John Sigismund Zápolya lives longer

[Jan Olbracht]

Say last member of House of Zápolya, John Sigismund, Duke of Transylvania, does not die young in 1571. Being alive at the time of death of his uncle Sigismund Augustus of Poland, he'll be obvious candidate to succeede him, as his closest, adult male relative. Election of 1573 should be formality, unless John Sigismund refuse to convert-IOTL he switched confession every second year, raised as Catholic he converted to Lutheranism, then to Calvinism and died as Unitarian. Say, that Cracow "is worth a mass" for him and he reconvert to Catholicism to get the throne of his belowed uncle. In such case, other candidates have chances very close to zero. So Jan II Zygmunt sits on Polish throne, meanwhile...
Transylvania needs regent, IOTL Zápolya supported Gáspár Békés as his successor, ITTL Sultan would surely demand other candidate than pro-Habsburg Békés if Zápolya, who is still Ottoman vassal, wants to keep his rights to Transylvania, so likely Báthory would became regent eventually. Later, if John Sigismund left more than one son, Zápolya's realm could be divided.
Another seriously affected country would be France-there is no Henri III's Polish adventure, and, likely, no Queen Louise de Lorraine-IOTL Henry met her for the first time in 1574, when he crossed Lorraine on his way to Poland, and Louise caught his eye there, so maybe alongside continuing House of Zapolya, we'll see continuing House of Valois?

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Say last member of House of Zápolya, John Sigismund, Duke of Transylvania, does not die young in 1571. Being alive at the time of death of his uncle Sigismund Augustus of Poland, he'll be obvious candidate to succeede him, as his closest, adult male relative. Election of 1573 should be formality, unless John Sigismund refuse to convert-IOTL he switched confession every second year, raised as Catholic he converted to Lutheranism, then to Calvinism and died as Unitarian. Say, that Cracow "is worth a mass" for him and he reconvert to Catholicism to get the throne of his belowed uncle. In such case, other candidates have chances very close to zero. So Jan II Zygmunt sits on Polish throne, meanwhile...
Transylvania needs regent, IOTL Zápolya supported Gáspár Békés as his successor, ITTL Sultan would surely demand other candidate than pro-Habsburg Békés if Zápolya, who is still Ottoman vassal, wants to keep his rights to Transylvania, so likely Báthory would became regent eventually. Later, if John Sigismund left more than one son, Zápolya's realm could be divided.
Another seriously affected country would be France-there is no Henri III's Polish adventure, and, likely, no Queen Louise de Lorraine-IOTL Henry met her for the first time in 1574, when he crossed Lorraine on his way to Poland, and Louise caught his eye there, so maybe alongside continuing House of Zapolya, we'll see continuing House of Valois?

Before he wed Louise de Lorraine, Catherine de Medicis was trying to arrange a match between Henri and a Swedish princess (Elisabet Vasa, I think).

As to Zapolya, he proposed or was proposed as a match to Maximiliane Marie or Maria Anna of Bavaria OTL IIRC. Not sure if such a match will still go through here, could be interesting though, since Maria Anna was the driving force behind her husband and later her son's ultra Catholicism AFAIK.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Before he wed Louise de Lorraine, Catherine de Medicis was trying to arrange a match between Henri and a Swedish princess (Elisabet Vasa, I think).

As to Zapolya, he proposed or was proposed as a match to Maximiliane Marie or Maria Anna of Bavaria OTL IIRC. Not sure if such a match will still go through here, could be interesting though, since Maria Anna was the driving force behind her husband and later her son's ultra Catholicism AFAIK.

It was Catherine Vasa I think (edit: checked-Elizabeth, you're right) whom Catherine de Medici wanted to see as her daughter-in-law? I also tought about French-Swedish match ITTL.
John Sigismund was also bethroted to Joanna of Austria before, Habsburgs would regret now, that they refused him her hand so they'll not have another Habsburg princess on Polish throne.

 

[Toraach]

After the death of hin uncle he might return to the One True Church and be elected the King of Poland

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

After the death of hin uncle he might return to the One True Church and be elected the King of Poland

The question of which church is the One or True might come up. But who cares besides the Habsburgs? Would he not attempt to continue the Jagiellonian tolerance rather than go full-out Counter Reformation (like Sigmund III)? I'm not sure if there WAS a tolerance thing OTL, its just that Sigmund III comes across as far more hardline Catholic than his uncle, the late king Sigmund II did

 

[alexmilman]

It was Catherine Vasa I think (edit: checked-Elizabeth, you're right) whom Catherine de Medici wanted to see as her daughter-in-law? I also tought about French-Swedish match ITTL.

But would it be such a good idea? Sweden was already deeply in a process of Reformation (even if the royal family still were Catholics) and, anyway, hardly of any practical use to France so what's the practical difference?.

OTOH, a different marriage would not guarantee the children: AFAIK, there is no sign of Henry having any bastards (unlike Charles IX) so perhaps the problem was his and not his wife's.

Of course, an idea of a continues Valois succession and its impact upon the Wars of Religion is interesting. Do you care to elaborate on this?

 

[Jan Olbracht]

But would it be such a good idea? Sweden was already deeply in a process of Reformation (even if the royal family still were Catholics) and, anyway, hardly of any practical use to France so what's the practical difference?.

OTOH, a different marriage would not guarantee the children: AFAIK, there is no sign of Henry having any bastards (unlike Charles IX) so perhaps the problem was his and not his wife's.

Of course, an idea of a continues Valois succession and its impact upon the Wars of Religion is interesting. Do you care to elaborate on this?

Catherine de Medici wanted Vasa princess (who had other Catholic suitors already) who didn't speak French as daughter-in-law, because such candidate would not challenge position of Queen Mother. I assume Elizabeth would convert. If we assume that Henry was sterile, there is other option-he is not in Poland in 1574 ITTL, what he is doing in France then? Hunting, perhaps. Hunting accidents happen sometimes, even to royals...

 

[Toraach]

The question of which church is the One or True might come up. But who cares besides the Habsburgs? Would he not attempt to continue the Jagiellonian tolerance rather than go full-out Counter Reformation (like Sigmund III)? I'm not sure if there WAS a tolerance thing OTL, its just that Sigmund III comes across as far more hardline Catholic than his uncle, the late king Sigmund II did

Even in such tolerant country the king had to be a catholic. It was just how things were there. In year 1572 catholic bishops were members of the Senate, the arcibishop of Gniezno was the interrex. It was such power that they could influece things and elections. To go against that you need a full reformation in Poland. Counter-Reformation in Poland successed mostly not because royal support(this country lack any state aparatus to conduct any active internal politics, especially against a big part of nobility), but because it was atractive for nobility, example Jusuit-schools were that good that even protestant nobles send their kids there.

 

[alexmilman]

Catherine de Medici wanted Vasa princess (who had other Catholic suitors already) who didn't speak French as daughter-in-law, because such candidate would not challenge position of Queen Mother. I assume Elizabeth would convert. If we assume that Henry was sterile, there is other option-he is not in Poland in 1574 ITTL, what he is doing in France then? Hunting, perhaps. Hunting accidents happen sometimes, even to royals...

The interesting situation is NOT assuming that Henry is sterile but its opposite: he has at least one legitimate male child. He is still assassinated at the same time as in OTL (and his mother is already dead) but there is a young heir to the throne and Henry Bourbon is just a leader of the Protestant party.

The 1st issue is regency with a number of options (most probably I'll miss some of the possibilities):

(a) Widowed Queen mother (whoever she is). In the case of her being foreign to such a degree that she does not even speak French (it seems that Catherine Medici, Maria Medici, Anne of Austria did not have excessive problems with that), her qualification as a regent is a big question mark. Plus, she does not have any party of her own but this may be considered an advantage by the Catholic League if they expect to control her. What at that point can pass as a royal party is extremely weak politically and militarily and there is no even Mazarin-like figure on her side. Most probably, she becomes just a puppet in the hands of Catholic party and the war is going on until everybody is too fed up with it to continue. Some compromise (more or less similar to Edict of Nantes) is eventually achieved, with the leaders of both parties getting some substantial rewards (governorships, estates, etc.)

(b) Henry of Navarre - formally the most suitable as the closest male relative but definitely not acceptable as a leader of the Protestant party. Would have to convert to eliminate this objection but was he willing to do so at that time and would the ultra-Catholic at that point be as ready to overlook his past as they did 4 years later (after extensive beating)?

(d) Some person or persons appointed by the Parliament of Paris. Probably the Duke of Mayenne would be on the list as the senior male of the Guise family. Of course, Henry would not recognize such a choice and the fight continues until Mayenne and a reasonably sane part of the League are ready to compromise.

When the young king eventually grows up, France is at peace but has more problems than it had during the reign of Louis XIII: the grand seigniors have a lot of power in the provinces they are governing, the Protestants have state within the state, economy is in disarray and crown's revenues are being routinely stolen by those in power.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

The question of which church is the One or True might come up. But who cares besides the Habsburgs? Would he not attempt to continue the Jagiellonian tolerance rather than go full-out Counter Reformation (like Sigmund III)? I'm not sure if there WAS a tolerance thing OTL, its just that Sigmund III comes across as far more hardline Catholic than his uncle, the late king Sigmund II did

John Sigismund as Duke of Transylvania was quite tolerant ruler, so this would not change when he is elected to the Polish throne.

 

[alexmilman]

The question of which church is the One or True might come up. But who cares besides the Habsburgs? Would he not attempt to continue the Jagiellonian tolerance rather than go full-out Counter Reformation (like Sigmund III)? I'm not sure if there WAS a tolerance thing OTL, its just that Sigmund III comes across as far more hardline Catholic than his uncle, the late king Sigmund II did

I'd suggest that the issue was not as much a tolerance or its absence as an extent of a royal power in the Commonwealth and Sweden.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Sigismund III wasn't Catholic zealot, he was serious about his religion (his father, seeing how unpopular is his decision to raise kids as Catholics, tried to force teenage Sigismund to convert, despite being beaten by father, Siggie refused), but he was not "burn heretics"! type.
ITTL John Sigismund is in less complicated situation-Catholicism in Transylvania is still relatively strong compared to Sweden and not presecuted.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

I think John Sigismund would marry after election and Maria Anna of Bavaria would still marry Charles-they married just few months after OTL Zápolya's death, so rather no changes there. Maximiliana Maria of Bavaria seems likely as Queen of Poland (hardly any other Catholic princess was available).
Also-what do you think about Francis Hercules "Frog" succeeding Charles IX instead of Henry III?

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Meanwhile in Sweden...
After John Sigismund is elected, King John Vasa may earlier than IOTL came to conclusion, that Catholic faith of his children is problematic and offers little gains. He failed to force 13 years old Sigismund to convert, would he succeede with 9-10 years old Siggie?

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Meanwhile in Sweden...
After John Sigismund is elected, King John Vasa may earlier than IOTL came to conclusion, that Catholic faith of his children is problematic and offers little gains. He failed to force 13 years old Sigismund to convert, would he succeede with 9-10 years old Siggie?

Possibly. But Katarzyna of Poland is not dead yet, so she might still throw a spanner in the works. However, it was her death that disillusioned her daughter, Anna, so if Siggie forms a similar opinion Johan mightn't have to do much

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Possibly. But Katarzyna of Poland is not dead yet, so she might still throw a spanner in the works. However, it was her death that disillusioned her daughter, Anna, so if Siggie forms a similar opinion Johan mightn't have to do much

When Katarzyna was still alive, Johan forced Sigismund to participate in Lutheran praying, and beaten him, when he refused. Since late 1570s Johan was afraid, that his son could lose Swedish throne due to his faith. But Sigismund had rebelious nature, and decided to oppose his father, so it is is possible, that he'd still remain Catholic (although he was pragmatic enough IOTL to declare Lutheranism privileged religion in Sweden during his reign), although not being King of Poland at the same time, he'd have bigger chance to keep Swedish throne. His uncle, with no doubts, would still try his chance.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

I could see TTL Sigismund Vasa as Henry IV in reverse-contrary to "Paris is worth a mass" legend, Henry IV was not religiously indifferent and converted only when he realised that there is no other option, if he wants to sit on the throne. Same thing could happen to Sigismund.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

ITTL Sigismund surely is not going to marry Habsburg girl-propably he'll marry Christina of Holstein (OTL wife of Charles IX) like he planned IOTL, maybe even during his father's lifetime? Thus he could be reverse of his father-Catholic married to Protestant, raising his kids in Lutheran faith to appease Swedish nobles?
I'd like to see also Zápolya's son married to Anna Vasa ITTL.

 

[BBadolato]

I do now know if this up your alley, what will this mean for the Livonian War with Russia, and how would Lithuania react to Jan Zapolya as king?

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Livonian War could look different-Zápolya is not military commander like Bathory (although Bathory's involvement is still possible, Zápolya is still Duke of Transylvania and Bathory is his subject, Hungarian troops in Livonia also are likely). Perhaps, instead of cutting Russian supply lines by attacking western Russian towns, Zápolya would decide to fight directly in Livonia?