit on the opposite side. Also if the British stay out of the war then there is no Asiento which will potentially damage the British economy later in the century.
 
Yorel, I believe the confusion stems from the differences between the First and Second Partition Treaties and usual wiki inaccuracies that crop up now and then. There's a map floating around that illustrates the conditions of both treaties but I don't have it handy though I believe its popped up in threads before.

I believe you mean this one ;):

Partition.jpg
 
The main issue with these partition treaty is that two important parties weren't consulted Spain and Austria. The issue with Spain is that they are dividing the Spanish Empire; and Austria, because their ally Britain (& the Netherlands) goes behind their back to get make a favorabe deal for themselves with Austria's rival France.
If Joseph Ferdinand becomes the universal heir, then it might only cause some damage to the diplomatic relations.
However if it comes to a partition, then IMHO Austria should get a bit more to make it acceptable enough for them to avoid a conflict, something like giving them Milan and the Southern Netherlands or the give Milan to the duke of Lorraine & Bar and give the Southern Netherlands and Lorraine & Bar to Charles..
 
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