John Nance Garner dead in 1932

A rather subtle (though interesting) WI.

Let us have John Nance Garner (already an old man) die from a sudden heart attack on July 27 1932 a few hours after the start of the Democratic Convention.

Would FDR still be able to get the nomination without Garner's support? If yes, who would his running mate be?
 
A rather subtle (though interesting) WI.

Let us have John Nance Garner (already an old man) die from a sudden heart attack on July 27 1932 a few hours after the start of the Democratic Convention.

Would FDR still be able to get the nomination without Garner's support? If yes, who would his running mate be?

Might be tough to do: in OTL, Garner lived to within days of his 99th birthday, so he was a pretty sturdy dude.
 
Well, the POD is that he isn't.

It's a good WI! FDR managed to edge his rivals aside by cutting a deal with Garner; the resulting ticked balanced a northern liberal with a southern conservative, a formula the democrats would return to later with Stevenson/Kefauver, JFK/LBJ, and Dukakis/Bentsen. (And Carter/Mondale, in reverse; people forget that Carter ran as a moderate-to-conservative "New Democrat").

Now, absent Garner, there are plenty of southern conservatives FDR could pick. But if Garner dies just before the convention gets under way... well, things get gnarly.

Let's see. OTL, Garner controlled a modest but crucial swing block of delegates -- basically, Texas and California. (Which were a lot smaller back then.) He couldn't win, but he could be kingmaker between FDR and Al Smith. OTL, he used that leverage to take the VP spot.

Without him... well, Smith can't win. He lost too badly in 1928; and also, too many delegates have come to hate his guts. (Long story.) But Smith may be able to block FDR until the weary party, after many votes, turns to a compromise candidate; remember, Democratic conventions required a 2/3 vote to nominate back then. (FDR, having run its gauntlet, would spike the 2/3 rule at the very next convention.)

So the question then becomes, without Garner, can FDR still scrape together 2/3 of the total votes. Hum.


Doug M.
 
bump! :D

Well? Anyone have ideas? I can see this having effects on the New Deal, even if FDR does win - OTL, I've heard Garner helped a lot of the legislation through Congress (or was it Senate?).
 
Without Garner, FDR might not be able to gain the required 2/3rds of the Convention due to Smith blocking him. As a result the weary party is forced to accept a compromise Candidate. Who exactly it is could be anyone's guess. To keep things interesting let's assume it isn't FDR...

However Hoover's ineptitude in dealing with the Great Depression pretty much guaruntee the GOP's loss in 1932. However given the fact that FDR isn't campaigning the landslide that occurred in OTL is unlikely to occur. But the Democrats do end up in office with a slight majority in both houses of Congress.

Unfortunately they don't do much of anything, leading to the American public becoming increasingly cynical about the government. America edges towards revolution with socialism and communism growing in popularity during the early 1930's. Things do begin to get better, albeit slowly but they do little to stem the rising tide of discontent within America.

Come 1936 America wants change in the worst possible way. The only question is Who? FDR's probably not out of politics and will make a go of it. But his failure to secure the nomination probably convinces the young Louisiana governor Huey Long to go for the nomination. Furthermore the Socialist party also campaigns aggressively. Who the GOP nominate could be anyone's guess let's assume a dark horse emerges like Frank Knox (an OTL GOP candidate in 1936).

The Democrats end up fracturing due to Huey Long's inability to wrest the nomination away from the incumbent. His policies coupled with the rise of the Socialists leads to large ammounts of vote splitting across the country and the Republicans winning with a majority of the electoral college but a bare plurality of the actual vote. This of course does little to allay the American discontent with the government.

Riots soon begin to break out across the country and are suppressed by elements of the Army and National Guard. Knox is forced to respond causing a "Second Red Scare" that sees many Socialists and Communists arrested. Fortunately Knox's term in office will see America begin to pull itself out of the 1930's and recover from the Great Depression (no FDR = no NRA). However significant unrest remains at home.

An internationalist, Knox seeks to maneuver the US into war with Nazi Germany eventually doing so over the sinking of a US Battleship in early 1941by a German U-boat who mistook the ship for the HMS MALAYA. Upon entering the war the American economy begins to drastically improve as factories churn out tanks, guns, and planes, and millions of men are drafted into the army.

Unfortunately despite the War calming internal discontent and providing short term stability. It does little to restore the fractured political system. Unable to form a New Deal Coalition, the Democratic Party is no more...and American politics just got a whole lot more interesting...
 
No Vice president from 1933 to 1937 means that Roosevelt will have a difficulty to get the congressional support for his New Deal program. Al Smith will make an alliance with the Republicans in order to defeat the New Deal program of Roosevelt.
 

HueyLong

Banned
No Vice president from 1933 to 1937 means that Roosevelt will have a difficulty to get the congressional support for his New Deal program. Al Smith will make an alliance with the Republicans in order to defeat the New Deal program of Roosevelt.

1932.... before the convention.... please read the OP. I hate to be rude, but you seem to do this sort of thing a lot.
 
bump! :D

Well? Anyone have ideas? I can see this having effects on the New Deal, even if FDR does win - OTL, I've heard Garner helped a lot of the legislation through Congress (or was it Senate?).

it means the legislation will pass with some more opposition. Garner never really put to much faith in the new deal, but he considered it his duty to work for it as long as FDR was the president. And he was very good at pushing bills through the Senate with little debate and a yes vote.
 
Perhaps FDR cuts a deal with Al Smith making him VP in exchange for his share of the delegates?

With a Catholic VP FDR's not going to do as well as he did in OTL but he's still pretty much a shoe in...
 
Perhaps FDR cuts a deal with Al Smith making him VP in exchange for his share of the delegates?

With a Catholic VP FDR's not going to do as well as he did in OTL but he's still pretty much a shoe in...
I don't know about that. Al Smith hated Roosevelt. When FDR got the nomination, he almost bolted. Plus, Al Smith was completely against the New Deal. He wouldn't have lasted through his first term.
 
I don't see Smith going for this either.

More generally, I don't think a former Presidential nominee has ever subsequently accepted the second place on a ticket. The closest, IMS, was the Reagan/Ford "dream ticket" in 1980, and that wasn't very close.


Doug M.
 
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