John McCain goes Independent in 2002

HueyLong

Banned
TIME Magazine said:
Daschle and other Democrats involved in the quiet efforts to woo McCain recall that he was willing to listen to their pitch that he quit the GOP in the spring of 2001 and become an independent. Most McCain loyalists insist now that he never seriously considered it. But they do concede that Ted Kennedy discussed the idea with McCain on more than one occasion. Mark Salter, McCain's closest aide, joined the Senator on that first visit to Kennedy's office and waited outside. "Teddy was just talking to me about switching parties," McCain told Salter when it was over. "What'd you tell him?" Salter asked. "No," replied McCain. "But he wants to talk to me again."

What if McCain had officially left and renounced the Republican Party to become an Independent in say, 2002?

He has a Senate election in 2004, as well as Kerry's suggestion for a fusion ticket.

What happens?
 

HueyLong

Banned
Thats not the only effect, and things do not run exactly as they did. Heck, removing McCain probably helps Giuliani and does nothing at all for Huckabee.

I doubt he loses his seat- he's never had a challenge. Look at how it went for Lieberman.

Its a huge blow to the Republicans- one of their ranking members and most well liked members leaving them? Huge blow, and will have effects on all the elections there after.

There is also the fusion ticket Kerry tried to push. Without the chance of 2008 (which he was unsure on even then, admittedly), he might accept it more quickly, especially if he's had two years caucusing with the Democrats. That changes the election in 2004.
 
most likely Rudy.

Huckabee would still draw me to the GOP like OTL, but my family and I would probably vote 3rd party with those conditions. (Well, my mom and uncle almost always vote DEM [except Obama] but my dad and I pick the lesser of the two evil strategy.)
 
Interesting notion. Perhaps the adds in South Carolina in 2000 are even more vicious? Perhaps Bush makes some gaffe that McCain takes as an insult?

Hmm, given Liberman's showing in 2006, I bet McCain keeps his seat. However, the fusion ticket with Kerry might have potential as well. I think McCain has the choice between defending his Senate seat to vindicate his choice to reject the Republicans and joining Kerry in order to satisfy potential Presidential ambitions.

A lot depends on just how Kerry makes the offer. Indeed, before we even get to 2004, there's the potential political fallout to consider. If McCain is vigorously decalring his opposition to Bush policy in 2002, then the events of 2003 might be different. It's hard to see McCain actually opposing the war resolution, but that's not the whole story. If McCain bolts in 2002, then he's effecitvely saying that you can oppose the Bush Republicans without being un-patriotic after 9/11. That has the potential to throw a big loop in the atmosphere of Capitol Hill.

Another big quetion is who McCain choses to Caucus with. He wouldn't change the control of the Senate. Would he chose to Caucus with the Democrats, like Jeffords did, in order to retain a Senate chairmanship? Or Would he chose to be a genuine independent and simply use his privileges as a Senator to make proposals on the floor?

Also, I wonder if McCain might attempt to resign to force a special election and run as his own replacement. Arizona's Constitution does require such in the event of a vacancy. This might be an attempt to vindicate his choice and demonstrate his continued appeal to voters. If he does this, though, he's declaring war on the Bush Administration and will make far greater waves. It would also be a big cost and he'd still need to run again in 2004.

All of this doesn't preclude McCain from accepting Kerry's offer (indeed, it sets him up to do so), but would the offer still exist? Would Kerry still win the Democratic primary? I would guess so, since the anti-war enthusiasm of the Dean supporters might be lessened if there's more bipartisan dissent against Bush. I could see Kerry getting pressure to keep the ticket "in the family" since the DNC would see the chance to re-take the White House all the more potently: there's no need for McCain's appeal unless Kerry insists on it.

On the other hand, there's no real reason to think that McCain's defection would really be interpreted in so harsh a light. Accordingly, he might feel an even greater weight not to accept Kerry's offer in order not to seem like a complete turncoat. Furthermore, McCain might want to fight for his seat in 2004 to vindicate his choice.
 
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