Johnson vs. Reagan in '68

Lets say Lyndon Johnson decides to run for a second full term. He ends up switching out Humphrey for Robert Kennedy at the convention. His opponent is Ronald Reagan who taps Jacob Javits as his running-mate.


How does the campaign go and who wins the election?
 
I can't see Johnson switching out Humphrey for Robert Kennedy. The big question here is why does Johnson not drop out? Does he just fight his way through it and force his way onto the ticket at the convention? Or was the Vietnam War avoided or won quickly? If the former, it would be a close race Reagan could win. If the latter, Reagan gets crushed.
 

Stolengood

Banned
Reagan probably wins; fucks up America for four years like Barry Goldwater on steroids, gets tossed out on his ear in '72.
 
While a Reagan nomination in 1968 was certainly conceivable, I don't think it was likely. Yes, Reagan and Rocky came close to preventing Nixon from winning on the first ballot. However, "Another possibility--and IMO the most likely if Nixon falls just short on the first ballot--is that enough delegates who were pledged to a 'favorite son' on the first ballot switch to Nixon so that he wins on the second ballot. Even the California delegates were only bound to Reagan on the first ballot, and some would probably switch to Nixon on the second." https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/tnx5RWPGyP8/Aso8Lavlx3cJ
 
While a Reagan nomination in 1968 was certainly conceivable, I don't think it was likely. Yes, Reagan and Rocky came close to preventing Nixon from winning on the first ballot. However, "Another possibility--and IMO the most likely if Nixon falls just short on the first ballot--is that enough delegates who were pledged to a 'favorite son' on the first ballot switch to Nixon so that he wins on the second ballot. Even the California delegates were only bound to Reagan on the first ballot, and some would probably switch to Nixon on the second." https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/tnx5RWPGyP8/Aso8Lavlx3cJ
Might require a situation where Nixon doesn't run, which would probably be the "No Vietnam/Successful Vietnam" situation I outlined where Johnson looks invincible going into 1968.
 

Towelie

Banned
With Wallace on the ballot, I don't think Reagan can get a win out of this. The West will line up behind him, but the South won't, as I don't think he had the political savvy of Nixon to cut into the South at all. LBJ likely wins with an election thrown to the house.

Then again, how does Reagan even get the nomination in '68? He was a favorite son candidate, really, and was not an acceptable compromise to the Eastern Wing of the party. '64 hung in a lot of people's minds, and they didn't want that kind of humiliation again against an obviously winnable opponent.
 
I don't see any possible way of LBJ running in 1968. The Viernam War wiped him out mentally and emotionally, plus didn't he have health problems around that time? Not to mention I don't see Reagan winning The GOP nomination then, he wasn't well known enough he was only in his first term as Governor. If we take out Vietnam though, then LBJ probably would beat anyone except maybe Nixon in 1968. He would have had more time to dedicate to The Economy and affairs at home. LBJ wasn't a foreign affairs President, he got caught up in Vietnam. Now a 1976 or 1980 Reagan beats LBJ.
 
Top