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Say last member of House of Zápolya, John Sigismund, Duke of Transylvania, does not die young in 1571. Being alive at the time of death of his uncle Sigismund Augustus of Poland, he'll be obvious candidate to succeede him, as his closest, adult male relative. Election of 1573 should be formality, unless John Sigismund refuse to convert-IOTL he switched confession every second year, raised as Catholic he converted to Lutheranism, then to Calvinism and died as Unitarian. Say, that Cracow "is worth a mass" for him and he reconvert to Catholicism to get the throne of his belowed uncle. In such case, other candidates have chances very close to zero. So Jan II Zygmunt sits on Polish throne, meanwhile...
Transylvania needs regent, IOTL Zápolya supported Gáspár Békés as his successor, ITTL Sultan would surely demand other candidate than pro-Habsburg Békés if Zápolya, who is still Ottoman vassal, wants to keep his rights to Transylvania, so likely Báthory would became regent eventually. Later, if John Sigismund left more than one son, Zápolya's realm could be divided.
Another seriously affected country would be France-there is no Henri III's Polish adventure, and, likely, no Queen Louise de Lorraine-IOTL Henry met her for the first time in 1574, when he crossed Lorraine on his way to Poland, and Louise caught his eye there, so maybe alongside continuing House of Zapolya, we'll see continuing House of Valois?
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