Roughly, an earlier Treaty of Arras, maybe more favourable to Charles VIII (on Somme, for exemple)Also, what are the consequences of him not getting assassinated?
As a duchy? Right when it became an apanage, in 1363-1364.At which point, then, did burgundy achieve semi-autonomy from France?
It's less about befireding than political interests : Bourguignons wanted the lead in France, and for that, gaining the lead in French court (as they obtained before Orléans-Armagnacs chased them) was the obvious and easier solution, as negociations with Lancasters didn't opened as much possibilities.Was John really so interested in befriending the French king?
If it's still going with weapons out, John doesn't have a chance of survival : he was unharmed and his attackers went for his life.So if John survives an attempt on his life, what are his options?
If it's still going with weapons out, John doesn't have a chance of survival : he was unharmed and his attackers went for his life.
What needs to change for him to survive, I guess, is what I'm really asking?
Is there any way to butterfly away the meeting altogether?
Not necessarily. A survival of Louis or Jean as Dauphin, or a successful capture of Charles VII (which would have efficiently beheaded the Armagnac faction) could make Jean de Bourgogne the big man of France, even after Agincourt.So...John's a dead man?
Not much : again it would require an Henry V far more disposed to make concessions, probably up to renounce his claims on the throne.I'd like to work it into my TL that he stays alive a bit longer and joins the English in capitalizing on the English victory at Agincourt. How plausible is this?
Not necessarily. A survival of Louis or Jean as Dauphin, or a successful capture of Charles VII (which would have efficiently beheaded the Armagnac faction) could make Jean de Bourgogne the big man of France, even after Agincourt.
Not much : again it would require an Henry V far more disposed to make concessions, probably up to renounce his claims on the throne.
Maybe butterflying away Agincourt, and giving away to Lancasters part of the kingdom, Brétigny-style? It's not particularily plausible, giving Henry V's personality and ambitions.
Actually, it would make Bourguignon faction being the main one in France. While I'm expecting more important negociations with Henry V, it would make Jean de Bourgogne even less encline to give away the throne to Lancasters, as he have a definitive political and ideological interest supporting Valois.I think a capture of Charles VII creates the kind of scenario I'm looking for. I don't want to butterfly away Agincourt, and I don't want the political landscape in England to change much, other than the natural reaction to beating France even harder.
Without Jean's murder in 1419, and critically if Charles VII is under Bourguignon influence, I don't think you'd have an alliance comparable to IOTL between Lancasters and Bourguignons (which was a relatively fragile one, at least for what mattered Burgundy)Wondering if I should just let John die and wank his son.
Actually, it would make Bourguignon faction being the main one in France. While I'm expecting more important negociations with Henry V, it would make Jean de Bourgogne even less encline to give away the throne to Lancasters, as he have a definitive political and ideological interest supporting Valois.
Note that it would be less Burgundy's victory (as in a duchy's victory) than a Bourguignon's victory (as in a French faction led by the Duke of Burgundy) : the distinction between both really appeared after 1419.
Of course a Bourguignon's victory would benefit the duchy, but you won't have a "Lotharingian" tentation ITTL.
Without Jean's murder in 1419, and critically if Charles VII is under Bourguignon influence, I don't think you'd have an alliance comparable to IOTL between Lancasters and Bourguignons (which was a relatively fragile one, at least for what mattered Burgundy)
Well, royal power would be relatively limited : with Charles VI still alive, and insane, Jean would be the ruler de facto of France and probably regent of Charles VII when we'll be king.So what kind of scenario does a Bourguignon-controlled France create?
Most probably : at this point, they already blamed defeats on Armagnacs and with Henry V still pretty much sure of his victory, Jean would have to act again (if in an attentist manner).Does Jean then lead France against Henry?
Jean doesn't have much interest doing so : if Charles dies, the succession would go to Orléans, prisoner in England. The duke would try proclaim himself regent, but it would have been a moral and political blow, unless the ransom was payed previously, but Jean would have very little interest giving Armagnacs their "natural" leader back, and as a possible king.What of the succession, should something 'befall' Charles VII?
Apart from having any possible successor of Charles conveniently dying? Not much.Is there any way for Jean to become a king in his own right?
You'd have to wait, IMO, keeping in mind that such PoD would make pretty nice and gigantic history-eater butterflies. The focus given on France may turn the Dukes to not entierly consider separating as a state, even while increasing their grasp on imperial lands.Is an even earlier separation of Burgundy (to mostly-sovereign state) ASB or even possible under Jean, or do I have to wait for things to develop as OTL under Phillip?
The latter, basically. He's on a strong position, France being weakened and divided...At least, he would try to pull an Edward III and to see how far he could go, and Burgundians (while able to stop the advance) would have to deal with that.Could you have neutrality, at least? Or would Henry pursue his claim on France, no matter who controls it?