John McCain challenges George W. Bush in 2004

The POD is John McCain not running for president in 2000 and challenging Bush in the Republican Party Presidential Primaries of 2004. Can Bush's dropping approval ratings be a liability to Bush? If he wins the nomination, how will he fare against John Kerry, and who might his Democratic opponent in 2008 be?
 
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On what basis? :confused:

The Republican Party was strongly united behind Bush in '03 and even the token man who did consider jumping into the race, Senator Lincoln Chafee, backed out once Saddam Hussein was captured. McCain would have a better chance of taking the Democratic nomination than he would trying to take the Republican nomination from Bush.

That isn't even raising the issue of what platform he would be running on; bomb Iran?
 
If, as you suggest, McCain doesn't run in 2000 then he lacks the standing to run for President in 2008 let alone to challenge a sitting president in 2004. Even under the assumption that everything pre-2003 goes according to OTL, Bush's campaign raised something to the tune of seventy million dollars specifically to scare off any potential challengers. McCain would be buried in an avalanche of negative ads that would effectively destroy his image, crush his campaign, and end his career.

Maybe there's a different VP than Cheney, maybe Kerry wins. What's certain is that McCain is done as a Republican (and likely as a Senator).
 
If, as you suggest, McCain doesn't run in 2000 then he lacks the standing to run for President in 2008 let alone to challenge a sitting president in 2004. Even under the assumption that everything pre-2003 goes according to OTL, Bush's campaign raised something to the tune of seventy million dollars specifically to scare off any potential challengers. McCain would be buried in an avalanche of negative ads that would effectively destroy his image, crush his campaign, and end his career.

Maybe there's a different VP than Cheney, maybe Kerry wins. What's certain is that McCain is done as a Republican (and likely as a Senator).

I agree, with things as they were, McCain would be committing political suicide to run a Primary Challenge against Bush in 2004.

You could however, have a POD of no 9/11 and have Bush essentially be a lame duck President throughout his first term (his Presidency was heading in that direction pre 9/11) and McCain could run as a Republican who could get things done.
 
How in the world do you get Bush was going into lame duck status just 8 months into office? Please provide your reasons.
 
If McCain-Feingold doesn't pass or is somehow vetoed, it's possible that McCain could become either an Independent or a Democrat.
 
How in the world do you get Bush was going into lame duck status just 8 months into office? Please provide your reasons.

He doesn't become a lame duck in 8 months, but if you look at his approval ratings in the Summer of 2001, they were starting to fall (they were 50% just before 9/11), plus with the tax cut only passing due to Cheney's tie breaking vote, and Jeffords leaving the GOP because of Bush's policies, becoming an independent, and caucusing with the Democrats, handing them the majority in the Senate (the majority was split after the 2000 election), things were not going well for Bush and if things didn't get better for him, he would be a lame duck President by the time of the 2004 election. Also, without 9/11, the Enron Scandal would get more attention and could possibly be an issue for Bush as they were his largest campaign contributors in 2000, and with the economy being weak in 2001 and 2002, the Dems in a 9/11 less scenario, would take back the house and gain more seats in the senate in the '02 midterms. All of that happening could set the stage for a primary challenge against Bush in 2004.
 
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