John Tower confirmed as Bush 41's Secretary of Defense

What if the Senate had confirmed George H W Bush's (or Bush 41) first pick for Secretary of Defense John Tower. Dick Cheney would probably have faced an early exit from politics and probably would never have become VP under George W Bush.

Future effects: assuming George W Bush is still elected his response to 9/11 would have been dramatically different....
 
What if the Senate had confirmed George H W Bush's (or Bush 41) first pick for Secretary of Defense John Tower. Dick Cheney would probably have faced an early exit from politics and probably would never have become VP under George W Bush.

Future effects: assuming George W Bush is still elected his response to 9/11 would have been dramatically different....

Why would you think that? GW Bush would have made much the same decisions no matter who was VP.

Also, why do you suppose Dick Cheney leaves politics. There are at least two opportunities in the 1990s to become a Senator from Wyoming.
 
Why would you think that? GW Bush would have made much the same decisions no matter who was VP.

Also, why do you suppose Dick Cheney leaves politics. There are at least two opportunities in the 1990s to become a Senator from Wyoming.

President Bush relied heavily on Cheney's expertise after 9/11 as to who to go after. It was Cheney who really pushed for all-out Iraq invasion, torturing terror suspects among Bush's other main dark and unpopular decisions....

Also it was Cheney's tenure as Sec Defense that elevated him to become Bush's top choice in the VP nomination....
 
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President Bush relied heavily on Cheney's expertise after 9/11 as to who to go after. It was Cheney who really pushed for all-out Iraq invasion, torturing terror suspects among Bush's other main dark and unpopular decisions....

Also it was Cheney's tenure as Sec Defense that elevated him to become Bush's top choice in the VP nomination....

Dark?

:rolleyes:

Really?:eek:
 

Fyrwulf

Banned
Future effects: assuming George W Bush is still elected his response to 9/11 would have been dramatically different....

I can't see the whole A-stan campaign being much more restrained, to be honest. I can easily seeing it going the other way with Bush giving into public pressure and letting the nukes fly, especially if he was as insecure in his early days as you say. Maybe Iraq doesn't happen, but Iran and/or NK does.

It's the what-ifs that make it all so interesting. Anybody up for doing a TL?
 
Somebody here once mentioned that Cheney in '86-'88 was a more senior figure in the GOP House leadership group than Newt Gingrich.

If this is true and he doesn't leave congress for the first Bush White House then we needn't wait until 2000 for the butterflies to kick in big time.
 
I'm very glad you mentioned this. Cheney was the House Minority Whip after Trent Lott won his U.S. Senate seat in Mississippi. This made Cheney second in command among House Republicans to Illinois Rep. Robert Michel, a moderate, and also the leading conservative. Gingrich only really distinguished himself among the House Republicans when he ran to succeed Cheney as Minority Whip after Cheney was appointed Secretary of Defense following the Tower nomination's failure. The George H. W. Bush White House made a spirited effort to support a moderate against Gingrich, whom they thought was a demagogue (where did they get that idea, I wonder?). Gingrich won despite their efforts, which made him a hero in the House Republican caucus. The moderate Republicans weakened further in the 1990 and 1992 elections. Thus, when Michel announced his retirement in 1994, Gingrich was the obvious replacement as head of the party. Of course at the same time as Gingrich went to the head of the line of the Republicans, the Republicans defeated the Democrats for control of the House in their legendary 1994 victory. So Gingrich went straight from being the Minority Whip in one Congress to being Speaker the next. And he lasted in the role only four years, his rival Tom DeLay having much greater skill in wielding power in the U.S. House, partly by never actually holding the Speaker's chair himself.

So now, if Tower is confirmed as U.S. Secretary of Defense, Cheney stays as House Republican Minority Whip, and there is no spirited race to fill the position. This means Cheney becomes the obvious leader of the House Republicans upon Michel's retirement, and given the very high likelihood of a House Republican victory in 1994 under either Gingrich or Cheney's leadership, Cheney quite probably becomes Speaker of the U.S. House in 1994.

This could actually be terrible for Democrats, because though he became very tone deaf with respect to public opinion in his last years in office, Cheney was a very skilled politician, and certainly a better strategist than Gingrich. I think Speaker Cheney means the rest of Clinton's term would become much tougher, and that itself could have significant secondary effects.

The other angle is the Gulf War. Although much of the success of the war was due to the actual military and its strategy, I remember Cheney was heavily involved in negotiating matters with the Saudis. Cheney could partly draw on his experience as Chief of Staff in developing these relationships. If John Tower is in his place throughout the Gulf War, perhaps complications could develop. For instance, a gaffe.


Somebody here once mentioned that Cheney in '86-'88 was a more senior figure in the GOP House leadership group than Newt Gingrich.

If this is true and he doesn't leave congress for the first Bush White House then we needn't wait until 2000 for the butterflies to kick in big time.
 
I'm very glad you mentioned this. Cheney was the House Minority Whip after Trent Lott won his U.S. Senate seat in Mississippi. This made Cheney second in command among House Republicans to Illinois Rep. Robert Michel, a moderate, and also the leading conservative. Gingrich only really distinguished himself among the House Republicans when he ran to succeed Cheney as Minority Whip after Cheney was appointed Secretary of Defense following the Tower nomination's failure. The George H. W. Bush White House made a spirited effort to support a moderate against Gingrich, whom they thought was a demagogue (where did they get that idea, I wonder?). Gingrich won despite their efforts, which made him a hero in the House Republican caucus. The moderate Republicans weakened further in the 1990 and 1992 elections. Thus, when Michel announced his retirement in 1994, Gingrich was the obvious replacement as head of the party. Of course at the same time as Gingrich went to the head of the line of the Republicans, the Republicans defeated the Democrats for control of the House in their legendary 1994 victory. So Gingrich went straight from being the Minority Whip in one Congress to being Speaker the next. And he lasted in the role only four years, his rival Tom DeLay having much greater skill in wielding power in the U.S. House, partly by never actually holding the Speaker's chair himself.

So now, if Tower is confirmed as U.S. Secretary of Defense, Cheney stays as House Republican Minority Whip, and there is no spirited race to fill the position. This means Cheney becomes the obvious leader of the House Republicans upon Michel's retirement, and given the very high likelihood of a House Republican victory in 1994 under either Gingrich or Cheney's leadership, Cheney quite probably becomes Speaker of the U.S. House in 1994.

This could actually be terrible for Democrats, because though he became very tone deaf with respect to public opinion in his last years in office, Cheney was a very skilled politician, and certainly a better strategist than Gingrich. I think Speaker Cheney means the rest of Clinton's term would become much tougher, and that itself could have significant secondary effects


This is interesting. I think in the longterm a '94 Republican victory in congress is almost guaranteed if a Dem beats George Bush in his attempt to win a second term. It can happen under Clinton, Kerrey, Cuomo, Tsongas, Gore et al--it's the tail-end of a generation long realignment, not just a reaction against a particular Democratic White House, and having Cheney as its architect instead of Gingrich doesn't butterfly it away, IMHO.

But Cheney as the big guy on Capitol Hill, working in partnership with Dole? That would change things dramatically post '96.

President Cheney, 2000 to 2008?
 
Cheney was in charge of the drawdown of US forces after the Cold War. The Army went from 18 divisions to 16, and then to 10. The military in this scenario could be massively different.
 
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