John Sigismund Vasa Survives

In 1652 Marie Gonzaga gave birth to a son, John Sigismund named after his father (the King of Poland-Lithuania) and grandfather. What if he survived? Would his father still abdicate in 1668, if he does John would be only 16. Who would he marry and would he even win election to the Polish throne?
 
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@Jan Olbracht will be glad. Since there probably would be no vivente rege madness here. Not saying that Ludovica Maria will be less of a schemer, or that Jan II will be less of an idiot, but no need to Piastify a foreign prince or such would go a LONG way.
 
That would change John Casimir's reign post-Deluge. After Deluge popularity of John Casimir vastly increased and need for reforms became obvious. Unfortunately, king pushed only for one reform, that would not bring much good-election vivente rege (during previous king's lifetime). Attempts to enforce VR election was considered High Treason in PLC. That was only part of the problem-John Casimir, under his wife's influence, tried to enforce election of Duke of Condé, who was married to his wife's niece, but had zero blood connections to Vasas and Jagiellons. The fact, that King wanted to make some Frenchman his heir not only enraged nobility, but also forced Habsburgs to take action. Bourbon on the Polish throne was seen as danger in Vienna. Thus Austrians, who sided with PLC during Deluge and supported Polish reforms after Deluge, started to support opposition against King (these other reforms, which King found to be of lesser importance than VR, included reforms of tax system and Sejm-decisions would be made with 2/3 majority, liberum veto (which was still not in use in its 'classic' form, that only started in 1669) usage would be restricted-could not be used to block taxes for example, envoy using LV would need to prove, that decision made by Sejm is against laws of PLC and even then, veto would not make all decisions made by Sejm null and void, only the vetoed part would be gone). Local Sejmiki get instructions to accept reforms, except for vivente rege, while King wanted vivente rege and was careless about rest of reforms.)
So there would be no Lubomirski's Rebellion, John Casimir would not ruin his reputation again and would not be forced to abdicate. With John Sigismund alive dynastic rule in PLC would continue, also pro-French party in PLC would be weaker without VR campaign, sponsored largely by Louis XIV.
 
With living John Sigismund, Vasas would keep Duchy of Oppeln, given them as lien in 1645 by Emperor Ferdinand III for 50 years , after that 50 years, if male line of Sigismund III continues, Vasas would be made hereditary Dukes of Oppeln, but that land would not be given to PLC, it would remain part of Crown of Bohemia and HRE. IOTL Vasa rule in Upper Silesia lasted only for 20 years, Marie Louise sold it back to Habsburgs, because Emperor Leopold refused to allow Marie Louise's niece and her Bourbon husband to inherit the Duchy. With John Sigismund around, Vasas would keep Oppeln. John Sigismund would be propably married to Eleanor Habsburg, daughter of Ferdinand III, OTL wife of King Michael, to strenghten Vasas rights to Oppeln. Polish Vasas were pro-Habsburg until John Casimir's VR madness, and would remain pro-Habsburg ITTL. IOTL John Casimir worked really hard to piss off 17th century PLC's only reliable ally.
 
With living John Sigismund, Vasas would keep Duchy of Oppeln, given them as lien in 1645 by Emperor Ferdinand III for 50 years , after that 50 years, if male line of Sigismund III continues, Vasas would be made hereditary Dukes of Oppeln, but that land would not be given to PLC, it would remain part of Crown of Bohemia and HRE. IOTL Vasa rule in Upper Silesia lasted only for 20 years, Marie Louise sold it back to Habsburgs, because Emperor Leopold refused to allow Marie Louise's niece and her Bourbon husband to inherit the Duchy. With John Sigismund around, Vasas would keep Oppeln. John Sigismund would be propably married to Eleanor Habsburg, daughter of Ferdinand III, OTL wife of King Michael, to strenghten Vasas rights to Oppeln. Polish Vasas were pro-Habsburg until John Casimir's VR madness, and would remain pro-Habsburg ITTL. IOTL John Casimir worked really hard to piss off 17th century PLC's only reliable ally.
That is what I am trying to say having Oppeln and Teschen would mean that PLC would have Vistula as theirs completely, PLC should secure Vistula in order to survive.
 
That is what I am trying to say having Oppeln and Teschen would mean that PLC would have Vistula as theirs completely, PLC should secure Vistula in order to survive.
Oppeln would not be made part of PLC, it would be Vasa-ruled duchy within HRE, that would tie Vasas closer to Habsburgs. But neither Habsburgs nor Vasas would want it to be incorporated by PLC.
 
It seems not very likely, but I wonder if hypothetical children od John Sigismund Vasa and Eleanor of Austria could get Mantua as appanage for younger son? Both Eleanor and John Sigismund had Gonzaga mothers, daughters of Charles I of Mantua and his son Charles II of Nevers respectively. Chances are slim and depends on Habsburg support for the idea, but if Vasas are still loyal Habsburg allies, why not?
 
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With living John Sigismund, Vasas would keep Duchy of Oppeln, given them as lien in 1645 by Emperor Ferdinand III for 50 years , after that 50 years, if male line of Sigismund III continues, Vasas would be made hereditary Dukes of Oppeln, but that land would not be given to PLC, it would remain part of Crown of Bohemia and HRE. IOTL Vasa rule in Upper Silesia lasted only for 20 years, Marie Louise sold it back to Habsburgs, because Emperor Leopold refused to allow Marie Louise's niece and her Bourbon husband to inherit the Duchy. With John Sigismund around, Vasas would keep Oppeln. John Sigismund would be propably married to Eleanor Habsburg, daughter of Ferdinand III, OTL wife of King Michael, to strenghten Vasas rights to Oppeln. Polish Vasas were pro-Habsburg until John Casimir's VR madness, and would remain pro-Habsburg ITTL. IOTL John Casimir worked really hard to piss off 17th century PLC's only reliable ally.
So what I’m gathering from all this is if John Sigismund survived, John II Casimire and Louis Marie Gonzaga wouldn’t piss of Austria and that reform would work? If reform wouldn’t work would John Sigismund be able to reform when his reign starts in 1672?
 
Oppeln would not be made part of PLC, it would be Vasa-ruled duchy within HRE, that would tie Vasas closer to Habsburgs. But neither Habsburgs nor Vasas would want it to be incorporated by PLC.
I think in the future Teschen and Oppeln would be parts of Poland in that scenario but not on the short term.
 
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