John Sigismund Zápolya lives longer

If House of Zápolya survives in both PLC and Transylvania in the long term, Poland's relations with Habsburgs would complicate, PLC would be more pro-French and anti-Habsburg and would need to keep better relations with Ottomans (and with Sweden if possible, although this point would not be easy, because there still would be conflict of interest in Livonia and Estonia)
 
Zápolya Sweden
Sounds crazy? What about this: Sigismund Vasa is pragmatic enough to convert to Lutheranism (but, like father before, try to make it very 'High Church'). Johan Vasa before his death is afraid about future of his line on the throne and decides to eliminate his brother Karl (none of Gustav's sons was 100% sane, they tended to be cruel and suspicious, and Johan already eliminated one brother before).
Meanwhile in Poland: Jan Zygmunt marry Maria Maximiliana of Bavaria, have 3 kids with her:
-Zygmunt August (1576-1581)
-Jan Stefan (born 1578)
-Kazimierz (born 1580)
Maria Maximiliana dies giving birth to Kazimierz, Jan Zygmunt remarries to his cousin Anna Vasa, daughter of Johan in 1584 (at this time PLC and Sweden have good relations due to common Muscovite danger), they have one son, Zygmunt, born in 1585. Jan II Zygmunt dies in 1597. Is succeeded in PLC by Jan Stefan and in Transylvania by Kazimierz/Kázmér.
In Sweden Sigismund have no surviving children, and his half-brother Johan dies early (Sigismund in absolutely good will brought some excellent doctor from Western Europe, who decimated Vasa family with his 'wonderful' therapies). Say in 1605 Sigismund Vasa's health deterioriate, King calls for his sister (who even as wife of Polish King remained Protestant) and nephew, who are his closest relatives and only remaining legitimate descendants of Johan III. After death of Sigismund I Vasa, his nephew, Sigismund II Zapolya takes Swedish throne, 3 Zapolya brothers rule Sweden, PLC and Transylvania.
 
Genealogy of House of Zápolya with some modifications:

John II Sigismund (1541-1598), Duke of Transylvania, King of Poland, m. 1574 Maximiliana Maria of Bavaria (1552-1616)
Children:

1) Sigismund III Vladislaus (1575-1618), King of Poland since 1598, m. 1596 Anna of Sweden (1568-1618), Children:
a) Sigismund IV Maximilian (1598-1656), King of Poland since 1618.
b) John IV Casimir (1600-1667), King of Sweden* since 1622
c) Catherine (1603-1605)

2) John Stephen (1577-1581)

3) Casimir (1580-1636), Duke of Transylvania since 1598.

*ITTL Sigismund Vasa is a bit different from real one, more pragmatic, converted to Lutheranism to keep Swedish throne, executed his uncle Karl for treason. Unlike IOTL this Sigismund outlives all his kids and dies childless, proclaims his nephew Jan Kazimierz his heir and gives him title of Duke of Öland. Jan Kazimierz converts to Lutheranism and succeedes his uncle as Johan IV Kasimir, thus House of Zápolya moves even further north. For most of 17th Century Zápolya's realms are generally anti-Habsburg and pro-French.
 
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So Jan II Zygmunt sits on Polish throne, meanwhile...
Transylvania needs regent, IOTL Zápolya supported Gáspár Békés as his successor, ITTL Sultan would surely demand other candidate than pro-Habsburg Békés if Zápolya, who is still Ottoman vassal, wants to keep his rights to Transylvania, so likely Báthory would became regent eventually
Might be a dumb question, but why would a King John Sigismund of Poland succumb to any Ottoman demands? Surely he would no longer consider himself a vassal of the Porte if he's on the PLC throne. Granted, not sure how it was with Bathory OTL.
 
Might be a dumb question, but why would a King John Sigismund of Poland succumb to any Ottoman demands? Surely he would no longer consider himself a vassal of the Porte if he's on the PLC throne. Granted, not sure how it was with Bathory OTL.
Bathory was vassal of Ottoman Empire as Duke of Transylvania even after getting Polish throne. Sultan was really happy about his election (which closed road to the throne to Habsburgs) and Stephen tried to not piss off Ottomans when he was king. I wonder how would Ottomans view idea of kicking Habsburgs out of Hungary and letting Zápolyas to reunite country? TTL with Sweden-PLC-Transylvania block allied with France and Ottomans means serious troubles for Habsburgs, it seems possible, OTOH Sultan could fear, that his vassals would get too strong.
 
No Russian adventure and Zapolya on the Kremlin? If John Casimir could convert to lutheranism, his uncle could convert to orthodox. (assuming some buterfly net, of course). Although PLC, Sweden and Russia in hands of one dynasty (asuming they remain moderatly friendly to each other, which is not a given) might be enough for the Habsburgs and Ottomans to sign an alliance :)
 
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No Russian adventure and Zapolya on the Kremlin? If John Casimir could convert to lutheranism, his uncle could convert to orthodox. (assuming some buterfly net, of course)
Why no Russian adventure? It would be great mistake to waste opportunities created by Time of Troubles. Zápolya in Kremlin means dead Zápolya, like Vasa prince in Moscow would be IOTL, Zygmunt III knew what happened to False Dimitri, no surprise he didn't want the same fate for Władysław. ITTL Time of Troubles would be quite different due to Sweden being allied to PLC, but Zápolya's Russia would not be final result.
 
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